no sides on this game yet · the record
NO Zach Wilson QB out · Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III
TB win probability
ours 64%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NO 19 – TB 24 · TB -4.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
TB -3.75
TB −4.7
1/10
—at the line
| book | TB | NO |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
NO · 12
| Zach Wilson | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | OUT | Knee - MCL |
|
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays | with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
| |||
| Audric Estime | RB | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Oscar Delp | TE | OUT | Hamstring |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| David Long Jr. | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Cameron Jordan | DE | OUT | Hamstring |
| John Ridgeway III | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Khristian Boyd | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Dillon Radunz | G | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Jaylan Ford | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Mason Murphy | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Lorenzo Styles Jr. | S | OUT | Calf · IR |
TB · 11
| Sean Tucker | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| David Sills V | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | OUT | Knee |
|
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays | with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
| |||
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ayden Garnes | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Josh Hayes | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| DeMonte Capehart | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Simmons | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Billy Schrauth | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Mohamed Kamara | LB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Justin Skule | OT | OUT | Oblique |
| Jacob Parrish | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Back |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
TB
Run gameNO offense · TB defense
NO -0.10 #31
TB #3 -0.07
TB
Run block vs frontNO offense · TB defense
NO 94 #28
TB #5 99
NO
Pass yardsNO offense · TB defense
NO 237 #10
TB #27 255
NO
Pass yardsTB offense · NO defense
TB 221 #19
NO #5 196
NO
Pass attackTB offense · NO defense
TB -0.03 #22
NO #12 -0.05
NO
Run gameTB offense · NO defense
TB +0.01 #12
NO #2 -0.07
NO
3rd downTB offense · NO defense
TB 42% #13
NO #5 36%
TB
Pass pro vs rushNO offense · TB defense
NO 2.9 #25
TB #17 2.2
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #12
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
TB
Pass attackNO offense · TB defense
NO -0.08 #27
TB #20 +0.07
NO
Pass pro vs rushTB offense · NO defense
TB 2.2 #17
NO #10 2.6
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #14
TB
3rd downNO offense · TB defense
NO 40% #19
TB #13 40%
NO
Red zoneTB offense · NO defense
TB 62% #19
NO #15 62%
NO
Run block vs frontTB offense · NO defense
TB 115 #21
NO #19 121
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #9
TB
Red zoneNO offense · TB defense
NO 50% #32
TB #32 74%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NO offense against what it runs into
NO OFFENSE
2025
TB DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
even
#20 +0.07
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +28
#3 -0.07
237 #10
Pass yards
OFF +17
#27 255
94 #28
Rush yards
DEF +23
#5 99
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
even
#18 2.2
40% #19
3rd down
even
#13 40%
50% #32
Red zone
even
#32 74%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NOpass pro
rush +8
TBpass rush
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sk#12
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sk#37
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sk#79
2.9 #25sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
NOrun block
front +23
TBrun D
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Calijah Kancey LDE
1.0 tfl#579
Vita Vea NT
7.0 tfl#104
A'Shawn Robinson RDE
3.0 tfl#336
Rueben Bain Jr. WLB
—
Alex Anzalone LILB
4.0 tfl#254
94 #28rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#5 99
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TB offense against what it runs into
TB OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
NO DEFENSE
TB offence: Josh Grizzard called these → Zac Robinson calls it now.
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
DEF +10
#12 -0.05
+0.01 #12
Run game
DEF +10
#2 -0.07
221 #19
Pass yards
DEF +14
#5 196
115 #21
Rush yards
even
#19 121
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
even
#11 2.6
42% #13
3rd down
DEF +8
#5 36%
62% #19
Red zone
even
#15 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TBpass pro
even
NOpass rush
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Cameron Jordan LB
10.5 sk#14
Chase Young DE
10.0 sk#17
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sk#50
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
TBrun block
even
NOrun D
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Cameron Jordan LDE
15.0 tfl#9
Davon Godchaux NT
2.0 tfl#437
Colby Wooden RDE
6.0 tfl#143
Carl Granderson WLB
11.0 tfl#33
Kaden Elliss LILB
10.0 tfl#39
115 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 121