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New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ★ DIV · NFC SOUTH ★

Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 13:00 · Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NO 4 – 6 TB
no sides on this game yet · the record
NO Zach Wilson QB out · Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out    TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III
TB win probability
ours 64% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NO 19 – TB 24 · TB -4.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Buccaneersspread · margin, last 10
TB -3.75
TB −4.7
1/10
at the line
bookTBNO
DK
CZR
Buccaneerstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
NO · 12
Zach WilsonQBOUTCoach's Decision
Alvin KamaraRBOUTKnee - MCL
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays  |  with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
Audric EstimeRBOUTThigh · IR
Oscar DelpTEOUTHamstring
8 more · line, defense, specialists
David Long Jr.CBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cameron JordanDEOUTHamstring
John Ridgeway IIIDTOUTCoach's Decision
Khristian BoydDTOUTCoach's Decision
Dillon RadunzGOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Jaylan FordLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Mason MurphyOTOUTCoach's Decision
Lorenzo Styles Jr.SOUTCalf · IR
TB · 11
Sean TuckerRBOUTHamstring
David Sills VWROUTUndisclosed · IR
Jalen McMillanWROUTKnee
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays  |  with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Ayden GarnesCBOUTCoach's Decision
Josh HayesCBOUTKnee · IR
DeMonte CapehartDTOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah SimmonsDTOUTCoach's Decision
Billy SchrauthGOUTCoach's Decision
Mohamed KamaraLBOUTKnee · IR
Justin SkuleOTOUTOblique
Jacob ParrishCBQUESTIONABLEBack

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
TB Run gameNO offense · TB defense DEF +28 NO -0.10 #31 TB #3 -0.07
TB Run block vs frontNO offense · TB defense FRONT +23 NO 94 #28 TB #5 99
NO Pass yardsNO offense · TB defense OFF +17 NO 237 #10 TB #27 255
NO Pass yardsTB offense · NO defense DEF +14 TB 221 #19 NO #5 196
NO Pass attackTB offense · NO defense DEF +10 TB -0.03 #22 NO #12 -0.05
NO Run gameTB offense · NO defense DEF +10 TB +0.01 #12 NO #2 -0.07
NO 3rd downTB offense · NO defense DEF +8 TB 42% #13 NO #5 36%
TB Pass pro vs rushNO offense · TB defense RUSH +8 NO 2.9 #25 TB #17 2.2 Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #12
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
TB Pass attackNO offense · TB defense DEF +7 NO -0.08 #27 TB #20 +0.07
NO Pass pro vs rushTB offense · NO defense RUSH +7 TB 2.2 #17 NO #10 2.6 Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #14
TB 3rd downNO offense · TB defense DEF +6 NO 40% #19 TB #13 40%
NO Red zoneTB offense · NO defense DEF +4 TB 62% #19 NO #15 62%
NO Run block vs frontTB offense · NO defense FRONT +2 TB 115 #21 NO #19 121 Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #9
TB Red zoneNO offense · TB defense DEF +0 NO 50% #32 TB #32 74%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

TB DEFENSE NO OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 40% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NO offense against what it runs into

NO OFFENSE 2025 TB DEFENSE
-0.08 #27 Pass attack even #20 +0.07
-0.10 #31 Run game DEF +28 #3 -0.07
237 #10 Pass yards OFF +17 #27 255
94 #28 Rush yards DEF +23 #5 99
2.9 #25 Pass pro vs rush even #18 2.2
40% #19 3rd down even #13 40%
50% #32 Red zone even #32 74%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NOpass pro rush +8 TBpass rush
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk#12
Yaya Diaby LB 7.0 sk#37
Vita Vea DT 4.5 sk#79
2.9 #25sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
NOrun block front +23 TBrun D
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Calijah Kancey LDE 1.0 tfl#579
Vita Vea NT 7.0 tfl#104
A'Shawn Robinson RDE 3.0 tfl#336
Rueben Bain Jr. WLB
Alex Anzalone LILB 4.0 tfl#254
94 #28rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#5 99