New Orleans Saints
@
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DIV
MODEL TB 62%
Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 13:00
· Raymond James Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: NO 4 – 6 TB
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NO OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
TB OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NO OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
even
#20 +0.07
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +28
#3 -0.07
237 #10
Pass yards
OFF +17
#27 255
94 #28
Rush yards
DEF +23
#5 99
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
even
#18 2.2
40% #19
3rd down
even
#13 40%
50% #32
Red zone
even
#32 74%
TB OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
DEF +10
#12 -0.05
+0.01 #12
Run game
DEF +10
#2 -0.07
221 #19
Pass yards
DEF +14
#5 196
115 #21
Rush yards
even
#19 121
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
even
#11 2.6
42% #13
3rd down
DEF +8
#5 36%
62% #19
Red zone
even
#15 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NO PASS RUSH
vs
TB PASS PRO
Chase Young DE
10.0 sacks '25
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sacks '25
Tyree Wilson DE
4.0 sacks '25
2.2 #16
sacks allowed /g
#18 2.6
TB PASS RUSH
vs
NO PASS PRO
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sacks '25
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sacks '25
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sacks '25
2.9 #25
sacks allowed /g
#11 2.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NO
Tyler Shough QB
vs #20 PASS D
216.7 pass y/g 7/10
Travis Etienne Jr. RB
2025: JAC
vs #3 RUN D
65.2 rush y/g 5/10
Chris Olave WR1
vs #20 PASS D
72.7 rec y/g 5/10
Jordyn Tyson WR2
vs #20 PASS D
— rec y/g
Devaughn Vele WR3
vs #20 PASS D
32.6 rec y/g 4/9
Juwan Johnson TE
vs #20 PASS D
52.3 rec y/g 5/10
TB
Baker Mayfield QB
vs #12 PASS D
217.2 pass y/g 3/10
Bucky Irving RB
vs #2 RUN D
58.8 rush y/g 7/10
Emeka Egbuka WR1
vs #12 PASS D
55.2 rec y/g 2/10
Chris Godwin Jr. WR2
vs #12 PASS D
40.0 rec y/g 3/9
Jalen McMillan WR3
vs #12 PASS D
44.5 rec y/g 1/4
Cade Otton TE
vs #12 PASS D
38.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.