Cleveland Browns
@
New York Giants
MODEL NYG 60%
Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 13:00
· MetLife Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: CLE 0 – 1 NYG
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CLE OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
NYG OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CLE OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
DEF +16
#16 +0.03
-0.05 #25
Run game
even
#32 +0.17
185 #31
Pass yards
DEF +14
#17 230
97 #27
Rush yards
even
#31 145
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +9
#17 2.2
34% #28
3rd down
DEF +14
#14 40%
55% #28
Red zone
even
#22 68%
NYG OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
DEF +15
#4 -0.13
+0.04 #5
Run game
even
#5 -0.05
218 #21
Pass yards
DEF +18
#3 189
129 #5
Rush yards
OFF +11
#16 116
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +20
#3 3.1
40% #17
3rd down
DEF +9
#8 37%
59% #23
Red zone
even
#20 66%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CLE PASS RUSH
vs
NYG PASS PRO
Jared Verse DE
8.5 sacks '25
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sacks '25
Alex Wright DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.8 #23
sacks allowed /g
#17 3.1
NYG PASS RUSH
vs
CLE PASS PRO
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sacks '25
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sacks '25
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sacks '25
3.0 #26
sacks allowed /g
#3 2.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CLE
Deshaun Watson QB
vs #16 PASS D
— pass y/g
Quinshon Judkins RB
vs #32 RUN D
59.1 rush y/g 3/10
Jerry Jeudy WR1
vs #16 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 4/10
KC Concepcion WR2
vs #16 PASS D
— rec y/g
Denzel Boston WR3
vs #16 PASS D
— rec y/g
Harold Fannin Jr. TE
vs #16 PASS D
45.7 rec y/g 3/10
NYG
Jaxson Dart QB
vs #4 PASS D
162.3 pass y/g 8/10
Cam Skattebo RB
vs #5 RUN D
51.2 rush y/g 5/8
Malik Nabers WR1
vs #4 PASS D
67.8 rec y/g 2/4
Darius Slayton WR2
vs #4 PASS D
38.4 rec y/g 4/10
Darnell Mooney WR3
2025: ATL
vs #4 PASS D
29.5 rec y/g 4/10
Isaiah Likely TE
2025: BAL
vs #4 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.