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Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders ★ DIV · AFC WEST ★

Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 16:25 · Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: DEN 4 – 6 LV
no sides on this game yet · the record
DEN Sam Ehlinger QB out · Tyler Badie RB out · Caleb Lohner TE out · Dallen Bentley TE out    LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out
LV win probability
ours 41% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DEN 23 – LV 20 · DEN -3.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Raidersspread · margin, last 10
LV +4.25
LV +3.0
4/10
at the line
bookLVDEN
DK
CZR
Raiderstotal · points in the game, last 10
41.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

17 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
DEN · 11
Sam EhlingerQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler BadieRBOUTCoach's Decision
Caleb LohnerTEOUTLower Body · IR
Dallen BentleyTEOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Jordan JacksonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler OnyedimDTOUTCoach's Decision
Nick GargiuloGOUTKnee - ACL
Jonathon CooperLBOUTPersonal
Levelle BaileyLBOUTLeg · IR
Frank CrumOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kage CaseyOTOUTCoach's Decision
LV · 6
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WROUTUndisclosed · IR
Brock BowersTEOUTKnee - Meniscus
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays  |  with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
Carter RunyonTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Chigozie AnusiemCBOUTKnee · IR
Keyron CrawfordDEOUTAnkle · IR
Darien PorterCBQUESTIONABLEFoot

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN Run block vs frontLV offense · DEN defense FRONT +30 LV 83 #32 DEN #2 91
DEN 3rd downLV offense · DEN defense DEF +27 LV 34% #29 DEN #2 34%
DEN Pass pro vs rushLV offense · DEN defense RUSH +26 LV 3.2 #27 DEN #1 4.0 Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
DEN Red zoneLV offense · DEN defense DEF +26 LV 56% #27 DEN #1 48%
DEN Pass attackLV offense · DEN defense DEF +23 LV -0.19 #29 DEN #6 -0.12
DEN Run gameLV offense · DEN defense DEF +22 LV -0.26 #32 DEN #10 -0.04
DEN 3rd downDEN offense · LV defense OFF +21 DEN 43% #9 LV #30 47%
DEN Pass yardsLV offense · DEN defense DEF +15 LV 195 #26 DEN #11 212
6 more comparisons, gap under 15
DEN Pass attackDEN offense · LV defense OFF +13 DEN +0.08 #9 LV #22 +0.08
DEN Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · LV defense LINE +4 DEN 1.4 #3 LV #7 2.8 Maxx Crosby DE 10.0 sk #15
LV Pass yardsDEN offense · LV defense DEF +4 DEN 231 #17 LV #13 214
LV Red zoneDEN offense · LV defense DEF +4 DEN 63% #15 LV #11 59%
LV Run block vs frontDEN offense · LV defense FRONT +3 DEN 119 #14 LV #11 111 Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
LV Run gameDEN offense · LV defense DEF +2 DEN +0.00 #16 LV #14 -0.04

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

LV DEFENSE DEN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DEN offense against what it runs into

DEN OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 LV DEFENSE

DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.

+0.08 #9 Pass attack OFF +13 #22 +0.08
+0.00 #16 Run game even #14 -0.04
231 #17 Pass yards even #13 214
119 #16 Rush yards even #17 117
1.4 #1 Pass pro vs rush OFF +20 #21 2.1
43% #9 3rd down OFF +21 #30 47%
63% #15 Red zone even #11 59%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DENpass pro even LVpass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Maxx Crosby DE 10.0 sk#15
Malcolm Koonce DE 4.5 sk#79
Kwity Paye DE 4.0 sk#100
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
DENrun block even LVrun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Jonah Laulu LDE 8.0 tfl#75
Adam Butler NT 3.0 tfl#281
Tonka Hemingway RDE 5.0 tfl#184
Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl#2
Nakobe Dean LILB 7.0 tfl#99
119 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 111