Denver Broncos
@
Las Vegas Raiders
DIV
MODEL LV 37%
Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 16:25
· Allegiant Stadium (dome)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: DEN 4 – 6 LV
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DEN OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
LV OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DEN OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
OFF +14
#23 +0.08
+0.00 #16
Run game
even
#14 -0.04
231 #17
Pass yards
even
#13 214
119 #16
Rush yards
even
#17 117
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +20
#21 2.1
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +21
#30 47%
63% #16
Red zone
even
#11 59%
LV OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
DEF +23
#6 -0.12
-0.26 #32
Run game
DEF +22
#10 -0.04
195 #26
Pass yards
DEF +15
#11 212
77 #32
Rush yards
DEF +30
#2 91
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +31
#1 4.0
34% #29
3rd down
DEF +27
#2 34%
56% #27
Red zone
DEF +26
#1 48%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DEN PASS RUSH
vs
LV PASS PRO
Nik Bonitto LB
15.0 sacks '25
Jonathon Cooper LB
9.0 sacks '25
Zach Allen DE
8.5 sacks '25
3.8 #32
sacks allowed /g
#21 4.0
LV PASS RUSH
vs
DEN PASS PRO
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sacks '25
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sacks '25
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sacks '25
1.4 #1
sacks allowed /g
#1 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DEN
Bo Nix QB
vs #23 PASS D
233.9 pass y/g 5/10
J.K. Dobbins RB
vs #14 RUN D
77.2 rush y/g 5/10
Courtland Sutton WR1
vs #23 PASS D
57.2 rec y/g 5/10
Jaylen Waddle WR2
2025: MIA
vs #23 PASS D
56.9 rec y/g 4/10
Troy Franklin WR3
vs #23 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 4/10
Evan Engram TE
vs #23 PASS D
27.1 rec y/g 4/10
LV
Kirk Cousins QB
2025: ATL
vs #6 PASS D
172.1 pass y/g 6/10
Ashton Jeanty RB
vs #10 RUN D
57.4 rush y/g 4/10
Tre Tucker WR1
vs #6 PASS D
40.9 rec y/g 3/10
Jalen Nailor WR2
2025: MIN
vs #6 PASS D
26.1 rec y/g 4/10
Jack Bech WR3
vs #6 PASS D
16.0 rec y/g 5/10
Brock Bowers TE
vs #6 PASS D
56.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.