Indianapolis Colts
@
Tennessee Titans
DIV
MODEL TEN 40%
Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 13:00
· Nissan Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: IND 6 – 4 TEN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
IND OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
TEN OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
IND OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
OFF +17
#29 +0.17
+0.09 #3
Run game
OFF +20
#23 +0.01
240 #8
Pass yards
OFF +18
#26 248
118 #17
Rush yards
even
#15 115
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
even
#14 2.5
43% #7
3rd down
OFF +14
#21 42%
68% #7
Red zone
OFF +23
#30 71%
TEN OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
DEF +12
#19 +0.04
-0.06 #27
Run game
DEF +18
#9 -0.05
191 #29
Pass yards
even
#31 262
93 #30
Rush yards
DEF +23
#7 102
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +12
#15 2.3
32% #32
3rd down
even
#26 43%
61% #20
Red zone
DEF +15
#5 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
IND PASS RUSH
vs
TEN PASS PRO
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sacks '25
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sacks '25
Adetomiwa Adebawore DT
4.0 sacks '25
3.3 #27
sacks allowed /g
#14 2.3
TEN PASS RUSH
vs
IND PASS PRO
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sacks '25
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sacks '25
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.7 #8
sacks allowed /g
#15 2.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
IND
Daniel Jones QB
vs #29 PASS D
238.5 pass y/g 5/10
Jonathan Taylor RB
vs #23 RUN D
93.2 rush y/g 2/10
Alec Pierce WR1
vs #29 PASS D
66.9 rec y/g 7/10
Josh Downs WR2
vs #29 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 5/10
Ashton Dulin WR3
vs #29 PASS D
8.8 rec y/g 3/10
Tyler Warren TE
vs #29 PASS D
48.1 rec y/g 2/10
TEN
Cam Ward QB
vs #19 PASS D
186.4 pass y/g 5/10
Tony Pollard RB
vs #9 RUN D
63.6 rush y/g 4/10
Carnell Tate WR1
vs #19 PASS D
— rec y/g
Wan'Dale Robinson WR2
2025: NYG
vs #19 PASS D
63.4 rec y/g 3/10
Calvin Ridley WR3
vs #19 PASS D
43.3 rec y/g 2/7
Gunnar Helm TE
vs #19 PASS D
22.3 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.