no sides on this game yet · the record
IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q
TEN win probability
ours 39%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected IND 27 – TEN 23 · IND -3.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
TEN +1.5
TEN +3.7
2/10
—at the line
| book | TEN | IND |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
13 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
IND · 6
| D.J. Montgomery | WR | OUT | Abdomen · IR |
| Carson Towt | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Will Mallory | TE | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Alec Pierce | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Wrist |
|
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
| |||
| Sean McKeon | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Austin Ajiake | LB | OUT | Hamstring |
TEN · 7
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Joshua Williams | CB | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | DE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Cedric Gray | LB | OUT | Concussion |
| Dorian Mausi | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Milo Eifler | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kendell Brooks | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Andre James | C | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND
Red zoneIND offense · TEN defense
IND 68% #7
TEN #30 71%
IND
Run gameIND offense · TEN defense
IND +0.09 #3
TEN #23 +0.02
IND
Pass pro vs rushIND offense · TEN defense
IND 1.8 #7
TEN #25 1.9
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #11
IND
Pass yardsIND offense · TEN defense
IND 240 #8
TEN #26 248
IND
Run gameTEN offense · IND defense
TEN -0.06 #27
IND #9 -0.05
IND
Pass attackIND offense · TEN defense
IND +0.06 #12
TEN #29 +0.17
IND
Red zoneTEN offense · IND defense
TEN 61% #20
IND #5 55%
IND
3rd downIND offense · TEN defense
IND 43% #7
TEN #21 42%
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
IND
Run block vs frontTEN offense · IND defense
TEN 91 #31
IND #17 117
IND
Pass attackTEN offense · IND defense
TEN -0.22 #31
IND #19 +0.04
IND
Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · IND defense
TEN 3.2 #29
IND #17 2.2
IND
3rd downTEN offense · IND defense
TEN 32% #32
IND #26 43%
TEN
Pass yardsTEN offense · IND defense
TEN 191 #29
IND #31 262
IND
Run block vs frontIND offense · TEN defense
IND 116 #18
TEN #19 120
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #6
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units IND offense against what it runs into
IND OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC TEN DEFENSE
TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
OFF +17
#29 +0.17
+0.09 #3
Run game
OFF +20
#23 +0.02
240 #8
Pass yards
OFF +18
#26 248
118 #17
Rush yards
even
#15 115
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
even
#13 2.5
43% #7
3rd down
OFF +14
#21 42%
68% #7
Red zone
OFF +23
#30 71%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
INDpass pro
line +18
TENpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sk#11
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sk#32
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sk#64
1.8 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 1.9
INDrun block
even
TENrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
John Franklin-Myers LDE
6.0 tfl#140
Jeffery Simmons LDT
17.0 tfl#6
Jordan Elliott RDT
1.0 tfl#493
Jermaine Johnson II RDE
5.0 tfl#202
Cedric Gray WLB
7.0 tfl#89
116 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 120
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TEN offense against what it runs into
TEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
IND DEFENSE
TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
DEF +12
#19 +0.04
-0.06 #27
Run game
DEF +18
#9 -0.05
191 #29
Pass yards
even
#31 262
93 #30
Rush yards
DEF +23
#7 102
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#16 2.3
32% #32
3rd down
even
#26 43%
61% #20
Red zone
DEF +15
#5 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TENpass pro
rush +12
INDpass rush
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sk#20
Arden Key DE
4.0 sk#89
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sk#104
3.2 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
TENrun block
front +14
INDrun D
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Arden Key LDE
6.0 tfl#138
Grover Stewart LDT
5.0 tfl#199
DeForest Buckner RDT
9.0 tfl#56
Laiatu Latu RDE
12.0 tfl#25
Jaylon Carlies WLB
—
91 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 117