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Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans ★ DIV · AFC SOUTH ★

Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 13:00 · Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: IND 6 – 4 TEN
no sides on this game yet · the record
IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q
TEN win probability
ours 39% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected IND 27 – TEN 23 · IND -3.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Titansspread · margin, last 10
TEN +1.5
TEN +3.7
2/10
at the line
bookTENIND
DK
CZR
Titanstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

13 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
IND · 6
D.J. MontgomeryWROUTAbdomen · IR
Carson TowtTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Will MalloryTEOUTThumb · IR
Alec PierceWRQUESTIONABLEWrist
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
Sean McKeonTEQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Austin AjiakeLBOUTHamstring
TEN · 7
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Joshua WilliamsCBOUTPectoral · IR
Tanoh KpassagnonDEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cedric GrayLBOUTConcussion
Dorian MausiLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Milo EiflerLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kendell BrooksSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Andre JamesCQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND Red zoneIND offense · TEN defense OFF +23 IND 68% #7 TEN #30 71%
IND Run gameIND offense · TEN defense OFF +20 IND +0.09 #3 TEN #23 +0.02
IND Pass pro vs rushIND offense · TEN defense LINE +18 IND 1.8 #7 TEN #25 1.9 Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #11
IND Pass yardsIND offense · TEN defense OFF +18 IND 240 #8 TEN #26 248
IND Run gameTEN offense · IND defense DEF +18 TEN -0.06 #27 IND #9 -0.05
IND Pass attackIND offense · TEN defense OFF +17 IND +0.06 #12 TEN #29 +0.17
IND Red zoneTEN offense · IND defense DEF +15 TEN 61% #20 IND #5 55%
IND 3rd downIND offense · TEN defense OFF +14 IND 43% #7 TEN #21 42%
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
IND Run block vs frontTEN offense · IND defense FRONT +14 TEN 91 #31 IND #17 117
IND Pass attackTEN offense · IND defense DEF +12 TEN -0.22 #31 IND #19 +0.04
IND Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · IND defense RUSH +12 TEN 3.2 #29 IND #17 2.2
IND 3rd downTEN offense · IND defense DEF +6 TEN 32% #32 IND #26 43%
TEN Pass yardsTEN offense · IND defense OFF +2 TEN 191 #29 IND #31 262
IND Run block vs frontIND offense · TEN defense LINE +1 IND 116 #18 TEN #19 120 Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #6

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

TEN DEFENSE IND OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units IND offense against what it runs into

IND OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC TEN DEFENSE

TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.

+0.06 #12 Pass attack OFF +17 #29 +0.17
+0.09 #3 Run game OFF +20 #23 +0.02
240 #8 Pass yards OFF +18 #26 248
118 #17 Rush yards even #15 115
1.7 #8 Pass pro vs rush even #13 2.5
43% #7 3rd down OFF +14 #21 42%
68% #7 Red zone OFF +23 #30 71%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

INDpass pro line +18 TENpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk#11
John Franklin-Myers DE 7.5 sk#32
Jacob Martin DE 5.5 sk#64
1.8 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 1.9
INDrun block even TENrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
John Franklin-Myers LDE 6.0 tfl#140
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl#6
Jordan Elliott RDT 1.0 tfl#493
Jermaine Johnson II RDE 5.0 tfl#202
Cedric Gray WLB 7.0 tfl#89
116 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 120