Miami Dolphins
@
Green Bay Packers
MODEL GB 66%
Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 13:00
· Lambeau Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: MIA 0 – 2 GB
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
MIA OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
GB OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
MIA OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
even
#22 +0.08
-0.03 #21
Run game
even
#17 -0.02
195 #25
Pass yards
DEF +15
#10 207
120 #13
Rush yards
even
#18 118
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
even
#19 2.1
35% #26
3rd down
DEF +10
#16 41%
64% #14
Red zone
even
#17 64%
GB OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +23
#26 +0.13
-0.01 #19
Run game
OFF +8
#27 +0.04
226 #18
Pass yards
even
#18 231
120 #15
Rush yards
OFF +11
#26 132
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +9
#16 2.3
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +16
#18 41%
63% #15
Red zone
even
#19 66%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
MIA PASS RUSH
vs
GB PASS PRO
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sacks '25
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sacks '25
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sacks '25
1.7 #7
sacks allowed /g
#19 2.3
GB PASS RUSH
vs
MIA PASS PRO
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sacks '25
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sacks '25
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sacks '25
2.2 #17
sacks allowed /g
#16 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
MIA
Malik Willis QB
2025: GB
vs #22 PASS D
105.5 pass y/g 2/4
De'Von Achane RB
vs #17 RUN D
84.4 rush y/g 4/10
Malik Washington WR1
vs #22 PASS D
18.6 rec y/g 5/10
Jalen Tolbert WR2
2025: DAL
vs #22 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 4/10
Tutu Atwell WR3
2025: LAR
vs #22 PASS D
24.0 rec y/g 2/8
Greg Dulcich TE
vs #22 PASS D
37.2 rec y/g 5/9
GB
Jordan Love QB
vs #26 PASS D
231.5 pass y/g 6/10
Josh Jacobs RB
vs #27 RUN D
61.5 rush y/g 5/10
Christian Watson WR1
vs #26 PASS D
58.8 rec y/g 3/10
Jayden Reed WR2
vs #26 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 3/6
Matthew Golden WR3
vs #26 PASS D
29.7 rec y/g 3/10
Tucker Kraft TE
vs #26 PASS D
61.1 rec y/g 2/8
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.