no sides on this game yet · the record
MIA Brady Cook QB out · Jalen Tolbert WR out · Justin Joly TE out GB Josh Jacobs RB out · J. Michael Sturdivant WR out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 70%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIA 19 – GB 25 · GB -6.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
GB -10.5
GB −6.9
1/10
—at the line
| book | GB | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
MIA · 12
| Brady Cook | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jalen Tolbert | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Justin Joly | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| Darrell Baker Jr. | CB | OUT | Undisclosed |
| Reese Taylor | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Storm Duck | CB | OUT | Knee |
| Kenneth Grant | DT | OUT | Leg · IR |
| DJ Campbell | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kyle Louis | LB | OUT | Knee |
| Trey Moore | LB | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Chukwuebuka Godrick | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ronnie Harrison Jr. | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
GB · 11
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OUT | Personal |
| J. Michael Sturdivant | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Savion Williams | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Josh Whyle | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Neck |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Anthony Campbell | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jordon Riley | DT | OUT | Achilles |
| Warren Brinson | DT | OUT | Calf |
| Aaron Banks | G | OUT | Knee |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | OUT | Achilles |
| Travis Glover | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Brandon Cisse | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB
Pass attackGB offense · MIA defense
GB +0.23 #3
MIA #26 +0.13
GB
3rd downGB offense · MIA defense
GB 49% #2
MIA #18 41%
GB
Pass yardsMIA offense · GB defense
MIA 195 #25
GB #10 207
GB
Run block vs frontGB offense · MIA defense
GB 120 #15
MIA #26 132
GB
3rd downMIA offense · GB defense
MIA 35% #26
GB #16 41%
GB
Run gameGB offense · MIA defense
GB -0.01 #19
MIA #27 +0.04
GB
Pass pro vs rushGB offense · MIA defense
GB 1.7 #7
MIA #14 2.3
MIA
Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · GB defense
MIA 2.2 #16
GB #20 2.1
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
MIA
Run block vs frontMIA offense · GB defense
MIA 120 #13
GB #17 118
GB
Run gameMIA offense · GB defense
MIA -0.03 #21
GB #17 -0.02
MIA
Pass attackMIA offense · GB defense
MIA -0.01 #20
GB #23 +0.08
MIA
Red zoneMIA offense · GB defense
MIA 64% #14
GB #17 64%
GB
Red zoneGB offense · MIA defense
GB 63% #16
MIA #19 66%
MIA
Pass yardsGB offense · MIA defense
GB 226 #18
MIA #18 231
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIA offense against what it runs into
MIA OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC GB DEFENSE
MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
even
#23 +0.08
-0.03 #21
Run game
even
#17 -0.02
195 #25
Pass yards
DEF +15
#10 207
120 #13
Rush yards
even
#18 118
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
even
#20 2.1
35% #26
3rd down
DEF +10
#16 41%
64% #14
Red zone
even
#17 64%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MIApass pro
even
GBpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sk#102
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sk#129
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.1
MIArun block
even
GBrun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Karl Brooks LDE
1.0 tfl#600
Javon Hargrave NT
4.0 tfl#265
Devonte Wyatt RDE
6.0 tfl#125
Lukas Van Ness WLB
3.0 tfl#292
Edgerrin Cooper LILB
4.0 tfl#221
120 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 118
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units GB offense against what it runs into
GB OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC MIA DEFENSE
MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +23
#26 +0.13
-0.01 #19
Run game
OFF +8
#27 +0.04
226 #18
Pass yards
even
#18 231
120 #15
Rush yards
OFF +11
#26 132
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +8
#15 2.3
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +16
#18 41%
63% #16
Red zone
even
#19 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
GBpass pro
even
MIApass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sk#66
Clelin Ferrell DE
4.0 sk#101
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sk#104
1.7 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
GBrun block
line +11
MIArun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Chop Robinson LDE
4.0 tfl#237
Jordan Phillips LDT
2.0 tfl#448
Zach Sieler RDT
10.0 tfl#47
Josh Uche RDE
2.0 tfl#420
Jordyn Brooks WLB
13.0 tfl#18
120 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132