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Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 13:00 · Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: MIA 0 – 2 GB
no sides on this game yet · the record
MIA Brady Cook QB out · Jalen Tolbert WR out · Justin Joly TE out    GB Josh Jacobs RB out · J. Michael Sturdivant WR out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 70% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIA 19 – GB 25 · GB -6.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Packersspread · margin, last 10
GB -10.5
GB −6.9
1/10
at the line
bookGBMIA
DK
CZR
Packerstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
MIA · 12
Brady CookQBOUTCoach's Decision
Jalen TolbertWROUTCoach's Decision
Justin JolyTEOUTCoach's Decision
9 more · line, defense, specialists
Darrell Baker Jr.CBOUTUndisclosed
Reese TaylorCBOUTCoach's Decision
Storm DuckCBOUTKnee
Kenneth GrantDTOUTLeg · IR
DJ CampbellGOUTCoach's Decision
Kyle LouisLBOUTKnee
Trey MooreLBOUTAnkle · IR
Chukwuebuka GodrickOTOUTCoach's Decision
Ronnie Harrison Jr.LBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
GB · 11
Josh JacobsRBOUTPersonal
J. Michael SturdivantWROUTCoach's Decision
Savion WilliamsWROUTAnkle · IR
Josh WhyleTEQUESTIONABLENeck
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Anthony CampbellDTOUTCoach's Decision
Jordon RileyDTOUTAchilles
Warren BrinsonDTOUTCalf
Aaron BanksGOUTKnee
Ty'Ron HopperLBOUTAchilles
Travis GloverOTOUTCoach's Decision
Brandon CisseCBQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB Pass attackGB offense · MIA defense OFF +23 GB +0.23 #3 MIA #26 +0.13
GB 3rd downGB offense · MIA defense OFF +16 GB 49% #2 MIA #18 41%
GB Pass yardsMIA offense · GB defense DEF +15 MIA 195 #25 GB #10 207
GB Run block vs frontGB offense · MIA defense LINE +11 GB 120 #15 MIA #26 132
GB 3rd downMIA offense · GB defense DEF +10 MIA 35% #26 GB #16 41%
GB Run gameGB offense · MIA defense OFF +8 GB -0.01 #19 MIA #27 +0.04
GB Pass pro vs rushGB offense · MIA defense LINE +7 GB 1.7 #7 MIA #14 2.3
MIA Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · GB defense LINE +4 MIA 2.2 #16 GB #20 2.1 Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
MIA Run block vs frontMIA offense · GB defense LINE +4 MIA 120 #13 GB #17 118
GB Run gameMIA offense · GB defense DEF +4 MIA -0.03 #21 GB #17 -0.02
MIA Pass attackMIA offense · GB defense OFF +3 MIA -0.01 #20 GB #23 +0.08
MIA Red zoneMIA offense · GB defense OFF +3 MIA 64% #14 GB #17 64%
GB Red zoneGB offense · MIA defense OFF +3 GB 63% #16 MIA #19 66%
MIA Pass yardsGB offense · MIA defense DEF +0 GB 226 #18 MIA #18 231

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

GB DEFENSE MIA OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units MIA offense against what it runs into

MIA OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 OLD DC GB DEFENSE

MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.

-0.01 #20 Pass attack even #23 +0.08
-0.03 #21 Run game even #17 -0.02
195 #25 Pass yards DEF +15 #10 207
120 #13 Rush yards even #18 118
2.2 #16 Pass pro vs rush even #20 2.1
35% #26 3rd down DEF +10 #16 41%
64% #14 Red zone even #17 64%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

MIApass pro even GBpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT 4.0 sk#102
Javon Hargrave NT 3.5 sk#129
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.1
MIArun block even GBrun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Karl Brooks LDE 1.0 tfl#600
Javon Hargrave NT 4.0 tfl#265
Devonte Wyatt RDE 6.0 tfl#125
Lukas Van Ness WLB 3.0 tfl#292
Edgerrin Cooper LILB 4.0 tfl#221
120 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 118