no sides on this game yet · the record
NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams ARI Carson Beck QB out · James Conner RB out · Trey Benson RB out · Reggie Virgil WR out · Tip Reiman TE out
ARI win probability
ours 63%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYJ 21 – ARI 25 · ARI -4.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
ARI +0opened -1.5
ARI −4.3
1/10
—at the line
| book | ARI | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| DK |
41.5
held
9/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
24 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 13
NYJ · 12
| Kene Nwangwu | RB | OUT | Back |
| Tim Patrick | WR | OUT | Groin · IR |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
| Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g) | |||
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| D'Angelo Ponds | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Tre Brown | CB | OUT | Finger · IR |
| Joseph Ossai | DE | OUT | Foot |
| Kingsley Jonathan | DE | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Tyler Baron | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Trevin Wallace | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Blake Grupe | PK | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| VJ Payne | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
ARI · 12
| Carson Beck | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| James Conner | RB | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Trey Benson | RB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Reggie Virgil | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tip Reiman | TE | OUT | Ankle |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Garrett Williams | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Andrew Billings | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kaleb Proctor | DT | OUT | Knee - Meniscus · IR |
| Zachary Carter | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Isaiah Adams | G | OUT | Knee |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | S | OUT | Ribs |
| Kitan Crawford | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ARI
Pass attackARI offense · NYJ defense
ARI +0.00 #17
NYJ #32 +0.25
NYJ
Run block vs frontNYJ offense · ARI defense
NYJ 123 #10
ARI #25 127
Josh Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl #15
ARI
Pass yardsARI offense · NYJ defense
ARI 256 #5
NYJ #16 226
ARI
Pass yardsNYJ offense · ARI defense
NYJ 164 #32
ARI #24 243
ARI
Red zoneNYJ offense · ARI defense
NYJ 53% #29
ARI #21 67%
ARI
Run gameNYJ offense · ARI defense
NYJ -0.06 #29
ARI #21 +0.01
ARI
Pass pro vs rushARI offense · NYJ defense
ARI 3.5 #28
NYJ #31 1.5
ARI
Red zoneARI offense · NYJ defense
ARI 56% #26
NYJ #29 70%
6 more comparisons, gap under 3
NYJ
3rd downNYJ offense · ARI defense
NYJ 35% #27
ARI #29 45%
NYJ
Run block vs frontARI offense · NYJ defense
ARI 93 #31
NYJ #29 139
NYJ
Run gameARI offense · NYJ defense
ARI -0.06 #28
NYJ #26 +0.03
ARI
Pass attackNYJ offense · ARI defense
NYJ -0.18 #28
ARI #27 +0.15
NYJ
3rd downARI offense · NYJ defense
ARI 42% #12
NYJ #12 39%
ARI
Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · ARI defense
NYJ 3.5 #29
ARI #29 1.8
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #10
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYJ offense against what it runs into
NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
ARI DEFENSE
NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
even
#27 +0.15
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +8
#21 +0.01
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +8
#24 243
123 #10
Rush yards
OFF +15
#25 127
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
even
#29 1.8
35% #27
3rd down
even
#29 45%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +8
#21 67%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYJpass pro
even
ARIpass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sk#10
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sk#215
Baron Browning LB
2.0 sk#197
3.5 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
NYJrun block
line +15
ARIrun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Josh Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#15
Roy Lopez LDT
4.0 tfl#254
Walter Nolen III RDT
5.0 tfl#169
Dante Stills RDE
2.0 tfl#418
Jack Gibbens WLB
8.0 tfl#69
123 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 127
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ARI offense against what it runs into
ARI OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE
ARI offence: Drew Petzing called these → Nathaniel Hackett calls it now.
NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
OFF +15
#32 +0.25
-0.06 #28
Run game
even
#26 +0.03
256 #5
Pass yards
OFF +11
#16 226
93 #31
Rush yards
even
#29 139
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
even
#31 1.5
42% #12
3rd down
even
#12 39%
56% #26
Red zone
even
#29 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ARIpass pro
even
NYJpass rush
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sk#28
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sk#68
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sk#97
3.5 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.5
ARIrun block
even
NYJrun D
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Kingsley Enagbare LDE
6.0 tfl#142
T'Vondre Sweat LDT
4.0 tfl#237
Harrison Phillips RDT
5.0 tfl#196
Will McDonald IV RDE
10.0 tfl#41
Demario Davis WLB
6.0 tfl#144
93 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 139