New York Jets
@
Arizona Cardinals
MODEL ARI 63%
Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 16:05
· State Farm Stadium
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: NYJ 0 – 1 ARI
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
ARI OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
even
#27 +0.15
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +8
#21 +0.01
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +8
#24 243
123 #10
Rush yards
OFF +15
#25 127
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
even
#29 1.8
35% #27
3rd down
even
#29 45%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +8
#21 67%
ARI OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
OFF +15
#32 +0.25
-0.06 #28
Run game
even
#26 +0.03
256 #5
Pass yards
OFF +11
#16 226
93 #31
Rush yards
even
#29 139
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
even
#31 1.5
42% #12
3rd down
even
#12 39%
56% #26
Red zone
even
#29 70%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NYJ PASS RUSH
vs
ARI PASS PRO
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sacks '25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sacks '25
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sacks '25
3.5 #28
sacks allowed /g
#29 1.5
ARI PASS RUSH
vs
NYJ PASS PRO
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sacks '25
Jonah Williams DE
3.0 sacks '25
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sacks '25
3.5 #29
sacks allowed /g
#31 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NYJ
Geno Smith QB
2025: LV
vs #27 PASS D
201.7 pass y/g 3/10
Breece Hall RB
vs #21 RUN D
66.6 rush y/g 4/10
Garrett Wilson WR1
vs #27 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 4/7
Adonai Mitchell WR2
vs #27 PASS D
28.3 rec y/g 4/10
Omar Cooper Jr. WR3
vs #27 PASS D
— rec y/g
Kenyon Sadiq TE
vs #27 PASS D
— rec y/g
ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB
vs #32 PASS D
240.4 pass y/g 8/10
Jeremiyah Love RB
vs #26 RUN D
— rush y/g
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR1
vs #32 PASS D
50.7 rec y/g 5/10
Michael Wilson WR2
vs #32 PASS D
59.2 rec y/g 6/10
Kendrick Bourne WR3
2025: SF
vs #32 PASS D
36.7 rec y/g 1/10
Trey McBride TE
vs #32 PASS D
72.9 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.