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Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 16:05 · State Farm Stadium · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NYJ 0 – 1 ARI
no sides on this game yet · the record
NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams    ARI Carson Beck QB out · James Conner RB out · Trey Benson RB out · Reggie Virgil WR out · Tip Reiman TE out
ARI win probability
ours 63% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYJ 21 – ARI 25 · ARI -4.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Cardinalsspread · margin, last 10
ARI +0opened -1.5
ARI −4.3
1/10
at the line
bookARINYJ
CZR
DK
Cardinalstotal · points in the game, last 10
41.5
held
9/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

24 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 13
NYJ · 12
Kene NwangwuRBOUTBack
Tim PatrickWROUTGroin · IR
Omar Cooper Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
9 more · line, defense, specialists
D'Angelo PondsCBOUTCalf
Tre BrownCBOUTFinger · IR
Joseph OssaiDEOUTFoot
Kingsley JonathanDEOUTThigh · IR
Tyler BaronDEOUTKnee
Trevin WallaceLBOUTCoach's Decision
Blake GrupePKOUTCoach's Decision
VJ PayneSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Minkah FitzpatrickSQUESTIONABLEGroin
ARI · 12
Carson BeckQBOUTCoach's Decision
James ConnerRBOUTFoot · IR
Trey BensonRBOUTKnee · IR
Reggie VirgilWROUTCoach's Decision
Tip ReimanTEOUTAnkle
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Garrett WilliamsCBOUTAchilles
Andrew BillingsDTOUTCoach's Decision
Kaleb ProctorDTOUTKnee - Meniscus · IR
Zachary CarterDTOUTKnee · IR
Isaiah AdamsGOUTKnee
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSOUTRibs
Kitan CrawfordSQUESTIONABLEAnkle

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ARI Pass attackARI offense · NYJ defense OFF +15 ARI +0.00 #17 NYJ #32 +0.25
NYJ Run block vs frontNYJ offense · ARI defense LINE +15 NYJ 123 #10 ARI #25 127 Josh Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl #15
ARI Pass yardsARI offense · NYJ defense OFF +11 ARI 256 #5 NYJ #16 226
ARI Pass yardsNYJ offense · ARI defense DEF +8 NYJ 164 #32 ARI #24 243
ARI Red zoneNYJ offense · ARI defense DEF +8 NYJ 53% #29 ARI #21 67%
ARI Run gameNYJ offense · ARI defense DEF +8 NYJ -0.06 #29 ARI #21 +0.01
ARI Pass pro vs rushARI offense · NYJ defense LINE +3 ARI 3.5 #28 NYJ #31 1.5
ARI Red zoneARI offense · NYJ defense OFF +3 ARI 56% #26 NYJ #29 70%
6 more comparisons, gap under 3
NYJ 3rd downNYJ offense · ARI defense OFF +2 NYJ 35% #27 ARI #29 45%
NYJ Run block vs frontARI offense · NYJ defense FRONT +2 ARI 93 #31 NYJ #29 139
NYJ Run gameARI offense · NYJ defense DEF +2 ARI -0.06 #28 NYJ #26 +0.03
ARI Pass attackNYJ offense · ARI defense DEF +1 NYJ -0.18 #28 ARI #27 +0.15
NYJ 3rd downARI offense · NYJ defense DEF +0 ARI 42% #12 NYJ #12 39%
ARI Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · ARI defense RUSH +0 NYJ 3.5 #29 ARI #29 1.8 Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #10

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

ARI DEFENSE NYJ OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NYJ offense against what it runs into

NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 ARI DEFENSE

NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.

-0.18 #28 Pass attack even #27 +0.15
-0.06 #29 Run game DEF +8 #21 +0.01
164 #32 Pass yards DEF +8 #24 243
123 #10 Rush yards OFF +15 #25 127
3.5 #29 Pass pro vs rush even #29 1.8
35% #27 3rd down even #29 45%
53% #29 Red zone DEF +8 #21 67%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NYJpass pro even ARIpass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk#10
Roy Lopez DT 2.0 sk#215
Baron Browning LB 2.0 sk#197
3.5 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
NYJrun block line +15 ARIrun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Josh Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl#15
Roy Lopez LDT 4.0 tfl#254
Walter Nolen III RDT 5.0 tfl#169
Dante Stills RDE 2.0 tfl#418
Jack Gibbens WLB 8.0 tfl#69
123 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 127