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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans ★ DIV · AFC SOUTH ★

Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 13:00 · Reliant Stadium · astroturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: JAX 3 – 7 HOU
no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Brian Thomas Jr. WR q → Parker Washington    HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out
HOU win probability
ours 57% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected JAX 21 – HOU 24 · HOU -2.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Texansspread · margin, last 10
HOU -3
HOU −2.4
7/9
at the line
bookHOUJAC
DK
CZR
Texanstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 8:00 PM
JAX · 5
Brian Thomas Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Next up: Parker Washington WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 53 yds · 61% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Jr.: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 50 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
JAX without him, 3 games last season: 42% pass · 31.7 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (14): 56% pass · 24.2 pts · 62 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Sam MustipherCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Zach DurfeeDEOUTUpper Body · IR
Patrick MekariGOUTBack · IR
B.J. Green IIDEQUESTIONABLEElbow
HOU · 5
Jayden HigginsWROUTKnee - ACL · IR
Tank DellWROUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Kayden McDonaldDTOUTAnkle · IR
Jake HummelLBDOUBTFULGroin
Henry To'oTo'oLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX Run block vs frontHOU offense · JAX defense FRONT +22 HOU 111 #23 JAX #1 86
JAX Run gameHOU offense · JAX defense DEF +17 HOU -0.08 #30 JAX #13 -0.04
HOU Run block vs frontJAX offense · HOU defense FRONT +14 JAX 116 #17 HOU #3 93 Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #5Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #9
JAX Pass attackHOU offense · JAX defense DEF +12 HOU +0.04 #15 JAX #3 -0.14
HOU 3rd downJAX offense · HOU defense DEF +11 JAX 40% #18 HOU #7 37%
HOU Pass attackJAX offense · HOU defense DEF +10 JAX +0.06 #11 HOU #1 -0.19
HOU Run gameJAX offense · HOU defense DEF +9 JAX -0.00 #17 HOU #8 -0.05
JAX 3rd downHOU offense · JAX defense DEF +7 HOU 38% #24 JAX #17 41%
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
HOU Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · HOU defense RUSH +7 JAX 2.2 #16 HOU #9 2.6 Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #10
JAX Red zoneHOU offense · JAX defense DEF +6 HOU 51% #31 JAX #25 68%
HOU Pass yardsHOU offense · JAX defense OFF +5 HOU 233 #14 JAX #19 231
HOU Pass yardsJAX offense · HOU defense DEF +4 JAX 237 #11 HOU #7 205
JAX Red zoneJAX offense · HOU defense OFF +4 JAX 65% #12 HOU #16 63%
JAX Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · JAX defense RUSH +1 HOU 2.0 #12 JAX #11 2.6

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

HOU DEFENSE JAX OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units JAX offense against what it runs into

JAX OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 HOU DEFENSE
+0.06 #11 Pass attack DEF +10 #1 -0.19
-0.00 #17 Run game DEF +9 #8 -0.05
237 #11 Pass yards even #7 205
115 #20 Rush yards DEF +16 #4 94
2.4 #20 Pass pro vs rush DEF +13 #7 2.8
40% #18 3rd down DEF +11 #7 37%
65% #12 Red zone even #16 63%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

JAXpass pro even HOUpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk#10
Jadeveon Clowney OLB 8.5 sk#22
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#9 2.6
JAXrun block front +14 HOUrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl#5
Tommy Togiai LDT 6.0 tfl#158
Sheldon Rankins RDT 5.0 tfl#188
Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl#9
Henry To'oTo'o WLB 9.0 tfl#63
116 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 93