Jacksonville Jaguars
@
Houston Texans
DIV
MODEL HOU 58%
Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 13:00
· Reliant Stadium
· astroturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: JAC 3 – 7 HOU
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
JAC OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
HOU OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
JAC OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
DEF +10
#1 -0.19
-0.01 #18
Run game
DEF +10
#8 -0.05
237 #11
Pass yards
even
#7 205
115 #20
Rush yards
DEF +16
#4 94
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +13
#7 2.8
40% #18
3rd down
DEF +11
#7 37%
65% #12
Red zone
even
#16 63%
HOU OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
DEF +12
#3 -0.14
-0.08 #30
Run game
DEF +17
#13 -0.04
233 #14
Pass yards
even
#19 231
109 #22
Rush yards
DEF +21
#1 86
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +18
#27 1.9
38% #24
3rd down
even
#17 41%
51% #31
Red zone
even
#25 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
JAC PASS RUSH
vs
HOU PASS PRO
Josh Hines-Allen DE
9.0 sacks '25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sacks '25
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sacks '25
1.8 #9
sacks allowed /g
#7 1.9
HOU PASS RUSH
vs
JAC PASS PRO
Danielle Hunter DE
18.0 sacks '25
Will Anderson Jr. DE
15.5 sacks '25
Sheldon Rankins DT
4.5 sacks '25
2.4 #20
sacks allowed /g
#27 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
JAC
Trevor Lawrence QB
vs #1 PASS D
234.1 pass y/g 6/10
Bhayshul Tuten RB
vs #8 RUN D
22.4 rush y/g 4/10
Brian Thomas Jr. WR1
vs #1 PASS D
48.5 rec y/g 5/10
Jakobi Meyers WR2
vs #1 PASS D
49.8 rec y/g 4/10
Parker Washington WR3
vs #1 PASS D
56.1 rec y/g 6/10
Brenton Strange TE
vs #1 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
HOU
C.J. Stroud QB
vs #3 PASS D
218.9 pass y/g 5/10
David Montgomery RB
2025: DET
vs #13 RUN D
42.1 rush y/g 2/10
Nico Collins WR1
vs #3 PASS D
71.1 rec y/g 6/10
Jayden Higgins WR2
vs #3 PASS D
32.8 rec y/g 7/10
Jaylin Noel WR3
vs #3 PASS D
15.4 rec y/g 1/10
Dalton Schultz TE
vs #3 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.