no sides on this game yet · the record
BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman
PIT win probability
ours 48%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BAL 24 – PIT 23 · BAL -0.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
PIT +2.75
PIT +0.6
6/10
—at the line
| book | PIT | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
12 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
BAL · 8
| Adam Randall | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Devontez Walker | WR | OUT | Groin |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | DOUBTFUL | Wrist |
| Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g) | |||
| Zay Flowers | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Bilhal Kone | CB | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | DT | OUT | Neck |
| Teddye Buchanan | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| T.J. Tampa | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Donte Kent | CB | OUT | Undisclosed |
| Joey Porter Jr. | CB | OUT | Back |
| Jack Driscoll | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| DeShon Elliott | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PIT
Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · BAL defense
PIT 1.9 #8
BAL #28 1.8
BAL
Run block vs frontPIT offense · BAL defense
PIT 98 #26
BAL #8 106
BAL
Run gameBAL offense · PIT defense
BAL +0.10 #2
PIT #20 +0.00
PIT
Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · PIT defense
BAL 2.5 #20
PIT #4 3.1
PIT
Red zoneBAL offense · PIT defense
BAL 60% #22
PIT #9 58%
BAL
Run block vs frontBAL offense · PIT defense
BAL 162 #1
PIT #13 114
BAL
3rd downBAL offense · PIT defense
BAL 41% #15
PIT #25 43%
PIT
Pass attackBAL offense · PIT defense
BAL -0.04 #24
PIT #17 +0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
PIT
Pass yardsPIT offense · BAL defense
PIT 214 #22
BAL #29 259
PIT
Pass attackPIT offense · BAL defense
PIT +0.03 #16
BAL #21 +0.07
BAL
3rd downPIT offense · BAL defense
PIT 41% #14
BAL #10 38%
BAL
Red zonePIT offense · BAL defense
PIT 66% #11
BAL #7 55%
BAL
Run gamePIT offense · BAL defense
PIT +0.02 #10
BAL #7 -0.05
BAL
Pass yardsBAL offense · PIT defense
BAL 193 #28
PIT #30 261
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BAL offense against what it runs into
BAL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC PIT DEFENSE
BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.
PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
even
#17 +0.03
+0.10 #2
Run game
OFF +18
#20 +0.00
193 #28
Pass yards
even
#30 261
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +11
#13 113
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +16
#5 2.8
41% #15
3rd down
OFF +10
#25 43%
60% #22
Red zone
DEF +13
#9 58%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BALpass pro
rush +16
PITpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sk#34
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sk#43
2.5 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 3.1
BALrun block
line +12
PITrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Derrick Harmon LDE
1.0 tfl#575
Keeanu Benton NT
6.0 tfl#148
Cameron Heyward RDE
9.0 tfl#62
T.J. Watt WLB
10.0 tfl#47
Payton Wilson LILB
6.0 tfl#137
162 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 114
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PIT offense against what it runs into
PIT OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC BAL DEFENSE
PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
even
#21 +0.07
+0.02 #10
Run game
even
#7 -0.05
214 #22
Pass yards
even
#29 259
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +16
#10 107
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +19
#28 1.8
41% #14
3rd down
even
#10 38%
66% #11
Red zone
even
#7 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PITpass pro
line +20
BALpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sk#47
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sk#72
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sk#80
1.9 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
PITrun block
front +18
BALrun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE
2.0 tfl#377
Travis Jones NT
9.0 tfl#51
Calais Campbell RDE
9.0 tfl#58
Tavius Robinson WLB
3.0 tfl#316
Roquan Smith LILB
5.0 tfl#185
98 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 106