Baltimore Ravens
@
Pittsburgh Steelers
DIV
MODEL PIT 51%
Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 13:00
· Acrisure Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: BAL 3 – 8 PIT
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
BAL OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
PIT OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
BAL OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
even
#17 +0.03
+0.10 #2
Run game
OFF +18
#20 +0.00
193 #28
Pass yards
even
#30 261
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +11
#13 113
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +15
#6 2.8
41% #15
3rd down
OFF +10
#25 43%
60% #22
Red zone
DEF +13
#9 58%
PIT OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
even
#21 +0.07
+0.02 #10
Run game
even
#7 -0.05
214 #22
Pass yards
even
#29 259
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +16
#10 107
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +19
#30 1.8
41% #14
3rd down
even
#10 38%
66% #11
Red zone
even
#7 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
BAL PASS RUSH
vs
PIT PASS PRO
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sacks '25
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sacks '25
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sacks '25
1.8 #11
sacks allowed /g
#6 1.8
PIT PASS RUSH
vs
BAL PASS PRO
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sacks '25
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sacks '25
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sacks '25
2.6 #21
sacks allowed /g
#30 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
BAL
Lamar Jackson QB
vs #17 PASS D
196.1 pass y/g 4/10
Derrick Henry RB
vs #20 RUN D
93.8 rush y/g 7/10
Zay Flowers WR1
vs #17 PASS D
71.2 rec y/g 5/10
Rashod Bateman WR2
vs #17 PASS D
17.2 rec y/g 3/10
Devontez Walker WR3
vs #17 PASS D
17.0 rec y/g 4/8
Mark Andrews TE
vs #17 PASS D
24.8 rec y/g 3/10
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB
vs #21 PASS D
204.0 pass y/g 4/10
Jaylen Warren RB
vs #7 RUN D
58.9 rush y/g 6/10
DK Metcalf WR1
vs #21 PASS D
55.8 rec y/g 1/10
Michael Pittman Jr. WR2
2025: IND
vs #21 PASS D
46.1 rec y/g 3/10
Roman Wilson WR3
vs #21 PASS D
18.4 rec y/g 2/9
Pat Freiermuth TE
vs #21 PASS D
31.5 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.