BallKnowMe
More
NFL
9–6 · 60% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers ★ DIV · AFC NORTH ★

Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 13:00 · Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: BAL 3 – 8 PIT
no sides on this game yet · the record
BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman
PIT win probability
ours 48% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BAL 24 – PIT 23 · BAL -0.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Steelersspread · margin, last 10
PIT +2.75
PIT +0.6
6/10
at the line
bookPITBAL
DK
CZR
Steelerstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
BAL · 8
Adam RandallRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Devontez WalkerWROUTGroin
Ja'Kobi LaneWRDOUBTFULWrist
Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Zay FlowersWRQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Bilhal KoneCBOUTLower Body · IR
Nnamdi MadubuikeDTOUTNeck
Teddye BuchananLBOUTKnee - ACL
T.J. TampaCBQUESTIONABLEKnee
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Donte KentCBOUTUndisclosed
Joey Porter Jr.CBOUTBack
Jack DriscollOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
DeShon ElliottSOUTUndisclosed · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PIT Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · BAL defense LINE +20 PIT 1.9 #8 BAL #28 1.8
BAL Run block vs frontPIT offense · BAL defense FRONT +18 PIT 98 #26 BAL #8 106
BAL Run gameBAL offense · PIT defense OFF +18 BAL +0.10 #2 PIT #20 +0.00
PIT Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · PIT defense RUSH +16 BAL 2.5 #20 PIT #4 3.1
PIT Red zoneBAL offense · PIT defense DEF +13 BAL 60% #22 PIT #9 58%
BAL Run block vs frontBAL offense · PIT defense LINE +12 BAL 162 #1 PIT #13 114
BAL 3rd downBAL offense · PIT defense OFF +10 BAL 41% #15 PIT #25 43%
PIT Pass attackBAL offense · PIT defense DEF +7 BAL -0.04 #24 PIT #17 +0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
PIT Pass yardsPIT offense · BAL defense OFF +7 PIT 214 #22 BAL #29 259
PIT Pass attackPIT offense · BAL defense OFF +5 PIT +0.03 #16 BAL #21 +0.07
BAL 3rd downPIT offense · BAL defense DEF +4 PIT 41% #14 BAL #10 38%
BAL Red zonePIT offense · BAL defense DEF +4 PIT 66% #11 BAL #7 55%
BAL Run gamePIT offense · BAL defense DEF +3 PIT +0.02 #10 BAL #7 -0.05
BAL Pass yardsBAL offense · PIT defense OFF +2 BAL 193 #28 PIT #30 261

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

PIT DEFENSE BAL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 51% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units BAL offense against what it runs into

BAL OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC PIT DEFENSE

BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.
PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.

-0.04 #24 Pass attack even #17 +0.03
+0.10 #2 Run game OFF +18 #20 +0.00
193 #28 Pass yards even #30 261
157 #2 Rush yards OFF +11 #13 113
2.6 #21 Pass pro vs rush DEF +16 #5 2.8
41% #15 3rd down OFF +10 #25 43%
60% #22 Red zone DEF +13 #9 58%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

BALpass pro rush +16 PITpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Alex Highsmith LB 9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB 7.5 sk#34
T.J. Watt OLB 7.0 sk#43
2.5 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 3.1
BALrun block line +12 PITrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Derrick Harmon LDE 1.0 tfl#575
Keeanu Benton NT 6.0 tfl#148
Cameron Heyward RDE 9.0 tfl#62
T.J. Watt WLB 10.0 tfl#47
Payton Wilson LILB 6.0 tfl#137
162 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 114