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Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 13:00 · Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CIN 2 – 0 CAR
no sides on this game yet · the record
CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette
CAR win probability
ours 47% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CIN 26 – CAR 25 · CIN -1.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Panthersspread · margin, last 10
CAR +2.75
CAR +1.0
5/10
at the line
bookCARCIN
DK
CZR
Pantherstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

5 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Ja'Sir TaylorCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Shemar StewartDEOUTKnee
Brian Parker IIOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
CAR · 2
Jalen CokerWRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays  |  with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Patrick Jones IILBOUTBack

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CIN 3rd downCIN offense · CAR defense OFF +27 CIN 44% #5 CAR #32 48%
CIN Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · CAR defense LINE +19 CIN 1.9 #10 CAR #29 1.8
CIN Run gameCIN offense · CAR defense OFF +16 CIN +0.02 #8 CAR #24 +0.02
CAR Run block vs frontCAR offense · CIN defense LINE +15 CAR 117 #15 CIN #30 139
CIN Red zoneCIN offense · CAR defense OFF +11 CIN 76% #1 CAR #12 60%
CIN Pass yardsCIN offense · CAR defense OFF +7 CIN 250 #7 CAR #14 215
CAR Run gameCAR offense · CIN defense OFF +7 CAR -0.03 #22 CIN #29 +0.09
CAR Pass attackCAR offense · CIN defense OFF +3 CAR -0.05 #25 CIN #28 +0.16
6 more comparisons, gap under 3
CIN Run block vs frontCIN offense · CAR defense LINE +3 CIN 95 #29 CAR #32 148
CAR 3rd downCAR offense · CIN defense OFF +2 CAR 36% #25 CIN #27 44%
CIN Pass yardsCAR offense · CIN defense DEF +2 CAR 194 #27 CIN #25 246
CAR Red zoneCAR offense · CIN defense OFF +2 CAR 59% #24 CIN #26 69%
CIN Pass attackCIN offense · CAR defense OFF +1 CIN -0.03 #23 CAR #24 +0.11
CIN Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · CIN defense RUSH +1 CAR 2.0 #13 CIN #12 2.4

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

CAR DEFENSE CIN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Pass-heavy · 35% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CIN offense against what it runs into

CIN OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CAR DEFENSE
-0.03 #23 Pass attack even #24 +0.11
+0.02 #8 Run game OFF +16 #24 +0.02
250 #7 Pass yards even #14 215
94 #29 Rush yards DEF +9 #20 123
2.1 #14 Pass pro vs rush OFF +16 #30 1.8
44% #5 3rd down OFF +27 #32 48%
76% #1 Red zone OFF +11 #12 60%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CINpass pro line +19 CARpass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Tyrel Dodson LB 5.0 sk#75
Derrick Brown DT 5.0 sk#78
Jaelan Phillips LB 5.0 sk#71
1.9 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
CINrun block even CARrun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Derrick Brown LDE 5.0 tfl#196
Lee Hunter NT
Bobby Brown III RDE 3.0 tfl#351
Patrick Jones II WLB 2.0 tfl#450
Devin Lloyd LILB 6.0 tfl#153
95 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 148