Cincinnati Bengals
@
Carolina Panthers
MODEL CAR 54%
Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 13:00
· Bank of America Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: CIN 2 – 0 CAR
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CIN OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
CAR OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CIN OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
even
#24 +0.11
+0.02 #8
Run game
OFF +16
#24 +0.02
250 #7
Pass yards
even
#14 215
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +9
#20 123
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +14
#28 1.8
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +27
#32 48%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +11
#12 60%
CAR OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
even
#28 +0.16
-0.03 #22
Run game
even
#29 +0.09
194 #27
Pass yards
even
#25 246
116 #19
Rush yards
OFF +13
#32 147
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +10
#23 2.0
36% #25
3rd down
even
#27 44%
59% #24
Red zone
even
#26 69%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CIN PASS RUSH
vs
CAR PASS PRO
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sacks '25
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sacks '25
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sacks '25
2.1 #13
sacks allowed /g
#28 2.0
CAR PASS RUSH
vs
CIN PASS PRO
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sacks '25
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sacks '25
Nic Scourton LB
5.0 sacks '25
2.1 #14
sacks allowed /g
#23 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CIN
Joe Burrow QB
vs #24 PASS D
226.1 pass y/g 5/8
Chase Brown RB
vs #24 RUN D
59.9 rush y/g 7/10
Ja'Marr Chase WR1
vs #24 PASS D
88.2 rec y/g 7/10
Tee Higgins WR2
vs #24 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 7/10
Andrei Iosivas WR3
vs #24 PASS D
29.0 rec y/g 4/10
Mike Gesicki TE
vs #24 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
CAR
Bryce Young QB
vs #28 PASS D
192.6 pass y/g 4/10
Chuba Hubbard RB
vs #29 RUN D
34.8 rush y/g 2/10
Tetairoa McMillan WR1
vs #28 PASS D
60.8 rec y/g 4/10
Jalen Coker WR2
vs #28 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 6/10
Xavier Legette WR3
vs #28 PASS D
23.2 rec y/g 2/10
Tommy Tremble TE
vs #28 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.