no sides on this game yet · the record
CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette
CAR win probability
ours 47%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CIN 26 – CAR 25 · CIN -1.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CAR +2.75
CAR +1.0
5/10
—at the line
| book | CAR | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
5 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ja'Sir Taylor | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Shemar Stewart | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Brian Parker II | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
CAR · 2
| Jalen Coker | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
|
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays | with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
| |||
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Patrick Jones II | LB | OUT | Back |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CIN
3rd downCIN offense · CAR defense
CIN 44% #5
CAR #32 48%
CIN
Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · CAR defense
CIN 1.9 #10
CAR #29 1.8
CIN
Run gameCIN offense · CAR defense
CIN +0.02 #8
CAR #24 +0.02
CAR
Run block vs frontCAR offense · CIN defense
CAR 117 #15
CIN #30 139
CIN
Red zoneCIN offense · CAR defense
CIN 76% #1
CAR #12 60%
CIN
Pass yardsCIN offense · CAR defense
CIN 250 #7
CAR #14 215
CAR
Run gameCAR offense · CIN defense
CAR -0.03 #22
CIN #29 +0.09
CAR
Pass attackCAR offense · CIN defense
CAR -0.05 #25
CIN #28 +0.16
6 more comparisons, gap under 3
CIN
Run block vs frontCIN offense · CAR defense
CIN 95 #29
CAR #32 148
CAR
3rd downCAR offense · CIN defense
CAR 36% #25
CIN #27 44%
CIN
Pass yardsCAR offense · CIN defense
CAR 194 #27
CIN #25 246
CAR
Red zoneCAR offense · CIN defense
CAR 59% #24
CIN #26 69%
CIN
Pass attackCIN offense · CAR defense
CIN -0.03 #23
CAR #24 +0.11
CIN
Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · CIN defense
CAR 2.0 #13
CIN #12 2.4
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CIN offense against what it runs into
CIN OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CAR DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
even
#24 +0.11
+0.02 #8
Run game
OFF +16
#24 +0.02
250 #7
Pass yards
even
#14 215
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +9
#20 123
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +16
#30 1.8
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +27
#32 48%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +11
#12 60%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CINpass pro
line +19
CARpass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sk#75
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sk#78
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sk#71
1.9 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
CINrun block
even
CARrun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Derrick Brown LDE
5.0 tfl#196
Lee Hunter NT
—
Bobby Brown III RDE
3.0 tfl#351
Patrick Jones II WLB
2.0 tfl#450
Devin Lloyd LILB
6.0 tfl#153
95 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 148
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CAR offense against what it runs into
CAR OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CIN DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
even
#28 +0.16
-0.03 #22
Run game
even
#29 +0.09
194 #27
Pass yards
even
#25 246
116 #19
Rush yards
OFF +13
#32 147
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +11
#24 2.0
36% #25
3rd down
even
#27 44%
59% #24
Red zone
even
#26 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CARpass pro
even
CINpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sk#60
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sk#108
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sk#113
2.0 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.4
CARrun block
line +15
CINrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Boye Mafe LDE
4.0 tfl#254
Dexter Lawrence II LDT
4.0 tfl#217
Jonathan Allen RDT
7.0 tfl#113
Myles Murphy RDE
6.0 tfl#126
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB
4.0 tfl#235
117 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 139