no sides on this game yet · the record
DAL Malik Davis RB out · DJ Rogers TE out
LAR win probability
ours 71%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DAL 23 – LAR 30 · LAR -7.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LAR -6.75
LAR −7.3
5/10
—at the line
| book | LAR | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
52.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
11 designations · as of 3:45 PM
DAL · 8
| Malik Davis | RB | OUT | Hip · IR |
| DJ Rogers | TE | OUT | Knee · IR |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Matt Hennessy | C | OUT | Neck · IR |
| Devin Moore | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Tyler Smith | G | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Marist Liufau | LB | OUT | Forearm · IR |
| Malik Hooker | S | DOUBTFUL | Forearm |
| DeMarvion Overshown | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
LAR · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Myles Garrett | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Nate Landman | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
| Omar Speights | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hip |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR
Pass yardsLAR offense · DAL defense
LAR 277 #2
DAL #32 266
LAR
Pass attackLAR offense · DAL defense
LAR +0.23 #2
DAL #31 +0.22
LAR
Red zoneLAR offense · DAL defense
LAR 68% #6
DAL #31 72%
LAR
Run gameLAR offense · DAL defense
LAR +0.03 #7
DAL #31 +0.09
LAR
Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · DAL defense
LAR 1.1 #1
DAL #23 2.0
DAL
Pass yardsDAL offense · LAR defense
DAL 279 #1
LAR #20 235
LAR
Run block vs frontLAR offense · DAL defense
LAR 126 #8
DAL #25 131
LAR
3rd downLAR offense · DAL defense
LAR 40% #16
DAL #31 48%
6 more comparisons, gap under 15
DAL
Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · LAR defense
DAL 1.5 #5
LAR #18 2.2
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #10
LAR
Red zoneDAL offense · LAR defense
DAL 62% #17
LAR #8 56%
DAL
Run block vs frontDAL offense · LAR defense
DAL 119 #12
LAR #20 120
DAL
Pass attackDAL offense · LAR defense
DAL +0.16 #5
LAR #10 -0.07
LAR
Run gameDAL offense · LAR defense
DAL +0.01 #15
LAR #12 -0.04
LAR
3rd downDAL offense · LAR defense
DAL 43% #8
LAR #6 36%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DAL offense against what it runs into
DAL OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LAR DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
even
#10 -0.07
+0.01 #15
Run game
even
#12 -0.04
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +19
#20 235
126 #9
Rush yards
even
#12 111
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
even
#9 2.8
43% #8
3rd down
even
#6 36%
62% #17
Red zone
DEF +9
#8 56%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DALpass pro
line +13
LARpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB
12.0 sk#10
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sk#36
1.5 #5sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
DALrun block
line +8
LARrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Kobie Turner LDE
9.0 tfl#53
Poona Ford NT
4.0 tfl#265
Aaron Donald RDE
—
Byron Young WLB
12.0 tfl#19
Nate Landman LILB
8.0 tfl#83
119 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#20 120
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAR offense against what it runs into
LAR OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC DAL DEFENSE
LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
OFF +29
#31 +0.22
+0.03 #7
Run game
OFF +24
#31 +0.09
277 #2
Pass yards
OFF +30
#32 266
127 #7
Rush yards
OFF +16
#23 125
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +23
#25 2.0
40% #16
3rd down
OFF +15
#31 48%
68% #6
Red zone
OFF +25
#31 72%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LARpass pro
line +22
DALpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Von Miller OLB
9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sk#30
James Houston DE
5.5 sk#63
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#23 2.0
LARrun block
line +17
DALrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Quinnen Williams LDE
10.0 tfl#43
Otito Ogbonnia NT
3.0 tfl#308
Kenny Clark RDE
6.0 tfl#147
Rashan Gary WLB
7.0 tfl#101
DeMarvion Overshown LILB
1.0 tfl#472
126 #8rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 131