Dallas Cowboys
@
Los Angeles Rams
MODEL LAR 72%
Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 16:25
· SoFi Stadium (dome)
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: DAL 2 – 0 LAR
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DAL OFFENSE
vs
LAR DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
LAR OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DAL OFFENSE
vs
LAR DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
even
#10 -0.07
+0.01 #15
Run game
even
#12 -0.04
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +19
#20 235
126 #9
Rush yards
even
#12 111
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
even
#9 2.8
43% #8
3rd down
even
#6 36%
62% #17
Red zone
DEF +9
#8 56%
LAR OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
OFF +29
#31 +0.22
+0.03 #7
Run game
OFF +24
#31 +0.09
277 #2
Pass yards
OFF +30
#32 266
127 #7
Rush yards
OFF +16
#23 125
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +22
#24 2.0
40% #16
3rd down
OFF +15
#31 48%
68% #6
Red zone
OFF +25
#31 72%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DAL PASS RUSH
vs
LAR PASS PRO
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sacks '25
James Houston DE
5.5 sacks '25
Kenny Clark NT
3.0 sacks '25
1.4 #2
sacks allowed /g
#9 2.0
LAR PASS RUSH
vs
DAL PASS PRO
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sacks '25
Byron Young LB
12.0 sacks '25
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sacks '25
1.8 #10
sacks allowed /g
#24 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DAL
Dak Prescott QB
vs #10 PASS D
267.8 pass y/g 6/10
Javonte Williams RB
vs #12 RUN D
75.1 rush y/g 5/10
CeeDee Lamb WR1
vs #10 PASS D
82.8 rec y/g 4/10
George Pickens WR2
vs #10 PASS D
84.1 rec y/g 4/10
Ryan Flournoy WR3
vs #10 PASS D
31.7 rec y/g 4/10
Jake Ferguson TE
vs #10 PASS D
35.3 rec y/g 4/10
LAR
Matthew Stafford QB
vs #31 PASS D
282.1 pass y/g 4/10
Kyren Williams RB
vs #31 RUN D
71.8 rush y/g 5/10
Puka Nacua WR1
vs #31 PASS D
107.7 rec y/g 5/10
Davante Adams WR2
vs #31 PASS D
57.3 rec y/g 7/10
Jordan Whittington WR3
vs #31 PASS D
12.1 rec y/g 3/10
Colby Parkinson TE
vs #31 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 7/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.