BallKnowMe
More
NFL
9–6 · 60% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups
Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 16:25 · SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: DAL 2 – 0 LAR
no sides on this game yet · the record
DAL Malik Davis RB out · DJ Rogers TE out
LAR win probability
ours 71% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DAL 23 – LAR 30 · LAR -7.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Ramsspread · margin, last 10
LAR -6.75
LAR −7.3
5/10
at the line
bookLARDAL
DK
CZR
Ramstotal · points in the game, last 10
52.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

11 designations · as of 3:45 PM
DAL · 8
Malik DavisRBOUTHip · IR
DJ RogersTEOUTKnee · IR
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Matt HennessyCOUTNeck · IR
Devin MooreCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Tyler SmithGOUTThumb · IR
Marist LiufauLBOUTForearm · IR
Malik HookerSDOUBTFULForearm
DeMarvion OvershownLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
LAR · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Myles GarrettDEOUTKnee
Nate LandmanLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Omar SpeightsLBQUESTIONABLEHip

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR Pass yardsLAR offense · DAL defense OFF +30 LAR 277 #2 DAL #32 266
LAR Pass attackLAR offense · DAL defense OFF +29 LAR +0.23 #2 DAL #31 +0.22
LAR Red zoneLAR offense · DAL defense OFF +25 LAR 68% #6 DAL #31 72%
LAR Run gameLAR offense · DAL defense OFF +24 LAR +0.03 #7 DAL #31 +0.09
LAR Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · DAL defense LINE +22 LAR 1.1 #1 DAL #23 2.0
DAL Pass yardsDAL offense · LAR defense OFF +19 DAL 279 #1 LAR #20 235
LAR Run block vs frontLAR offense · DAL defense LINE +17 LAR 126 #8 DAL #25 131
LAR 3rd downLAR offense · DAL defense OFF +15 LAR 40% #16 DAL #31 48%
6 more comparisons, gap under 15
DAL Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · LAR defense LINE +13 DAL 1.5 #5 LAR #18 2.2 Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #10
LAR Red zoneDAL offense · LAR defense DEF +9 DAL 62% #17 LAR #8 56%
DAL Run block vs frontDAL offense · LAR defense LINE +8 DAL 119 #12 LAR #20 120
DAL Pass attackDAL offense · LAR defense OFF +5 DAL +0.16 #5 LAR #10 -0.07
LAR Run gameDAL offense · LAR defense DEF +3 DAL +0.01 #15 LAR #12 -0.04
LAR 3rd downDAL offense · LAR defense DEF +2 DAL 43% #8 LAR #6 36%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

LAR DEFENSE DAL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DAL offense against what it runs into

DAL OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 LAR DEFENSE
+0.16 #5 Pass attack even #10 -0.07
+0.01 #15 Run game even #12 -0.04
279 #1 Pass yards OFF +19 #20 235
126 #9 Rush yards even #12 111
1.8 #11 Pass pro vs rush even #9 2.8
43% #8 3rd down even #6 36%
62% #17 Red zone DEF +9 #8 56%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DALpass pro line +13 LARpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB 12.0 sk#10
Kobie Turner DE 7.0 sk#36
1.5 #5sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
DALrun block line +8 LARrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Kobie Turner LDE 9.0 tfl#53
Poona Ford NT 4.0 tfl#265
Aaron Donald RDE
Byron Young WLB 12.0 tfl#19
Nate Landman LILB 8.0 tfl#83
119 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#20 120