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Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings ★ DIV · NFC NORTH ★

Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 20:20 · U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: DET 6 – 4 MIN
no sides on this game yet · the record
DET Isiah Pacheco RB out    MIN Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz · Jordan Mason RB q → Demond Claiborne
MIN win probability
ours 54% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DET 23 – MIN 25 · MIN -1.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Vikingsspread · margin, last 10
MIN +2
MIN −1.4
6/10
at the line
bookMINDET
DK
CZR
Vikingstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
2/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

11 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
DET · 6
Isiah PachecoRBOUTBack · IR
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Cade MaysCOUTWrist · IR
Payton TurnerDEOUTBack · IR
Christian MahoganyGQUESTIONABLEHip
Juice ScruggsGQUESTIONABLEKnee
Blake MillerOTQUESTIONABLEKnee
MIN · 5
Ben YurosekTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kyler MurrayQBQUESTIONABLEConcussion
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Jordan MasonRBQUESTIONABLEThumb
Next up: Demond Claiborne RB3
Mason: 10 car · 47 rush yds · 1 tgt · 43% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
MIN without him, 1 game last season: 36% pass · 23.0 pts · 44 plays  |  with him (16): 55% pass · 23.3 pts · 53 plays
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael JurgensCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Tyler BattyLBOUTKnee - ACL · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · DET defense RUSH +30 MIN 3.4 #32 DET #2 3.3 Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
DET 3rd downMIN offense · DET defense DEF +22 MIN 32% #31 DET #9 37%
MIN Run gameDET offense · MIN defense DEF +18 DET -0.04 #24 MIN #6 -0.05
MIN 3rd downDET offense · MIN defense DEF +17 DET 39% #20 MIN #3 35%
DET Pass attackMIN offense · DET defense DEF +16 MIN -0.19 #30 DET #14 -0.01
MIN Pass pro vs rushDET offense · MIN defense RUSH +12 DET 2.1 #15 MIN #3 3.1
DET Run block vs frontMIN offense · DET defense FRONT +12 MIN 108 #24 DET #12 111 Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #13
DET Pass yardsMIN offense · DET defense DEF +9 MIN 189 #30 DET #21 237
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
DET Run block vs frontDET offense · MIN defense LINE +4 DET 125 #10 MIN #14 116 Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
MIN Red zoneDET offense · MIN defense DEF +3 DET 70% #5 MIN #2 49%
MIN Pass attackDET offense · MIN defense DEF +2 DET +0.17 #4 MIN #2 -0.15
MIN Red zoneMIN offense · DET defense OFF +2 MIN 61% #21 DET #23 68%
DET Run gameMIN offense · DET defense DEF +2 MIN -0.01 #20 DET #18 -0.01
MIN Pass yardsDET offense · MIN defense DEF +1 DET 269 #3 MIN #2 178

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

MIN DEFENSE DET OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DET offense against what it runs into

DET OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 MIN DEFENSE

DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.

+0.17 #4 Pass attack even #2 -0.15
-0.04 #24 Run game DEF +18 #6 -0.05
269 #3 Pass yards even #2 178
120 #14 Rush yards even #21 124
2.3 #18 Pass pro vs rush DEF +14 #4 2.9
39% #20 3rd down DEF +17 #3 35%
70% #5 Red zone even #2 49%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DETpass pro rush +12 MINpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller
Dallas Turner LB 8.0 sk#27
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB 7.0 sk#38
Eric Wilson LB 6.5 sk#47
2.1 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#3 3.1
DETrun block even MINrun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE 8.0 tfl#78
Caleb Banks NT
Jalen Redmond RDE 12.0 tfl#19
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB 11.0 tfl#31
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl#6
125 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#14 116