Detroit Lions
@
Minnesota Vikings
DIV
MODEL MIN 50%
Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 20:20
· U.S. Bank Stadium (dome)
· sportturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: DET 6 – 4 MIN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DET OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
MIN OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DET OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
even
#2 -0.15
-0.04 #24
Run game
DEF +18
#6 -0.05
269 #3
Pass yards
even
#2 178
120 #14
Rush yards
even
#21 124
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#4 2.9
39% #20
3rd down
DEF +17
#3 35%
70% #5
Red zone
even
#2 49%
MIN OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
DEF +16
#14 -0.01
-0.01 #20
Run game
even
#18 -0.01
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +9
#21 237
108 #23
Rush yards
DEF +9
#14 115
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +26
#5 2.8
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +22
#9 37%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#23 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DET PASS RUSH
vs
MIN PASS PRO
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sacks '25
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sacks '25
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sacks '25
3.5 #31
sacks allowed /g
#4 2.8
MIN PASS RUSH
vs
DET PASS PRO
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sacks '25
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sacks '25
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sacks '25
2.3 #18
sacks allowed /g
#5 2.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DET
Jared Goff QB
vs #2 PASS D
268.5 pass y/g 7/10
Jahmyr Gibbs RB
vs #6 RUN D
71.9 rush y/g 3/10
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1
vs #2 PASS D
82.4 rec y/g 5/10
Jameson Williams WR2
vs #2 PASS D
65.7 rec y/g 8/10
Isaac TeSlaa WR3
vs #2 PASS D
17.1 rec y/g 5/10
Sam LaPorta TE
vs #2 PASS D
54.3 rec y/g 4/9
MIN
Kyler Murray QB
2025: ARI
vs #14 PASS D
192.4 pass y/g 3/5
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
vs #18 RUN D
45.7 rush y/g 6/10
Justin Jefferson WR1
vs #14 PASS D
61.6 rec y/g 2/10
Jordan Addison WR2
vs #14 PASS D
43.6 rec y/g 3/10
Jauan Jennings WR3
2025: SF
vs #14 PASS D
41.8 rec y/g 5/10
T.J. Hockenson TE
vs #14 PASS D
29.2 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.