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Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 13:00 · Northwest Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: ATL 1 – 4 WAS
no sides on this game yet · the record
ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out    WAS Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates
WAS win probability
ours 73% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ATL 20 – WAS 28 · WAS -7.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Commandersspread · margin, last 10
WAS -3.75
WAS −7.9
2/10
at the line
bookWASATL
DK
CZR
Commanderstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

11 designations · as of 8:00 PM
ATL · 7
Michael Penix Jr.QBOUTKnee - ACL
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
Tua TagovailoaQBOUTOblique
Trey SermonRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Billy Bowman Jr.CBOUTAchilles
Da'Shawn HandDTOUTQuadriceps
Cameron WilliamsOLOUTAnkle · IR
Chris LindstromGQUESTIONABLEConcussion
WAS · 4
Chig OkonkwoTEQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Frankie LuvuLBQUESTIONABLEGroin
Jordan MageeLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Tyler OwensSQUESTIONABLEAnkle

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ATL Run block vs frontATL offense · WAS defense LINE +22 ATL 125 #9 WAS #31 141
WAS Run gameWAS offense · ATL defense OFF +16 WAS +0.02 #9 ATL #25 +0.03
ATL Red zoneATL offense · WAS defense OFF +15 ATL 65% #13 WAS #28 70%
WAS Run block vs frontWAS offense · ATL defense LINE +12 WAS 134 #4 ATL #16 116
ATL Pass attackATL offense · WAS defense OFF +9 ATL -0.01 #21 WAS #30 +0.20
ATL Pass yardsWAS offense · ATL defense DEF +9 WAS 196 #24 ATL #15 222
WAS Red zoneWAS offense · ATL defense OFF +9 WAS 70% #4 ATL #13 62%
ATL Pass yardsATL offense · WAS defense OFF +8 ATL 218 #20 WAS #28 257
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
WAS 3rd downATL offense · WAS defense DEF +7 ATL 34% #30 WAS #23 42%
ATL 3rd downWAS offense · ATL defense DEF +7 WAS 38% #22 ATL #15 40%
ATL Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · ATL defense RUSH +6 WAS 2.0 #11 ATL #5 3.1 James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
ATL Pass attackWAS offense · ATL defense DEF +5 WAS -0.01 #18 ATL #13 -0.03
ATL Run gameATL offense · WAS defense OFF +5 ATL -0.03 #23 WAS #28 +0.07
ATL Pass pro vs rushATL offense · WAS defense LINE +1 ATL 1.9 #9 WAS #10 2.6

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

WAS DEFENSE ATL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units ATL offense against what it runs into

ATL OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC WAS DEFENSE

ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.
WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.

-0.01 #21 Pass attack OFF +9 #30 +0.20
-0.03 #23 Run game even #28 +0.07
218 #20 Pass yards OFF +8 #28 257
126 #8 Rush yards OFF +22 #30 142
1.5 #4 Pass pro vs rush OFF +10 #14 2.5
34% #30 3rd down even #23 42%
65% #13 Red zone OFF +15 #28 70%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

ATLpass pro even WASpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
K'Lavon Chaisson LB 7.5 sk#29
Odafe Oweh LB 7.5 sk#30
Dorance Armstrong DE 5.5 sk#58
1.9 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
ATLrun block line +22 WASrun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Tim Settle LDE 3.0 tfl#350
Daron Payne NT 7.0 tfl#98
Javon Kinlaw RDE 5.0 tfl#202
Odafe Oweh WLB 9.0 tfl#59
Frankie Luvu LILB 5.0 tfl#194
125 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#31 141