no sides on this game yet · the record
ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out WAS Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates
WAS win probability
ours 73%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ATL 20 – WAS 28 · WAS -7.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
WAS -3.75
WAS −7.9
2/10
—at the line
| book | WAS | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
11 designations · as of 8:00 PM
ATL · 7
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
|
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays | with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
| |||
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | OUT | Oblique |
| Trey Sermon | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Billy Bowman Jr. | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Da'Shawn Hand | DT | OUT | Quadriceps |
| Cameron Williams | OL | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Chris Lindstrom | G | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
WAS · 4
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Frankie Luvu | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
| Jordan Magee | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
| Tyler Owens | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ATL
Run block vs frontATL offense · WAS defense
ATL 125 #9
WAS #31 141
WAS
Run gameWAS offense · ATL defense
WAS +0.02 #9
ATL #25 +0.03
ATL
Red zoneATL offense · WAS defense
ATL 65% #13
WAS #28 70%
WAS
Run block vs frontWAS offense · ATL defense
WAS 134 #4
ATL #16 116
ATL
Pass attackATL offense · WAS defense
ATL -0.01 #21
WAS #30 +0.20
ATL
Pass yardsWAS offense · ATL defense
WAS 196 #24
ATL #15 222
WAS
Red zoneWAS offense · ATL defense
WAS 70% #4
ATL #13 62%
ATL
Pass yardsATL offense · WAS defense
ATL 218 #20
WAS #28 257
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
WAS
3rd downATL offense · WAS defense
ATL 34% #30
WAS #23 42%
ATL
3rd downWAS offense · ATL defense
WAS 38% #22
ATL #15 40%
ATL
Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · ATL defense
WAS 2.0 #11
ATL #5 3.1
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
ATL
Pass attackWAS offense · ATL defense
WAS -0.01 #18
ATL #13 -0.03
ATL
Run gameATL offense · WAS defense
ATL -0.03 #23
WAS #28 +0.07
ATL
Pass pro vs rushATL offense · WAS defense
ATL 1.9 #9
WAS #10 2.6
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ATL offense against what it runs into
ATL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC WAS DEFENSE
ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.
WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
OFF +9
#30 +0.20
-0.03 #23
Run game
even
#28 +0.07
218 #20
Pass yards
OFF +8
#28 257
126 #8
Rush yards
OFF +22
#30 142
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +10
#14 2.5
34% #30
3rd down
even
#23 42%
65% #13
Red zone
OFF +15
#28 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ATLpass pro
even
WASpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
7.5 sk#29
Odafe Oweh LB
7.5 sk#30
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sk#58
1.9 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
ATLrun block
line +22
WASrun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Tim Settle LDE
3.0 tfl#350
Daron Payne NT
7.0 tfl#98
Javon Kinlaw RDE
5.0 tfl#202
Odafe Oweh WLB
9.0 tfl#59
Frankie Luvu LILB
5.0 tfl#194
125 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#31 141
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units WAS offense against what it runs into
WAS OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ATL DEFENSE
WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
even
#13 -0.03
+0.02 #9
Run game
OFF +16
#25 +0.03
196 #24
Pass yards
DEF +9
#15 222
135 #4
Rush yards
OFF +20
#24 126
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +13
#2 3.4
38% #22
3rd down
even
#15 40%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +9
#13 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
WASpass pro
even
ATLpass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sk#20
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sk#50
2.0 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 3.1
WASrun block
line +12
ATLrun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
LaCale London LDE
7.0 tfl#106
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT
6.0 tfl#131
Brandon Dorlus RDE
11.0 tfl#34
Za'Darius Smith WLB
2.0 tfl#424
Kendal Daniels LILB
—
134 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 116