Atlanta Falcons
@
Washington Commanders
MODEL WAS 54%
Week 15 · 2026-12-20 · 13:00
· Northwest Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: ATL 1 – 4 WAS
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
ATL OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
WAS OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
ATL OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
OFF +9
#30 +0.20
-0.03 #23
Run game
even
#28 +0.07
218 #20
Pass yards
OFF +8
#28 257
126 #8
Rush yards
OFF +22
#30 142
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +9
#13 2.5
34% #30
3rd down
even
#23 42%
65% #13
Red zone
OFF +15
#28 70%
WAS OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
even
#13 -0.03
+0.02 #9
Run game
OFF +16
#25 +0.03
196 #24
Pass yards
DEF +9
#15 222
135 #4
Rush yards
OFF +20
#24 126
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +13
#2 3.4
38% #22
3rd down
even
#15 40%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +9
#13 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
ATL PASS RUSH
vs
WAS PASS PRO
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sacks '25
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sacks '25
Jalon Walker LB
5.5 sacks '25
2.2 #15
sacks allowed /g
#13 3.4
WAS PASS RUSH
vs
ATL PASS PRO
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
10.5 sacks '25
Odafe Oweh LB
10.5 sacks '25
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.5 #4
sacks allowed /g
#2 2.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
ATL
Tua Tagovailoa QB
2025: MIA
vs #30 PASS D
190.0 pass y/g 5/10
Bijan Robinson RB
vs #28 RUN D
86.9 rush y/g 4/10
Drake London WR1
vs #30 PASS D
76.6 rec y/g 6/10
Jahan Dotson WR2
2025: PHI
vs #30 PASS D
16.4 rec y/g 3/10
Olamide Zaccheaus WR3
2025: CHI
vs #30 PASS D
20.6 rec y/g 3/10
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE
vs #30 PASS D
54.6 rec y/g 5/10
WAS
Jayden Daniels QB
vs #13 PASS D
180.3 pass y/g 4/7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
vs #25 RUN D
47.4 rush y/g 2/10
Terry McLaurin WR1
vs #13 PASS D
58.2 rec y/g 4/10
Antonio Williams WR2
vs #13 PASS D
— rec y/g
Luke McCaffrey WR3
vs #13 PASS D
22.6 rec y/g 4/9
Chig Okonkwo TE
2025: TEN
vs #13 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.