no sides on this game yet · the record
PHI Eli Stowers TE out
PHI win probability
ours 51%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAR 23 – PHI 23 · PHI -0.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
PHI +2.25
PHI −0.4
6/10
—at the line
| book | PHI | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
0/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
9 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
LAR · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Myles Garrett | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Nate Landman | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
| Omar Speights | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hip |
| Kam Curl | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
PHI · 5
| Eli Stowers | TE | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jakorian Bennett | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Landon Dickerson | G | OUT | Knee |
| Jonathan Greenard | LB | OUT | Pectoral |
| Andre' Sam | S | OUT | Foot · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR
Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · PHI defense
LAR 1.1 #1
PHI #19 2.1
LAR
3rd downPHI offense · LAR defense
PHI 38% #21
LAR #6 36%
LAR
Run block vs frontLAR offense · PHI defense
LAR 126 #8
PHI #22 126
LAR
Run gameLAR offense · PHI defense
LAR +0.03 #7
PHI #16 -0.02
PHI
Run block vs frontPHI offense · LAR defense
PHI 119 #13
LAR #20 120
LAR
3rd downLAR offense · PHI defense
LAR 40% #16
PHI #22 42%
PHI
Red zonePHI offense · LAR defense
PHI 74% #2
LAR #8 56%
LAR
Pass yardsLAR offense · PHI defense
LAR 277 #2
PHI #6 204
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
LAR
Red zoneLAR offense · PHI defense
LAR 68% #6
PHI #10 59%
LAR
Pass attackLAR offense · PHI defense
LAR +0.23 #2
PHI #5 -0.12
LAR
Pass attackPHI offense · LAR defense
PHI +0.04 #13
LAR #10 -0.07
LAR
Pass yardsPHI offense · LAR defense
PHI 206 #23
LAR #20 235
LAR
Run gamePHI offense · LAR defense
PHI +0.01 #14
LAR #12 -0.04
PHI
Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · LAR defense
PHI 2.2 #17
LAR #18 2.2
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #10
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAR offense against what it runs into
LAR OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
PHI DEFENSE
LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
even
#5 -0.12
+0.03 #7
Run game
OFF +9
#16 -0.02
277 #2
Pass yards
even
#6 204
127 #7
Rush yards
OFF +15
#22 124
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +10
#12 2.5
40% #16
3rd down
even
#22 42%
68% #6
Red zone
even
#10 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LARpass pro
line +18
PHIpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sk#46
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sk#56
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sk#82
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
LARrun block
line +14
PHIrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Jalen Carter LDE
5.0 tfl#207
Moro Ojomo RDE
6.0 tfl#137
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB
1.0 tfl#471
Zack Baun LILB
7.0 tfl#105
Jihaad Campbell RILB
2.0 tfl#379
126 #8rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 126
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PHI offense against what it runs into
PHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LAR DEFENSE
PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
even
#10 -0.07
+0.01 #14
Run game
even
#12 -0.04
206 #23
Pass yards
even
#20 235
117 #18
Rush yards
even
#12 111
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
even
#9 2.8
38% #21
3rd down
DEF +15
#6 36%
74% #2
Red zone
even
#8 56%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PHIpass pro
even
LARpass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB
12.0 sk#10
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sk#35
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
PHIrun block
even
LARrun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Kobie Turner LDE
9.0 tfl#56
Poona Ford NT
4.0 tfl#218
Aaron Donald RDE
—
Byron Young WLB
12.0 tfl#21
Nate Landman LILB
8.0 tfl#86
119 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#20 120