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Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 13:00 · Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: LAR 0 – 4 PHI
no sides on this game yet · the record
PHI Eli Stowers TE out
PHI win probability
ours 51% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAR 23 – PHI 23 · PHI -0.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Eaglesspread · margin, last 10
PHI +2.25
PHI −0.4
6/10
at the line
bookPHILAR
DK
CZR
Eaglestotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
0/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

9 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
LAR · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Myles GarrettDEOUTKnee
Nate LandmanLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Omar SpeightsLBQUESTIONABLEHip
Kam CurlSQUESTIONABLEAnkle
PHI · 5
Eli StowersTEOUTHamstring · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Jakorian BennettCBOUTKnee · IR
Landon DickersonGOUTKnee
Jonathan GreenardLBOUTPectoral
Andre' SamSOUTFoot · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · PHI defense LINE +18 LAR 1.1 #1 PHI #19 2.1
LAR 3rd downPHI offense · LAR defense DEF +15 PHI 38% #21 LAR #6 36%
LAR Run block vs frontLAR offense · PHI defense LINE +14 LAR 126 #8 PHI #22 126
LAR Run gameLAR offense · PHI defense OFF +9 LAR +0.03 #7 PHI #16 -0.02
PHI Run block vs frontPHI offense · LAR defense LINE +7 PHI 119 #13 LAR #20 120
LAR 3rd downLAR offense · PHI defense OFF +6 LAR 40% #16 PHI #22 42%
PHI Red zonePHI offense · LAR defense OFF +6 PHI 74% #2 LAR #8 56%
LAR Pass yardsLAR offense · PHI defense OFF +4 LAR 277 #2 PHI #6 204
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
LAR Red zoneLAR offense · PHI defense OFF +4 LAR 68% #6 PHI #10 59%
LAR Pass attackLAR offense · PHI defense OFF +3 LAR +0.23 #2 PHI #5 -0.12
LAR Pass attackPHI offense · LAR defense DEF +3 PHI +0.04 #13 LAR #10 -0.07
LAR Pass yardsPHI offense · LAR defense DEF +3 PHI 206 #23 LAR #20 235
LAR Run gamePHI offense · LAR defense DEF +2 PHI +0.01 #14 LAR #12 -0.04
PHI Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · LAR defense LINE +1 PHI 2.2 #17 LAR #18 2.2 Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #10

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

PHI DEFENSE LAR OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LAR offense against what it runs into

LAR OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 PHI DEFENSE

LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.

+0.23 #2 Pass attack even #5 -0.12
+0.03 #7 Run game OFF +9 #16 -0.02
277 #2 Pass yards even #6 204
127 #7 Rush yards OFF +15 #22 124
1.4 #2 Pass pro vs rush OFF +10 #12 2.5
40% #16 3rd down even #22 42%
68% #6 Red zone even #10 59%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LARpass pro line +18 PHIpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Jalyx Hunt LB 6.5 sk#46
Moro Ojomo DT 6.0 sk#56
Jordan Davis DT 4.5 sk#82
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
LARrun block line +14 PHIrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Jalen Carter LDE 5.0 tfl#207
Moro Ojomo RDE 6.0 tfl#137
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB 1.0 tfl#471
Zack Baun LILB 7.0 tfl#105
Jihaad Campbell RILB 2.0 tfl#379
126 #8rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 126