Los Angeles Rams
@
Philadelphia Eagles
MODEL PHI 49%
Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 13:00
· Lincoln Financial Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: LAR 0 – 4 PHI
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
LAR OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
PHI OFFENSE
vs
LAR DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
LAR OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
even
#5 -0.12
+0.03 #7
Run game
OFF +9
#16 -0.02
277 #2
Pass yards
even
#6 204
127 #7
Rush yards
OFF +15
#22 124
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +10
#12 2.5
40% #16
3rd down
even
#22 42%
68% #6
Red zone
even
#10 59%
PHI OFFENSE
vs
LAR DEFENSE
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
even
#10 -0.07
+0.01 #14
Run game
even
#12 -0.04
206 #23
Pass yards
even
#20 235
117 #18
Rush yards
even
#12 111
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
even
#9 2.8
38% #21
3rd down
DEF +15
#6 36%
74% #2
Red zone
even
#8 56%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
LAR PASS RUSH
vs
PHI PASS PRO
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sacks '25
Byron Young LB
12.0 sacks '25
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sacks '25
2.1 #12
sacks allowed /g
#12 2.8
PHI PASS RUSH
vs
LAR PASS PRO
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sacks '25
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sacks '25
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sacks '25
1.4 #2
sacks allowed /g
#9 2.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
LAR
Matthew Stafford QB
vs #5 PASS D
282.1 pass y/g 4/10
Kyren Williams RB
vs #16 RUN D
71.8 rush y/g 5/10
Puka Nacua WR1
vs #5 PASS D
107.7 rec y/g 5/10
Davante Adams WR2
vs #5 PASS D
57.3 rec y/g 7/10
Jordan Whittington WR3
vs #5 PASS D
12.1 rec y/g 3/10
Colby Parkinson TE
vs #5 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 7/10
PHI
Jalen Hurts QB
vs #10 PASS D
199.5 pass y/g 3/10
Saquon Barkley RB
vs #12 RUN D
73.3 rush y/g 6/10
DeVonta Smith WR1
vs #10 PASS D
59.9 rec y/g 3/10
Makai Lemon WR2
vs #10 PASS D
— rec y/g
Dontayvion Wicks WR3
2025: GB
vs #10 PASS D
25.5 rec y/g 3/10
Dallas Goedert TE
vs #10 PASS D
39.0 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.