Matchups — Week 4 16 games · heat = 2025 rank gap
SUN OCT 4 · 4:25 PM
Levi's Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
DEN Denver Broncos at
14-3
#14
#3
SF San Francisco 49ers
12-5
#10
#13
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PRESF 56%
PASS PRO
Broncos #1
→
49ers #32
+31
PASS ATTACK
Broncos #9
→
49ers #25
+16
SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM
Soldier Field · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
NYJ New York Jets at
3-14
#29
#31
CHI Chicago Bears
11-6
#9
#23
SPREADCHI -8.5
TOTAL45.5
BOOKCHI 77%
MODEL·PRECHI 71%
PASS PRO
Bears #3
→
Jets #31
+28
PASS ATTACK
Bears #10
→
Jets #32
+22
RUN GAME
Bears #4
→
Jets #26
+22
SUN OCT 4 · 9:30 AM
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
IND Indianapolis Colts at
8-9
#8
#21
WAS Washington Commanders
5-12
#22
#27
SPREADWAS -1.5
TOTAL50.5
BOOKWAS 52%
MODEL·PREWAS 42%
RUN GAME
Colts #3
→
Commanders #28
+25
RED ZONE
Colts #7
→
Commanders #28
+21
PASS ATTACK
Colts #12
→
Commanders #30
+18
SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM
Paycor Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
JAC Jacksonville Jaguars at
13-4
#6
#8
CIN Cincinnati Bengals
6-11
#12
#30
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PRECIN 45%
RED ZONE
Bengals #1
→
Jaguars #25
+24
PASS ATTACK
Jaguars #11
→
Bengals #28
+17
RED ZONE
Jaguars #12
→
Bengals #26
+14
SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM · DIV
Highmark Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
NE New England Patriots at
14-3
#2
#4
BUF Buffalo Bills
12-5
#5
#12
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PREBUF 58%
RED ZONE
Bills #3
→
Patriots #27
+24
RUN GAME
Patriots #13
→
Bills #30
+17
RED ZONE
Patriots #9
→
Bills #24
+15
SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM
M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
TEN Tennessee Titans at
3-14
#30
#28
BAL Baltimore Ravens
8-9
#11
#18
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PREBAL 73%
RUN GAME
Ravens #2
→
Titans #23
+21
RED ZONE
Ravens #22
→
Titans #30
+8
SUN OCT 4 · 8:20 PM
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
DET Detroit Lions at
9-8
#4
#22
CAR Carolina Panthers
8-9
#27
#15
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PRECAR 42%
PASS ATTACK
Lions #4
→
Panthers #24
+20
PASS PRO
Lions #18
→
Panthers #28
+10
SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
GB Green Bay Packers at
9-7-1
#16
#11
TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8-9
#18
#20
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PRETB 52%
PASS ATTACK
Packers #3
→
Buccaneers #20
+17
RED ZONE
Packers #15
→
Buccaneers #32
+17
PASS PRO
Packers #7
→
Buccaneers #18
+11
SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM
MetLife Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
ARI Arizona Cardinals at
3-14
#23
#29
NYG New York Giants
4-13
#17
#26
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PRENYG 57%
RUN GAME
Giants #5
→
Cardinals #21
+16
PASS ATTACK
Giants #19
→
Cardinals #27
+8
SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM
Reliant Stadium
'25OFFDEF
DAL Dallas Cowboys at
7-9-1
#7
#32
HOU Houston Texans
12-5
#13
#2
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PREHOU 69%
PASS ATTACK
Texans #15
→
Cowboys #31
+16
PASS PRO
Texans #9
→
Cowboys #24
+15
SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
LAR Los Angeles Rams at
12-5
#1
#10
PHI Philadelphia Eagles
11-6
#19
#5
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PREPHI 49%
PASS PRO
Rams #2
→
Eagles #12
+10
RUN GAME
Rams #7
→
Eagles #16
+9
THU OCT 1 · 8:15 PM · DIV
Huntington Bank Field · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
PIT Pittsburgh Steelers at
10-7
#15
#17
CLE Cleveland Browns
5-12
#31
#14
SPREADPIT -2.5
TOTAL40.5
BOOKCLE 45%
MODEL·PRECLE 46%
RED ZONE
Steelers #11
→
Browns #20
+9
SUN OCT 4 · 4:25 PM · DIV
Allegiant Stadium · dome
'25OFFDEF
KAN Kansas City Chiefs at
6-11
#21
#6
LV Las Vegas Raiders
3-14
#32
#25
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PRELV 40%
PASS ATTACK
Chiefs #14
→
Raiders #23
+9
RUN GAME
Chiefs #6
→
Raiders #14
+8
SUN OCT 4 · 4:05 PM
U.S. Bank Stadium · dome
'25OFFDEF
MIA Miami Dolphins at
7-10
#25
#24
MIN Minnesota Vikings
9-8
#26
#7
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PREMIN 64%
no major mismatch — evenly built
SUN OCT 4 · 4:25 PM
Lumen Field · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
LAC Los Angeles Chargers at
11-6
#20
#9
SEA Seattle Seahawks
14-3
#3
#1
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PRESEA 69%
no major mismatch — evenly built
MON OCT 5 · 8:15 PM · DIV
Caesars Superdome · dome
'25OFFDEF
ATL Atlanta Falcons at
8-9
#24
#19
NO New Orleans Saints
6-11
#28
#16
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PRENO 53%
no major mismatch — evenly built
OFF/DEF are each team's 2025 points scored / allowed ranks (of 32); mismatch rows pair an offense unit with the defense it runs into — amber gap, weak side in red. SPREAD/TOTAL/BOOK are the market; MODEL is our calibrated spine (preseason, prior-only) — side by side on purpose, not a pick. Weather fills in as kickoff nears. Tap for the full dossier.