Matchups — Week 4 16 games · heat = 2025 rank gap

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Sort Heat Kickoff
SUN OCT 4 · 4:25 PM Levi's Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
DEN Denver Broncos at 14-3 #14 #3
SF San Francisco 49ers 12-5 #10 #13
SPREAD
TOTAL
BOOK
MODEL·PRESF 56%
PASS PRO Broncos #1 49ers #32 +31
PASS ATTACK Broncos #9 49ers #25 +16
SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM Soldier Field · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
NYJ New York Jets at 3-14 #29 #31
CHI Chicago Bears 11-6 #9 #23
SPREADCHI -8.5
TOTAL45.5
BOOKCHI 77%
MODEL·PRECHI 71%
PASS PRO Bears #3 Jets #31 +28
PASS ATTACK Bears #10 Jets #32 +22
RUN GAME Bears #4 Jets #26 +22
SUN OCT 4 · 9:30 AM Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
IND Indianapolis Colts at 8-9 #8 #21
WAS Washington Commanders 5-12 #22 #27
SPREADWAS -1.5
TOTAL50.5
BOOKWAS 52%
MODEL·PREWAS 42%
RUN GAME Colts #3 Commanders #28 +25
RED ZONE Colts #7 Commanders #28 +21
PASS ATTACK Colts #12 Commanders #30 +18
SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM Paycor Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
JAC Jacksonville Jaguars at 13-4 #6 #8
CIN Cincinnati Bengals 6-11 #12 #30
SPREAD
TOTAL
BOOK
MODEL·PRECIN 45%
RED ZONE Bengals #1 Jaguars #25 +24
PASS ATTACK Jaguars #11 Bengals #28 +17
RED ZONE Jaguars #12 Bengals #26 +14
SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM · DIV Highmark Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
NE New England Patriots at 14-3 #2 #4
BUF Buffalo Bills 12-5 #5 #12
SPREAD
TOTAL
BOOK
MODEL·PREBUF 58%
RED ZONE Bills #3 Patriots #27 +24
RUN GAME Patriots #13 Bills #30 +17
RED ZONE Patriots #9 Bills #24 +15
SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
TEN Tennessee Titans at 3-14 #30 #28
BAL Baltimore Ravens 8-9 #11 #18
SPREAD
TOTAL
BOOK
MODEL·PREBAL 73%
RUN GAME Ravens #2 Titans #23 +21
RED ZONE Ravens #22 Titans #30 +8
SUN OCT 4 · 8:20 PM Bank of America Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
DET Detroit Lions at 9-8 #4 #22
CAR Carolina Panthers 8-9 #27 #15
SPREAD
TOTAL
BOOK
MODEL·PRECAR 42%
PASS ATTACK Lions #4 Panthers #24 +20
PASS PRO Lions #18 Panthers #28 +10
SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM Raymond James Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
GB Green Bay Packers at 9-7-1 #16 #11
TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-9 #18 #20
SPREAD
TOTAL
BOOK
MODEL·PRETB 52%
PASS ATTACK Packers #3 Buccaneers #20 +17
RED ZONE Packers #15 Buccaneers #32 +17
PASS PRO Packers #7 Buccaneers #18 +11
SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM MetLife Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
ARI Arizona Cardinals at 3-14 #23 #29
NYG New York Giants 4-13 #17 #26
SPREAD
TOTAL
BOOK
MODEL·PRENYG 57%
RUN GAME Giants #5 Cardinals #21 +16
PASS ATTACK Giants #19 Cardinals #27 +8
SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM Reliant Stadium
'25OFFDEF
DAL Dallas Cowboys at 7-9-1 #7 #32
HOU Houston Texans 12-5 #13 #2
SPREAD
TOTAL
BOOK
MODEL·PREHOU 69%
PASS ATTACK Texans #15 Cowboys #31 +16
PASS PRO Texans #9 Cowboys #24 +15
SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
LAR Los Angeles Rams at 12-5 #1 #10
PHI Philadelphia Eagles 11-6 #19 #5
SPREAD
TOTAL
BOOK
MODEL·PREPHI 49%
PASS PRO Rams #2 Eagles #12 +10
RUN GAME Rams #7 Eagles #16 +9
THU OCT 1 · 8:15 PM · DIV Huntington Bank Field · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
PIT Pittsburgh Steelers at 10-7 #15 #17
CLE Cleveland Browns 5-12 #31 #14
SPREADPIT -2.5
TOTAL40.5
BOOKCLE 45%
MODEL·PRECLE 46%
RED ZONE Steelers #11 Browns #20 +9
SUN OCT 4 · 4:25 PM · DIV Allegiant Stadium · dome
'25OFFDEF
KAN Kansas City Chiefs at 6-11 #21 #6
LV Las Vegas Raiders 3-14 #32 #25
SPREAD
TOTAL
BOOK
MODEL·PRELV 40%
PASS ATTACK Chiefs #14 Raiders #23 +9
RUN GAME Chiefs #6 Raiders #14 +8
SUN OCT 4 · 4:05 PM U.S. Bank Stadium · dome
'25OFFDEF
MIA Miami Dolphins at 7-10 #25 #24
MIN Minnesota Vikings 9-8 #26 #7
SPREAD
TOTAL
BOOK
MODEL·PREMIN 64%
no major mismatch — evenly built
SUN OCT 4 · 4:25 PM Lumen Field · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
LAC Los Angeles Chargers at 11-6 #20 #9
SEA Seattle Seahawks 14-3 #3 #1
SPREAD
TOTAL
BOOK
MODEL·PRESEA 69%
no major mismatch — evenly built
MON OCT 5 · 8:15 PM · DIV Caesars Superdome · dome
'25OFFDEF
ATL Atlanta Falcons at 8-9 #24 #19
NO New Orleans Saints 6-11 #28 #16
SPREAD
TOTAL
BOOK
MODEL·PRENO 53%
no major mismatch — evenly built
OFF/DEF are each team's 2025 points scored / allowed ranks (of 32); mismatch rows pair an offense unit with the defense it runs into — amber gap, weak side in red. SPREAD/TOTAL/BOOK are the market; MODEL is our calibrated spine (preseason, prior-only) — side by side on purpose, not a pick. Weather fills in as kickoff nears. Tap for the full dossier.