Arizona Cardinals
@
New York Giants
MODEL NYG 57%
Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 13:00
· MetLife Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: ARI 0 – 1 NYG
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
ARI OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
NYG OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
ARI OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
even
#16 +0.03
-0.06 #28
Run game
even
#32 +0.17
256 #5
Pass yards
OFF +12
#17 230
93 #31
Rush yards
even
#31 145
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#17 2.2
42% #12
3rd down
even
#14 40%
56% #26
Red zone
even
#22 68%
NYG OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
OFF +8
#27 +0.15
+0.04 #5
Run game
OFF +16
#21 +0.01
218 #21
Pass yards
even
#24 243
129 #5
Rush yards
OFF +20
#25 127
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
even
#29 1.8
40% #17
3rd down
OFF +12
#29 45%
59% #23
Red zone
even
#21 67%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
ARI PASS RUSH
vs
NYG PASS PRO
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sacks '25
Jonah Williams DE
3.0 sacks '25
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sacks '25
2.8 #23
sacks allowed /g
#17 1.8
NYG PASS RUSH
vs
ARI PASS PRO
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sacks '25
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sacks '25
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sacks '25
3.5 #28
sacks allowed /g
#29 2.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB
vs #16 PASS D
240.4 pass y/g 8/10
Jeremiyah Love RB
vs #32 RUN D
— rush y/g
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR1
vs #16 PASS D
50.7 rec y/g 5/10
Michael Wilson WR2
vs #16 PASS D
59.2 rec y/g 6/10
Kendrick Bourne WR3
2025: SF
vs #16 PASS D
36.7 rec y/g 1/10
Trey McBride TE
vs #16 PASS D
72.9 rec y/g 6/10
NYG
Jaxson Dart QB
vs #27 PASS D
162.3 pass y/g 8/10
Cam Skattebo RB
vs #21 RUN D
51.2 rush y/g 5/8
Malik Nabers WR1
vs #27 PASS D
67.8 rec y/g 2/4
Darius Slayton WR2
vs #27 PASS D
38.4 rec y/g 4/10
Darnell Mooney WR3
2025: ATL
vs #27 PASS D
29.5 rec y/g 4/10
Isaiah Likely TE
2025: BAL
vs #27 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.