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Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders ★ DIV · AFC WEST ★

Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 16:25 · Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: KC 8 – 2 LV
no sides on this game yet · the record
KC Garrett Nussmeier QB out · Jimmy Holiday WR out · Jared Wiley TE out    LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out
LV win probability
ours 40% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected KC 23 – LV 19 · KC -3.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Raidersspread · margin, last 10
LV +5.5
LV +3.5
4/10
at the line
bookLVKAN
DK
CZR
Raiderstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

17 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
KC · 11
Garrett NussmeierQBOUTCoach's Decision
Jimmy HolidayWROUTUndisclosed · IR
Jared WileyTEOUTCoach's Decision
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Mansoor DelaneCBOUTShoulder
Bryson EasonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Omarr Norman-LottDTOUTKnee - ACL
Jack PyburnLBOUTCoach's Decision
Diego PoundsOTOUTCoach's Decision
Josh SimmonsOTOUTBack
Chamarri ConnerSOUTKnee
Cooper McDonaldLBQUESTIONABLEKnee
LV · 6
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WROUTUndisclosed · IR
Brock BowersTEOUTKnee - Meniscus
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays  |  with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
Carter RunyonTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Chigozie AnusiemCBOUTKnee · IR
Keyron CrawfordDEOUTAnkle · IR
Darien PorterCBQUESTIONABLEFoot

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
KC Run block vs frontLV offense · KC defense FRONT +25 LV 83 #32 KC #7 106
KC Red zoneLV offense · KC defense DEF +21 LV 56% #27 KC #6 55%
KC Run gameLV offense · KC defense DEF +21 LV -0.26 #32 KC #11 -0.04
KC Pass yardsLV offense · KC defense DEF +18 LV 195 #26 KC #8 205
LV Pass pro vs rushKC offense · LV defense RUSH +16 KC 2.8 #23 LV #7 2.8
KC Pass attackLV offense · KC defense DEF +14 LV -0.19 #29 KC #15 -0.00
LV Red zoneKC offense · LV defense DEF +14 KC 58% #25 LV #11 59%
LV Run block vs frontKC offense · LV defense FRONT +14 KC 107 #25 LV #11 111 Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
KC Pass attackKC offense · LV defense OFF +8 KC +0.04 #14 LV #22 +0.08
KC Run gameKC offense · LV defense OFF +8 KC +0.03 #6 LV #14 -0.04
KC 3rd downKC offense · LV defense OFF +7 KC 38% #23 LV #30 47%
KC Pass pro vs rushLV offense · KC defense RUSH +3 LV 3.2 #27 KC #24 1.9
LV Pass yardsKC offense · LV defense DEF +3 KC 232 #16 LV #13 214
KC 3rd downLV offense · KC defense DEF +1 LV 34% #29 KC #28 44%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

LV DEFENSE KC OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 40% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units KC offense against what it runs into

KC OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 LV DEFENSE

KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.

+0.04 #14 Pass attack OFF +8 #22 +0.08
+0.03 #6 Run game OFF +8 #14 -0.04
232 #16 Pass yards even #13 214
107 #25 Rush yards DEF +8 #17 117
2.8 #22 Pass pro vs rush even #21 2.1
38% #23 3rd down even #30 47%
58% #25 Red zone DEF +14 #11 59%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

KCpass pro rush +16 LVpass rush
LTKahlil Benson
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Maxx Crosby DE 10.0 sk#16
Malcolm Koonce DE 4.5 sk#79
Kwity Paye DE 4.0 sk#105
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
KCrun block front +14 LVrun D
LTKahlil Benson
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Jonah Laulu LDE 8.0 tfl#70
Adam Butler NT 3.0 tfl#356
Tonka Hemingway RDE 5.0 tfl#206
Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl#2
Nakobe Dean LILB 7.0 tfl#108
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 111