Kansas City Chiefs
@
Las Vegas Raiders
DIV
MODEL LV 40%
Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 16:25
· Allegiant Stadium (dome)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: KAN 8 – 2 LV
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
KAN OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
LV OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
KAN OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
OFF +9
#23 +0.08
+0.03 #6
Run game
OFF +8
#14 -0.04
232 #16
Pass yards
even
#13 214
107 #25
Rush yards
DEF +8
#17 117
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
even
#21 2.1
38% #23
3rd down
even
#30 47%
58% #25
Red zone
DEF +14
#11 59%
LV OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
DEF +14
#15 -0.00
-0.26 #32
Run game
DEF +21
#11 -0.04
195 #26
Pass yards
DEF +18
#8 205
77 #32
Rush yards
DEF +23
#9 106
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
even
#26 1.9
34% #29
3rd down
even
#28 44%
56% #27
Red zone
DEF +21
#6 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
KAN PASS RUSH
vs
LV PASS PRO
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sacks '25
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sacks '25
3.8 #32
sacks allowed /g
#21 1.9
LV PASS RUSH
vs
KAN PASS PRO
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sacks '25
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sacks '25
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sacks '25
2.8 #22
sacks allowed /g
#26 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
KAN
Patrick Mahomes QB
vs #23 PASS D
256.2 pass y/g 7/10
Kenneth Walker III RB
2025: SEA
vs #14 RUN D
67.0 rush y/g 5/10
Rashee Rice WR1
vs #23 PASS D
71.4 rec y/g 4/8
Xavier Worthy WR2
vs #23 PASS D
38.0 rec y/g 5/10
Tyquan Thornton WR3
vs #23 PASS D
36.5 rec y/g 5/10
Travis Kelce TE
vs #23 PASS D
50.1 rec y/g 4/10
LV
Kirk Cousins QB
2025: ATL
vs #15 PASS D
172.1 pass y/g 6/10
Ashton Jeanty RB
vs #11 RUN D
57.4 rush y/g 4/10
Tre Tucker WR1
vs #15 PASS D
40.9 rec y/g 3/10
Jalen Nailor WR2
2025: MIN
vs #15 PASS D
26.1 rec y/g 4/10
Jack Bech WR3
vs #15 PASS D
16.0 rec y/g 5/10
Brock Bowers TE
vs #15 PASS D
56.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.