no sides on this game yet · the record
KC Garrett Nussmeier QB out · Jimmy Holiday WR out · Jared Wiley TE out LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out
LV win probability
ours 40%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected KC 23 – LV 19 · KC -3.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LV +5.5
LV +3.5
4/10
—at the line
| book | LV | KAN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
43.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
17 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
KC · 11
| Garrett Nussmeier | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jimmy Holiday | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jared Wiley | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Mansoor Delane | CB | OUT | Shoulder |
| Bryson Eason | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Omarr Norman-Lott | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jack Pyburn | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Diego Pounds | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Josh Simmons | OT | OUT | Back |
| Chamarri Conner | S | OUT | Knee |
| Cooper McDonald | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
LV · 6
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Brock Bowers | TE | OUT | Knee - Meniscus |
|
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays | with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
| |||
| Carter Runyon | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Chigozie Anusiem | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Keyron Crawford | DE | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Darien Porter | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Foot |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
KC
Run block vs frontLV offense · KC defense
LV 83 #32
KC #7 106
KC
Red zoneLV offense · KC defense
LV 56% #27
KC #6 55%
KC
Run gameLV offense · KC defense
LV -0.26 #32
KC #11 -0.04
KC
Pass yardsLV offense · KC defense
LV 195 #26
KC #8 205
LV
Pass pro vs rushKC offense · LV defense
KC 2.8 #23
LV #7 2.8
KC
Pass attackLV offense · KC defense
LV -0.19 #29
KC #15 -0.00
LV
Red zoneKC offense · LV defense
KC 58% #25
LV #11 59%
LV
Run block vs frontKC offense · LV defense
KC 107 #25
LV #11 111
Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
KC
Pass attackKC offense · LV defense
KC +0.04 #14
LV #22 +0.08
KC
Run gameKC offense · LV defense
KC +0.03 #6
LV #14 -0.04
KC
3rd downKC offense · LV defense
KC 38% #23
LV #30 47%
KC
Pass pro vs rushLV offense · KC defense
LV 3.2 #27
KC #24 1.9
LV
Pass yardsKC offense · LV defense
KC 232 #16
LV #13 214
KC
3rd downLV offense · KC defense
LV 34% #29
KC #28 44%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units KC offense against what it runs into
KC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LV DEFENSE
KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
OFF +8
#22 +0.08
+0.03 #6
Run game
OFF +8
#14 -0.04
232 #16
Pass yards
even
#13 214
107 #25
Rush yards
DEF +8
#17 117
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
even
#21 2.1
38% #23
3rd down
even
#30 47%
58% #25
Red zone
DEF +14
#11 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
KCpass pro
rush +16
LVpass rush
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sk#16
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sk#79
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sk#105
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
KCrun block
front +14
LVrun D
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Jonah Laulu LDE
8.0 tfl#70
Adam Butler NT
3.0 tfl#356
Tonka Hemingway RDE
5.0 tfl#206
Maxx Crosby WLB
28.0 tfl#2
Nakobe Dean LILB
7.0 tfl#108
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 111
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LV offense against what it runs into
LV OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
KC DEFENSE
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
DEF +14
#15 -0.00
-0.26 #32
Run game
DEF +21
#11 -0.04
195 #26
Pass yards
DEF +18
#8 205
77 #32
Rush yards
DEF +23
#9 106
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
even
#26 1.9
34% #29
3rd down
even
#28 44%
56% #27
Red zone
DEF +21
#6 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LVpass pro
even
KCpass rush
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sk#45
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sk#50
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sk#240
3.2 #27sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 1.9
LVrun block
front +25
KCrun D
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
George Karlaftis LDE
10.0 tfl#46
Chris Jones LDT
12.0 tfl#20
Khyiris Tonga RDT
2.0 tfl#420
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
—
Drue Tranquill WLB
10.0 tfl#50
83 #32rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 106