no sides on this game yet · the record
ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out
NO win probability
ours 68%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ATL 19 – NO 25 · NO -6.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NO -2.5
NO −6.1
5/10
—at the line
| book | NO | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
44.5
held
2/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| DK |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
14 designations · as of 8:00 PM
ATL · 7
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
|
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays | with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
| |||
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | OUT | Oblique |
| Trey Sermon | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Billy Bowman Jr. | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Da'Shawn Hand | DT | OUT | Quadriceps |
| Cameron Williams | OL | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Chris Lindstrom | G | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
NO · 7
| Alvin Kamara | RB | OUT | Knee - MCL |
|
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays | with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
| |||
| Audric Estime | RB | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Oscar Delp | TE | OUT | Hamstring |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cameron Jordan | DE | OUT | Hamstring |
| Dillon Radunz | G | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Jaylan Ford | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Lorenzo Styles Jr. | S | OUT | Calf · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NO
3rd downATL offense · NO defense
ATL 34% #30
NO #5 36%
ATL
Pass pro vs rushNO offense · ATL defense
NO 3.2 #28
ATL #5 3.1
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
NO
Run gameATL offense · NO defense
ATL -0.03 #23
NO #2 -0.07
ATL
Red zoneNO offense · ATL defense
NO 50% #32
ATL #13 62%
NO
Pass yardsATL offense · NO defense
ATL 218 #20
NO #5 196
ATL
Pass attackNO offense · ATL defense
NO -0.08 #27
ATL #13 -0.03
ATL
Run block vs frontATL offense · NO defense
ATL 125 #9
NO #23 127
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #8
ATL
Run block vs frontNO offense · ATL defense
NO 94 #30
ATL #16 116
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
NO
Pass attackATL offense · NO defense
ATL -0.01 #21
NO #12 -0.05
ATL
Pass pro vs rushATL offense · NO defense
ATL 1.9 #9
NO #16 2.2
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13Chase Young DE 10.0 sk #15
ATL
Run gameNO offense · ATL defense
NO -0.10 #31
ATL #25 +0.03
NO
Pass yardsNO offense · ATL defense
NO 237 #10
ATL #15 222
ATL
3rd downNO offense · ATL defense
NO 40% #19
ATL #15 40%
ATL
Red zoneATL offense · NO defense
ATL 65% #13
NO #15 62%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ATL offense against what it runs into
ATL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NO DEFENSE
ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
DEF +9
#12 -0.05
-0.03 #23
Run game
DEF +21
#2 -0.07
218 #20
Pass yards
DEF +15
#5 196
126 #8
Rush yards
OFF +11
#19 121
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
even
#11 2.6
34% #30
3rd down
DEF +25
#5 36%
65% #13
Red zone
even
#15 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ATLpass pro
even
NOpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Cameron Jordan LB
10.5 sk#13
Chase Young DE
10.0 sk#15
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sk#53
1.9 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
ATLrun block
line +14
NOrun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Cameron Jordan LDE
15.0 tfl#8
Davon Godchaux NT
2.0 tfl#375
Colby Wooden RDE
6.0 tfl#125
Carl Granderson WLB
11.0 tfl#32
Kaden Elliss LILB
10.0 tfl#42
125 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 127
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NO offense against what it runs into
NO OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ATL DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
DEF +14
#13 -0.03
-0.10 #31
Run game
even
#25 +0.03
237 #10
Pass yards
even
#15 222
94 #28
Rush yards
even
#24 126
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +23
#2 3.4
40% #19
3rd down
even
#15 40%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +19
#13 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NOpass pro
rush +23
ATLpass rush
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sk#20
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sk#50
3.2 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 3.1
NOrun block
front +14
ATLrun D
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
LaCale London LDE
7.0 tfl#106
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT
6.0 tfl#131
Brandon Dorlus RDE
11.0 tfl#34
Za'Darius Smith WLB
2.0 tfl#424
Kendal Daniels LILB
—
94 #30rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 116