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Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints ★ DIV · NFC SOUTH ★

Week 4 · 2026-10-05 · 20:15 · Caesars Superdome · dome · sportturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: ATL 5 – 5 NO
no sides on this game yet · the record
ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out    NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out
NO win probability
ours 68% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ATL 19 – NO 25 · NO -6.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Saintsspread · margin, last 10
NO -2.5
NO −6.1
5/10
at the line
bookNOATL
DK
CZR
Saintstotal · points in the game, last 10
44.5
held
2/10
held this week
bookoverunder
CZR
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

14 designations · as of 8:00 PM
ATL · 7
Michael Penix Jr.QBOUTKnee - ACL
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
Tua TagovailoaQBOUTOblique
Trey SermonRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Billy Bowman Jr.CBOUTAchilles
Da'Shawn HandDTOUTQuadriceps
Cameron WilliamsOLOUTAnkle · IR
Chris LindstromGQUESTIONABLEConcussion
NO · 7
Alvin KamaraRBOUTKnee - MCL
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays  |  with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
Audric EstimeRBOUTThigh · IR
Oscar DelpTEOUTHamstring
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Cameron JordanDEOUTHamstring
Dillon RadunzGOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Jaylan FordLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Lorenzo Styles Jr.SOUTCalf · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NO 3rd downATL offense · NO defense DEF +25 ATL 34% #30 NO #5 36%
ATL Pass pro vs rushNO offense · ATL defense RUSH +23 NO 3.2 #28 ATL #5 3.1 James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
NO Run gameATL offense · NO defense DEF +21 ATL -0.03 #23 NO #2 -0.07
ATL Red zoneNO offense · ATL defense DEF +19 NO 50% #32 ATL #13 62%
NO Pass yardsATL offense · NO defense DEF +15 ATL 218 #20 NO #5 196
ATL Pass attackNO offense · ATL defense DEF +14 NO -0.08 #27 ATL #13 -0.03
ATL Run block vs frontATL offense · NO defense LINE +14 ATL 125 #9 NO #23 127 Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #8
ATL Run block vs frontNO offense · ATL defense FRONT +14 NO 94 #30 ATL #16 116
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
NO Pass attackATL offense · NO defense DEF +9 ATL -0.01 #21 NO #12 -0.05
ATL Pass pro vs rushATL offense · NO defense LINE +7 ATL 1.9 #9 NO #16 2.2 Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13Chase Young DE 10.0 sk #15
ATL Run gameNO offense · ATL defense DEF +6 NO -0.10 #31 ATL #25 +0.03
NO Pass yardsNO offense · ATL defense OFF +5 NO 237 #10 ATL #15 222
ATL 3rd downNO offense · ATL defense DEF +4 NO 40% #19 ATL #15 40%
ATL Red zoneATL offense · NO defense OFF +2 ATL 65% #13 NO #15 62%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

NO DEFENSE ATL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units ATL offense against what it runs into

ATL OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 NO DEFENSE

ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.

-0.01 #21 Pass attack DEF +9 #12 -0.05
-0.03 #23 Run game DEF +21 #2 -0.07
218 #20 Pass yards DEF +15 #5 196
126 #8 Rush yards OFF +11 #19 121
1.5 #4 Pass pro vs rush even #11 2.6
34% #30 3rd down DEF +25 #5 36%
65% #13 Red zone even #15 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

ATLpass pro even NOpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk#13
Chase Young DE 10.0 sk#15
Carl Granderson DE 6.0 sk#53
1.9 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
ATLrun block line +14 NOrun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl#8
Davon Godchaux NT 2.0 tfl#375
Colby Wooden RDE 6.0 tfl#125
Carl Granderson WLB 11.0 tfl#32
Kaden Elliss LILB 10.0 tfl#42
125 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 127