no sides on this game yet · the record
NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams CHI Tyson Bagent QB out
CHI win probability
ours 73%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYJ 20 – CHI 28 · CHI -7.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CHI -8.75
CHI −7.9
3/10
—at the line
| book | CHI | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
15 designations · as of 11:45 PM
NYJ · 9
| Kene Nwangwu | RB | OUT | Back |
| Tim Patrick | WR | OUT | Groin · IR |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
| Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g) | |||
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| D'Angelo Ponds | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Tre Brown | CB | OUT | Finger · IR |
| Joseph Ossai | DE | OUT | Foot |
| Kingsley Jonathan | DE | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| VJ Payne | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
CHI · 6
| Tyson Bagent | QB | OUT | Back |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dallis Flowers | CB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Kyler Gordon | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Shemar Turner | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Ozzy Trapilo | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Xavier Woods | S | OUT | Groin |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CHI
Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · NYJ defense
CHI 1.5 #4
NYJ #27 1.9
CHI
Pass attackCHI offense · NYJ defense
CHI +0.08 #10
NYJ #32 +0.25
CHI
Run block vs frontCHI offense · NYJ defense
CHI 161 #2
NYJ #24 129
CHI
Run gameCHI offense · NYJ defense
CHI +0.08 #4
NYJ #26 +0.03
NYJ
Run block vs frontNYJ offense · CHI defense
NYJ 126 #7
CHI #27 133
CHI
Red zoneCHI offense · NYJ defense
CHI 66% #10
NYJ #29 70%
CHI
Red zoneNYJ offense · CHI defense
NYJ 53% #29
CHI #18 65%
CHI
Pass attackNYJ offense · CHI defense
NYJ -0.18 #28
CHI #18 +0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
CHI
Pass yardsNYJ offense · CHI defense
NYJ 164 #32
CHI #22 239
CHI
Run gameNYJ offense · CHI defense
NYJ -0.06 #29
CHI #19 +0.00
CHI
3rd downNYJ offense · CHI defense
NYJ 35% #27
CHI #19 41%
CHI
Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · CHI defense
NYJ 3.0 #25
CHI #20 2.0
CHI
Pass yardsCHI offense · NYJ defense
CHI 235 #12
NYJ #16 226
CHI
3rd downCHI offense · NYJ defense
CHI 43% #11
NYJ #12 39%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYJ offense against what it runs into
NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CHI DEFENSE
NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
DEF +10
#18 +0.03
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +10
#19 +0.00
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +10
#22 239
123 #10
Rush yards
OFF +17
#27 135
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
even
#22 2.1
35% #27
3rd down
DEF +8
#19 41%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +11
#18 65%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYJpass pro
even
CHIpass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Montez Sweat DE
10.0 sk#17
Austin Booker DE
4.5 sk#85
Neville Gallimore DT
3.5 sk#111
3.0 #25sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.0
NYJrun block
line +20
CHIrun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Montez Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#16
Grady Jarrett LDT
1.0 tfl#550
Kentavius Street RDT
3.0 tfl#286
Dayo Odeyingbo RDE
2.0 tfl#414
Devin Bush WLB
7.0 tfl#118
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#27 133
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CHI offense against what it runs into
CHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE
CHI offence: Declan Doyle called these → Press Taylor calls it now.
NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
OFF +22
#32 +0.25
+0.08 #4
Run game
OFF +22
#26 +0.03
235 #12
Pass yards
even
#16 226
144 #3
Rush yards
OFF +26
#29 139
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +28
#31 1.5
43% #11
3rd down
even
#12 39%
66% #10
Red zone
OFF +19
#29 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CHIpass pro
line +23
NYJpass rush
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sk#28
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sk#67
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sk#104
1.5 #4sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#27 1.9
CHIrun block
line +22
NYJrun D
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Kingsley Enagbare LDE
6.0 tfl#142
T'Vondre Sweat LDT
4.0 tfl#272
Harrison Phillips RDT
5.0 tfl#167
Will McDonald IV RDE
10.0 tfl#45
Demario Davis WLB
6.0 tfl#125
161 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#24 129