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Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 13:00 · Soldier Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NYJ 1 – 0 CHI
no sides on this game yet · the record
NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams    CHI Tyson Bagent QB out
CHI win probability
ours 73% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYJ 20 – CHI 28 · CHI -7.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Bearsspread · margin, last 10
CHI -8.75
CHI −7.9
3/10
at the line
bookCHINYJ
DK
CZR
Bearstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

15 designations · as of 11:45 PM
NYJ · 9
Kene NwangwuRBOUTBack
Tim PatrickWROUTGroin · IR
Omar Cooper Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
6 more · line, defense, specialists
D'Angelo PondsCBOUTCalf
Tre BrownCBOUTFinger · IR
Joseph OssaiDEOUTFoot
Kingsley JonathanDEOUTThigh · IR
VJ PayneSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Minkah FitzpatrickSQUESTIONABLEGroin
CHI · 6
Tyson BagentQBOUTBack
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Dallis FlowersCBOUTLeg · IR
Kyler GordonCBOUTCalf
Shemar TurnerDTOUTKnee - ACL
Ozzy TrapiloOTOUTKnee
Xavier WoodsSOUTGroin

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CHI Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · NYJ defense LINE +23 CHI 1.5 #4 NYJ #27 1.9
CHI Pass attackCHI offense · NYJ defense OFF +22 CHI +0.08 #10 NYJ #32 +0.25
CHI Run block vs frontCHI offense · NYJ defense LINE +22 CHI 161 #2 NYJ #24 129
CHI Run gameCHI offense · NYJ defense OFF +22 CHI +0.08 #4 NYJ #26 +0.03
NYJ Run block vs frontNYJ offense · CHI defense LINE +20 NYJ 126 #7 CHI #27 133
CHI Red zoneCHI offense · NYJ defense OFF +19 CHI 66% #10 NYJ #29 70%
CHI Red zoneNYJ offense · CHI defense DEF +11 NYJ 53% #29 CHI #18 65%
CHI Pass attackNYJ offense · CHI defense DEF +10 NYJ -0.18 #28 CHI #18 +0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
CHI Pass yardsNYJ offense · CHI defense DEF +10 NYJ 164 #32 CHI #22 239
CHI Run gameNYJ offense · CHI defense DEF +10 NYJ -0.06 #29 CHI #19 +0.00
CHI 3rd downNYJ offense · CHI defense DEF +8 NYJ 35% #27 CHI #19 41%
CHI Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · CHI defense RUSH +5 NYJ 3.0 #25 CHI #20 2.0
CHI Pass yardsCHI offense · NYJ defense OFF +4 CHI 235 #12 NYJ #16 226
CHI 3rd downCHI offense · NYJ defense OFF +1 CHI 43% #11 NYJ #12 39%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

CHI DEFENSE NYJ OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NYJ offense against what it runs into

NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CHI DEFENSE

NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.

-0.18 #28 Pass attack DEF +10 #18 +0.03
-0.06 #29 Run game DEF +10 #19 +0.00
164 #32 Pass yards DEF +10 #22 239
123 #10 Rush yards OFF +17 #27 135
3.5 #29 Pass pro vs rush even #22 2.1
35% #27 3rd down DEF +8 #19 41%
53% #29 Red zone DEF +11 #18 65%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NYJpass pro even CHIpass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Montez Sweat DE 10.0 sk#17
Austin Booker DE 4.5 sk#85
Neville Gallimore DT 3.5 sk#111
3.0 #25sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.0
NYJrun block line +20 CHIrun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Montez Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl#16
Grady Jarrett LDT 1.0 tfl#550
Kentavius Street RDT 3.0 tfl#286
Dayo Odeyingbo RDE 2.0 tfl#414
Devin Bush WLB 7.0 tfl#118
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#27 133