New York Jets
@
Chicago Bears
BOOK CHI 77%
MODEL CHI 71%
Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 13:00
· Soldier Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: NYJ 1 – 0 CHI
CHI -8.5
Vegas line (context)
45.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
CHI OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
DEF +10
#18 +0.03
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +10
#19 +0.00
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +10
#22 239
123 #10
Rush yards
OFF +17
#27 135
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
even
#22 2.1
35% #27
3rd down
DEF +8
#19 41%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +11
#18 65%
CHI OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
OFF +22
#32 +0.25
+0.08 #4
Run game
OFF +22
#26 +0.03
235 #12
Pass yards
even
#16 226
144 #3
Rush yards
OFF +26
#29 139
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +28
#31 1.5
43% #11
3rd down
even
#12 39%
66% #10
Red zone
OFF +19
#29 70%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NYJ PASS RUSH
vs
CHI PASS PRO
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sacks '25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sacks '25
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sacks '25
1.4 #3
sacks allowed /g
#22 1.5
CHI PASS RUSH
vs
NYJ PASS PRO
Montez Sweat DE
11.0 sacks '25
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sacks '25
Austin Booker DE
5.5 sacks '25
3.5 #29
sacks allowed /g
#31 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NYJ
Geno Smith QB
2025: LV
vs #18 PASS D
201.7 pass y/g 3/10
Breece Hall RB
vs #19 RUN D
66.6 rush y/g 4/10
Garrett Wilson WR1
vs #18 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 4/7
Adonai Mitchell WR2
vs #18 PASS D
28.3 rec y/g 4/10
Omar Cooper Jr. WR3
vs #18 PASS D
— rec y/g
Kenyon Sadiq TE
vs #18 PASS D
— rec y/g
CHI
Caleb Williams QB
vs #32 PASS D
240.0 pass y/g 5/10
D'Andre Swift RB
vs #26 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 4/10
Rome Odunze WR1
vs #32 PASS D
53.5 rec y/g 2/10
Luther Burden III WR2
vs #32 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Kalif Raymond WR3
2025: DET
vs #32 PASS D
19.3 rec y/g 5/10
Colston Loveland TE
vs #32 PASS D
50.3 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.