New England Patriots
@
Buffalo Bills
DIV
MODEL BUF 58%
Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 13:00
· Highmark Stadium (outdoors)
· a_turf
Last 5 yrs H2H: NE 4 – 7 BUF
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NE OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
BUF OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NE OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
even
#7 -0.11
+0.01 #13
Run game
OFF +17
#30 +0.09
262 #4
Pass yards
even
#1 170
129 #6
Rush yards
OFF +22
#28 136
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
even
#20 2.1
44% #6
3rd down
OFF +18
#24 42%
66% #9
Red zone
OFF +15
#24 68%
BUF OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
even
#11 -0.06
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +14
#15 -0.03
234 #13
Pass yards
even
#9 207
160 #1
Rush yards
even
#6 102
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
even
#25 2.0
46% #3
3rd down
OFF +8
#11 39%
72% #3
Red zone
OFF +24
#27 69%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NE PASS RUSH
vs
BUF PASS PRO
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sacks '25
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
Milton Williams DT
6.5 sacks '25
2.4 #19
sacks allowed /g
#20 2.0
BUF PASS RUSH
vs
NE PASS PRO
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sacks '25
Greg Rousseau LB
8.0 sacks '25
C.J. Gardner-Johnson SAF
3.0 sacks '25
2.8 #24
sacks allowed /g
#25 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NE
Drake Maye QB
vs #7 PASS D
248.7 pass y/g 6/10
Rhamondre Stevenson RB
vs #30 RUN D
45.6 rush y/g 7/10
A.J. Brown WR1
2025: PHI
vs #7 PASS D
64.2 rec y/g 6/10
Romeo Doubs WR2
2025: GB
vs #7 PASS D
49.9 rec y/g 5/10
Kayshon Boutte WR3
vs #7 PASS D
39.9 rec y/g 2/10
Hunter Henry TE
vs #7 PASS D
41.9 rec y/g 5/10
BUF
Josh Allen QB
vs #11 PASS D
234.7 pass y/g 7/10
James Cook III RB
vs #15 RUN D
93.9 rush y/g 5/10
DJ Moore WR1
2025: CHI
vs #11 PASS D
42.0 rec y/g 5/10
Khalil Shakir WR2
vs #11 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 5/10
Joshua Palmer WR3
vs #11 PASS D
25.2 rec y/g 2/10
Dalton Kincaid TE
vs #11 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.