Dallas Cowboys
@
Houston Texans
MODEL HOU 69%
Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 13:00
· Reliant Stadium
· astroturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: DAL 1 – 1 HOU
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DAL OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
HOU OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DAL OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
even
#1 -0.19
+0.01 #15
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
279 #1
Pass yards
even
#7 205
126 #9
Rush yards
even
#4 94
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
even
#7 2.8
43% #8
3rd down
even
#7 37%
62% #17
Red zone
even
#16 63%
HOU OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
OFF +16
#31 +0.22
-0.08 #30
Run game
even
#31 +0.09
233 #14
Pass yards
OFF +18
#32 266
109 #22
Rush yards
even
#23 125
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +15
#24 2.0
38% #24
3rd down
even
#31 48%
51% #31
Red zone
even
#31 72%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DAL PASS RUSH
vs
HOU PASS PRO
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sacks '25
James Houston DE
5.5 sacks '25
Kenny Clark NT
3.0 sacks '25
1.8 #9
sacks allowed /g
#7 2.0
HOU PASS RUSH
vs
DAL PASS PRO
Danielle Hunter DE
18.0 sacks '25
Will Anderson Jr. DE
15.5 sacks '25
Sheldon Rankins DT
4.5 sacks '25
1.8 #10
sacks allowed /g
#24 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DAL
Dak Prescott QB
vs #1 PASS D
267.8 pass y/g 6/10
Javonte Williams RB
vs #8 RUN D
75.1 rush y/g 5/10
CeeDee Lamb WR1
vs #1 PASS D
82.8 rec y/g 4/10
George Pickens WR2
vs #1 PASS D
84.1 rec y/g 4/10
Ryan Flournoy WR3
vs #1 PASS D
31.7 rec y/g 4/10
Jake Ferguson TE
vs #1 PASS D
35.3 rec y/g 4/10
HOU
C.J. Stroud QB
vs #31 PASS D
218.9 pass y/g 5/10
David Montgomery RB
2025: DET
vs #31 RUN D
42.1 rush y/g 2/10
Nico Collins WR1
vs #31 PASS D
71.1 rec y/g 6/10
Jayden Higgins WR2
vs #31 PASS D
32.8 rec y/g 7/10
Jaylin Noel WR3
vs #31 PASS D
15.4 rec y/g 1/10
Dalton Schultz TE
vs #31 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.