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Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 13:00 · Reliant Stadium · astroturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: DAL 1 – 1 HOU
no sides on this game yet · the record
DAL Israel Abanikanda RB out · Malik Davis RB out · Camden Brown WR out · DJ Rogers TE out    HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out · Brevin Jordan TE out
HOU win probability
ours 68% book 55%
47%
77%
book is 13 pts lower
projected DAL 21 – HOU 27 · HOU -6.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Texansspread · margin, last 10
HOU -2.75
HOU −6.0
8/10
at the line
bookHOUDAL
DK
CZR
Texanstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
Texansmoneyline · wins, last 10
55.1%
ours 67.6%
9/10
HOU+12.5 pts vs book
bookHOUDAL
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

25 designations · as of 8:00 PM
DAL · 12
Israel AbanikandaRBOUTCoach's Decision
Malik DavisRBOUTHip · IR
Camden BrownWROUTCoach's Decision
DJ RogersTEOUTKnee · IR
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Matt HennessyCOUTNeck · IR
Caelen CarsonCBOUTCoach's Decision
Devin MooreCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kelvin Gilliam Jr.DTOUTTriceps · IR
Tyler SmithGOUTThumb · IR
Marist LiufauLBOUTForearm · IR
Tyrus WheatLBOUTCoach's Decision
Ajani CorneliusOTOUTCoach's Decision
HOU · 13
Jayden HigginsWROUTKnee - ACL · IR
Tank DellWROUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
Brevin JordanTEOUTCoach's Decision
10 more · line, defense, specialists
Collin WrightCBOUTCoach's Decision
Jaden CrumedyDTOUTCoach's Decision
Kayden McDonaldDTOUTAnkle · IR
Febechi NwaiwuGOUTCoach's Decision
Sam HagenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Aiden FisherLBOUTCoach's Decision
Braden SmithOTOUTFoot · IR
Nate ThomasOTOUTCoach's Decision
Henry To'oTo'oLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Jake HummelLBQUESTIONABLEAbdomen

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 12.5 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
HOU Pass yardsHOU offense · DAL defense OFF +18 HOU 233 #14 DAL #32 266
HOU Pass attackHOU offense · DAL defense OFF +16 HOU +0.04 #15 DAL #31 +0.22
HOU Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · DAL defense LINE +15 HOU 1.8 #10 DAL #25 2.0
HOU 3rd downHOU offense · DAL defense OFF +7 HOU 38% #24 DAL #31 48%
HOU Run gameDAL offense · HOU defense DEF +7 DAL +0.01 #15 HOU #8 -0.05
DAL Pass yardsDAL offense · HOU defense OFF +6 DAL 279 #1 HOU #7 205
HOU Run block vs frontDAL offense · HOU defense FRONT +6 DAL 126 #9 HOU #3 94 Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #4Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #8
HOU Pass attackDAL offense · HOU defense DEF +4 DAL +0.16 #5 HOU #1 -0.19
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
HOU Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · HOU defense RUSH +3 DAL 1.8 #11 HOU #8 2.8 Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #9
HOU 3rd downDAL offense · HOU defense DEF +1 DAL 43% #8 HOU #7 37%
HOU Red zoneDAL offense · HOU defense DEF +1 DAL 62% #17 HOU #16 63%
HOU Run gameHOU offense · DAL defense OFF +1 HOU -0.08 #30 DAL #31 +0.09
DAL Red zoneHOU offense · DAL defense DEF +0 HOU 51% #31 DAL #31 72%
DAL Run block vs frontHOU offense · DAL defense FRONT +0 HOU 109 #23 DAL #23 125

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

HOU DEFENSE DAL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DAL offense against what it runs into

DAL OFFENSE 2025 HOU DEFENSE
+0.16 #5 Pass attack even #1 -0.19
+0.01 #15 Run game even #8 -0.05
279 #1 Pass yards even #7 205
126 #9 Rush yards even #4 94
1.8 #11 Pass pro vs rush even #7 2.8
43% #8 3rd down even #7 37%
62% #17 Red zone even #16 63%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DALpass pro even HOUpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk#9
Jadeveon Clowney OLB 8.5 sk#20
1.8 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.8
DALrun block even HOUrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl#4
Tommy Togiai LDT 6.0 tfl#127
Sheldon Rankins RDT 5.0 tfl#176
Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl#8
Henry To'oTo'o WLB 9.0 tfl#51
126 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 94