no sides on this game yet · the record
DAL Israel Abanikanda RB out · Malik Davis RB out · Camden Brown WR out · DJ Rogers TE out HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out · Brevin Jordan TE out
HOU win probability
ours 68%
book 55%
47%
77%
book is 13 pts lower
projected DAL 21 – HOU 27 · HOU -6.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
HOU -2.75
HOU −6.0
8/10
—at the line
| book | HOU | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
55.1%
ours 67.6%
9/10
HOU+12.5 pts vs book
| book | HOU | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
25 designations · as of 8:00 PM
DAL · 12
| Israel Abanikanda | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Malik Davis | RB | OUT | Hip · IR |
| Camden Brown | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| DJ Rogers | TE | OUT | Knee · IR |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Matt Hennessy | C | OUT | Neck · IR |
| Caelen Carson | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Devin Moore | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kelvin Gilliam Jr. | DT | OUT | Triceps · IR |
| Tyler Smith | G | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Marist Liufau | LB | OUT | Forearm · IR |
| Tyrus Wheat | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ajani Cornelius | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
HOU · 13
| Jayden Higgins | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Tank Dell | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL + MCL · IR |
| Brevin Jordan | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
10 more · line, defense, specialists
| Collin Wright | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jaden Crumedy | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kayden McDonald | DT | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Febechi Nwaiwu | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Sam Hagen | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Aiden Fisher | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Braden Smith | OT | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Nate Thomas | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Henry To'oTo'o | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
| Jake Hummel | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Abdomen |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 12.5 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
HOU
Pass yardsHOU offense · DAL defense
HOU 233 #14
DAL #32 266
HOU
Pass attackHOU offense · DAL defense
HOU +0.04 #15
DAL #31 +0.22
HOU
Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · DAL defense
HOU 1.8 #10
DAL #25 2.0
HOU
3rd downHOU offense · DAL defense
HOU 38% #24
DAL #31 48%
HOU
Run gameDAL offense · HOU defense
DAL +0.01 #15
HOU #8 -0.05
DAL
Pass yardsDAL offense · HOU defense
DAL 279 #1
HOU #7 205
HOU
Run block vs frontDAL offense · HOU defense
DAL 126 #9
HOU #3 94
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #4Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #8
HOU
Pass attackDAL offense · HOU defense
DAL +0.16 #5
HOU #1 -0.19
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
HOU
Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · HOU defense
DAL 1.8 #11
HOU #8 2.8
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #9
HOU
3rd downDAL offense · HOU defense
DAL 43% #8
HOU #7 37%
HOU
Red zoneDAL offense · HOU defense
DAL 62% #17
HOU #16 63%
HOU
Run gameHOU offense · DAL defense
HOU -0.08 #30
DAL #31 +0.09
DAL
Red zoneHOU offense · DAL defense
HOU 51% #31
DAL #31 72%
DAL
Run block vs frontHOU offense · DAL defense
HOU 109 #23
DAL #23 125
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DAL offense against what it runs into
DAL OFFENSE
2025
HOU DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
even
#1 -0.19
+0.01 #15
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
279 #1
Pass yards
even
#7 205
126 #9
Rush yards
even
#4 94
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
even
#7 2.8
43% #8
3rd down
even
#7 37%
62% #17
Red zone
even
#16 63%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DALpass pro
even
HOUpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Danielle Hunter DE
15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE
12.0 sk#9
Jadeveon Clowney OLB
8.5 sk#20
1.8 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.8
DALrun block
even
HOUrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Will Anderson Jr. LDE
20.0 tfl#4
Tommy Togiai LDT
6.0 tfl#127
Sheldon Rankins RDT
5.0 tfl#176
Danielle Hunter RDE
15.0 tfl#8
Henry To'oTo'o WLB
9.0 tfl#51
126 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 94
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units HOU offense against what it runs into
HOU OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC DAL DEFENSE
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
OFF +16
#31 +0.22
-0.08 #30
Run game
even
#31 +0.09
233 #14
Pass yards
OFF +18
#32 266
109 #22
Rush yards
even
#23 125
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +15
#25 2.0
38% #24
3rd down
even
#31 48%
51% #31
Red zone
even
#31 72%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
HOUpass pro
line +15
DALpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Von Miller OLB
9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sk#30
James Houston DE
5.5 sk#59
1.8 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 2.0
HOUrun block
even
DALrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Quinnen Williams LDE
10.0 tfl#50
Otito Ogbonnia NT
3.0 tfl#342
Kenny Clark RDE
6.0 tfl#160
Rashan Gary WLB
7.0 tfl#101
DeMarvion Overshown LILB
1.0 tfl#533
109 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 125