Tennessee Titans
@
Baltimore Ravens
MODEL BAL 73%
Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 13:00
· M&T Bank Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: TEN 0 – 1 BAL
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
TEN OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
BAL OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
TEN OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
DEF +10
#21 +0.07
-0.06 #27
Run game
DEF +20
#7 -0.05
191 #29
Pass yards
even
#29 259
93 #30
Rush yards
DEF +20
#10 107
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
even
#30 1.8
32% #32
3rd down
DEF +22
#10 38%
61% #20
Red zone
DEF +13
#7 55%
BAL OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
even
#29 +0.17
+0.10 #2
Run game
OFF +21
#23 +0.01
193 #28
Pass yards
even
#26 248
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +13
#15 115
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
even
#14 2.5
41% #15
3rd down
even
#21 42%
60% #22
Red zone
OFF +8
#30 71%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
TEN PASS RUSH
vs
BAL PASS PRO
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sacks '25
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sacks '25
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.6 #21
sacks allowed /g
#30 2.5
BAL PASS RUSH
vs
TEN PASS PRO
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sacks '25
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sacks '25
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sacks '25
3.3 #27
sacks allowed /g
#14 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
TEN
Cam Ward QB
vs #21 PASS D
186.4 pass y/g 5/10
Tony Pollard RB
vs #7 RUN D
63.6 rush y/g 4/10
Carnell Tate WR1
vs #21 PASS D
— rec y/g
Wan'Dale Robinson WR2
2025: NYG
vs #21 PASS D
63.4 rec y/g 3/10
Calvin Ridley WR3
vs #21 PASS D
43.3 rec y/g 2/7
Gunnar Helm TE
vs #21 PASS D
22.3 rec y/g 6/10
BAL
Lamar Jackson QB
vs #29 PASS D
196.1 pass y/g 4/10
Derrick Henry RB
vs #23 RUN D
93.8 rush y/g 7/10
Zay Flowers WR1
vs #29 PASS D
71.2 rec y/g 5/10
Rashod Bateman WR2
vs #29 PASS D
17.2 rec y/g 3/10
Devontez Walker WR3
vs #29 PASS D
17.0 rec y/g 4/8
Mark Andrews TE
vs #29 PASS D
24.8 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.