no sides on this game yet · the record
TEN Jaren Kanak TE out BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Elijah Sarratt · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman
BAL win probability
ours 80%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TEN 18 – BAL 29 · BAL -11.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
BAL -8.75
BAL −11.0
4/10
—at the line
| book | BAL | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
18 designations · as of 3:45 PM
TEN · 9
| Jaren Kanak | TE | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Joshua Williams | CB | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | DE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Cedric Gray | LB | OUT | Concussion |
| Dorian Mausi | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jaylen Harrell | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Milo Eifler | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kendell Brooks | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Andre James | C | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
BAL · 9
| Adam Randall | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Devontez Walker | WR | OUT | Groin |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | DOUBTFUL | Wrist |
| Next up: Elijah Sarratt WR5 | |||
| Zay Flowers | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Danny Pinter | C | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Bilhal Kone | CB | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | DT | OUT | Neck |
| Teddye Buchanan | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| T.J. Tampa | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BAL
Run block vs frontTEN offense · BAL defense
TEN 91 #31
BAL #8 106
BAL
3rd downTEN offense · BAL defense
TEN 32% #32
BAL #10 38%
BAL
Run gameBAL offense · TEN defense
BAL +0.10 #2
TEN #23 +0.02
BAL
Run gameTEN offense · BAL defense
TEN -0.06 #27
BAL #7 -0.05
BAL
Run block vs frontBAL offense · TEN defense
BAL 162 #1
TEN #19 120
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #7
BAL
Red zoneTEN offense · BAL defense
TEN 61% #20
BAL #7 55%
BAL
Pass attackTEN offense · BAL defense
TEN -0.22 #31
BAL #21 +0.07
BAL
Red zoneBAL offense · TEN defense
BAL 60% #22
TEN #30 71%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
BAL
3rd downBAL offense · TEN defense
BAL 41% #15
TEN #21 42%
BAL
Pass attackBAL offense · TEN defense
BAL -0.04 #24
TEN #29 +0.17
BAL
Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · TEN defense
BAL 2.5 #20
TEN #25 1.9
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #11
TEN
Pass yardsBAL offense · TEN defense
BAL 193 #28
TEN #26 248
BAL
Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · BAL defense
TEN 3.2 #29
BAL #28 1.8
BAL
Pass yardsTEN offense · BAL defense
TEN 191 #29
BAL #29 259
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TEN offense against what it runs into
TEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC BAL DEFENSE
TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
DEF +10
#21 +0.07
-0.06 #27
Run game
DEF +20
#7 -0.05
191 #29
Pass yards
even
#29 259
93 #30
Rush yards
DEF +20
#10 107
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
even
#28 1.8
32% #32
3rd down
DEF +22
#10 38%
61% #20
Red zone
DEF +13
#7 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TENpass pro
even
BALpass rush
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sk#46
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sk#71
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sk#86
3.2 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
TENrun block
front +23
BALrun D
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE
2.0 tfl#365
Travis Jones NT
9.0 tfl#61
Calais Campbell RDE
9.0 tfl#57
Tavius Robinson WLB
3.0 tfl#327
Roquan Smith LILB
5.0 tfl#201
91 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 106
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BAL offense against what it runs into
BAL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC TEN DEFENSE
BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.
TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
even
#29 +0.17
+0.10 #2
Run game
OFF +21
#23 +0.02
193 #28
Pass yards
even
#26 248
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +13
#15 115
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#13 2.5
41% #15
3rd down
even
#21 42%
60% #22
Red zone
OFF +8
#30 71%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BALpass pro
even
TENpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sk#11
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sk#31
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sk#60
2.5 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 1.9
BALrun block
line +18
TENrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
John Franklin-Myers LDE
6.0 tfl#129
Jeffery Simmons LDT
17.0 tfl#7
Jordan Elliott RDT
1.0 tfl#559
Jermaine Johnson II RDE
5.0 tfl#186
Cedric Gray WLB
7.0 tfl#98
162 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 120