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Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 13:00 · M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: TEN 0 – 1 BAL
no sides on this game yet · the record
TEN Jaren Kanak TE out    BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Elijah Sarratt · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman
BAL win probability
ours 80% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TEN 18 – BAL 29 · BAL -11.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Ravensspread · margin, last 10
BAL -8.75
BAL −11.0
4/10
at the line
bookBALTEN
DK
CZR
Ravenstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

18 designations · as of 3:45 PM
TEN · 9
Jaren KanakTEOUTPectoral · IR
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Joshua WilliamsCBOUTPectoral · IR
Tanoh KpassagnonDEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cedric GrayLBOUTConcussion
Dorian MausiLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Jaylen HarrellLBOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Milo EiflerLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kendell BrooksSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Andre JamesCQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
BAL · 9
Adam RandallRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Devontez WalkerWROUTGroin
Ja'Kobi LaneWRDOUBTFULWrist
Next up: Elijah Sarratt WR5
Zay FlowersWRQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Danny PinterCOUTKnee · IR
Bilhal KoneCBOUTLower Body · IR
Nnamdi MadubuikeDTOUTNeck
Teddye BuchananLBOUTKnee - ACL
T.J. TampaCBQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BAL Run block vs frontTEN offense · BAL defense FRONT +23 TEN 91 #31 BAL #8 106
BAL 3rd downTEN offense · BAL defense DEF +22 TEN 32% #32 BAL #10 38%
BAL Run gameBAL offense · TEN defense OFF +21 BAL +0.10 #2 TEN #23 +0.02
BAL Run gameTEN offense · BAL defense DEF +20 TEN -0.06 #27 BAL #7 -0.05
BAL Run block vs frontBAL offense · TEN defense LINE +18 BAL 162 #1 TEN #19 120 Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #7
BAL Red zoneTEN offense · BAL defense DEF +13 TEN 61% #20 BAL #7 55%
BAL Pass attackTEN offense · BAL defense DEF +10 TEN -0.22 #31 BAL #21 +0.07
BAL Red zoneBAL offense · TEN defense OFF +8 BAL 60% #22 TEN #30 71%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
BAL 3rd downBAL offense · TEN defense OFF +6 BAL 41% #15 TEN #21 42%
BAL Pass attackBAL offense · TEN defense OFF +5 BAL -0.04 #24 TEN #29 +0.17
BAL Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · TEN defense LINE +5 BAL 2.5 #20 TEN #25 1.9 Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #11
TEN Pass yardsBAL offense · TEN defense DEF +2 BAL 193 #28 TEN #26 248
BAL Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · BAL defense RUSH +1 TEN 3.2 #29 BAL #28 1.8
BAL Pass yardsTEN offense · BAL defense DEF +0 TEN 191 #29 BAL #29 259

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

BAL DEFENSE TEN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 37% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units TEN offense against what it runs into

TEN OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC BAL DEFENSE

TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.

-0.22 #31 Pass attack DEF +10 #21 +0.07
-0.06 #27 Run game DEF +20 #7 -0.05
191 #29 Pass yards even #29 259
93 #30 Rush yards DEF +20 #10 107
3.3 #27 Pass pro vs rush even #28 1.8
32% #32 3rd down DEF +22 #10 38%
61% #20 Red zone DEF +13 #7 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

TENpass pro even BALpass rush
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona
RTJC Latham98%
Calais Campbell DE 6.5 sk#46
Travis Jones DT 5.0 sk#71
Tavius Robinson LB 4.5 sk#86
3.2 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
TENrun block front +23 BALrun D
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona
RTJC Latham98%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE 2.0 tfl#365
Travis Jones NT 9.0 tfl#61
Calais Campbell RDE 9.0 tfl#57
Tavius Robinson WLB 3.0 tfl#327
Roquan Smith LILB 5.0 tfl#201
91 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 106