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Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 16:25 · Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: LAC 0 – 1 SEA
no sides on this game yet · the record
LAC Scott Matlock FB out    SEA Jalen Milroe QB out · Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock
SEA win probability
ours 64% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAC 19 – SEA 24 · SEA -4.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Seahawksspread · margin, last 10
SEA -3
SEA −4.6
6/9
at the line
bookSEALAC
DK
CZR
Seahawkstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

16 designations · as of 4:00 PM
LAC · 9
Scott MatlockFBOUTUndisclosed · IR
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Deane LeonardCBOUTAbdomen
Alex HarkeyGOUTCoach's Decision
Branson TaylorGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Logan TaylorGOUTCoach's Decision
Trevor PenningGOUTCoach's Decision
Denzel PerrymanLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Isaiah WorldOTOUTKnee
RJ MickensSOUTCoach's Decision
SEA · 7
Jalen MilroeQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tory HortonWROUTHamstring
Sam DarnoldQBDOUBTFULHip
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Mike MorrisDEOUTCoach's Decision
Beau StephensGOUTCoach's Decision
Nick EmmanworiSOUTAnkle
Ty OkadaSOUTHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA Red zoneLAC offense · SEA defense DEF +26 LAC 52% #30 SEA #4 54%
SEA Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · SEA defense RUSH +23 LAC 3.5 #30 SEA #7 2.8
LAC Run gameSEA offense · LAC defense DEF +22 SEA -0.05 #26 LAC #4 -0.07
SEA Pass attackLAC offense · SEA defense DEF +18 LAC -0.05 #26 SEA #8 -0.10
LAC Red zoneSEA offense · LAC defense DEF +15 SEA 62% #18 LAC #3 52%
SEA Run gameLAC offense · SEA defense DEF +10 LAC +0.02 #11 SEA #1 -0.15
SEA Run block vs frontLAC offense · SEA defense FRONT +7 LAC 122 #11 SEA #4 94
LAC 3rd downSEA offense · LAC defense DEF +6 SEA 43% #10 LAC #4 35%
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
LAC Pass yardsSEA offense · LAC defense DEF +5 SEA 239 #9 LAC #4 195
LAC Run block vs frontSEA offense · LAC defense FRONT +4 SEA 120 #12 LAC #8 105 Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #5
SEA 3rd downLAC offense · SEA defense DEF +3 LAC 46% #4 SEA #1 33%
SEA Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · LAC defense LINE +3 SEA 1.7 #6 LAC #9 2.6 Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
SEA Pass yardsLAC offense · SEA defense DEF +3 LAC 233 #15 SEA #12 213
SEA Pass attackSEA offense · LAC defense OFF +1 SEA +0.11 #8 LAC #9 -0.09

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

SEA DEFENSE LAC OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LAC offense against what it runs into

LAC OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 SEA DEFENSE

LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.

-0.05 #26 Pass attack DEF +18 #8 -0.10
+0.02 #11 Run game DEF +10 #1 -0.15
233 #15 Pass yards even #12 213
122 #12 Rush yards DEF +9 #3 92
3.5 #30 Pass pro vs rush DEF +22 #8 2.8
46% #4 3rd down even #1 33%
52% #30 Red zone DEF +26 #4 54%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LACpass pro rush +23 SEApass rush
LTRashawn Slater
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Byron Murphy II DT 7.0 sk#36
Leonard Williams DE 7.0 sk#41
DeMarcus Lawrence LB 6.0 sk#50
3.5 #30sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
LACrun block even SEArun D
LTRashawn Slater
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Leonard Williams LDE 9.0 tfl#60
Byron Murphy II NT 7.0 tfl#114
Jarran Reed RDE 3.0 tfl#316
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB 11.0 tfl#28
Drake Thomas LILB 10.0 tfl#40
122 #11rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94