Los Angeles Chargers
@
Seattle Seahawks
MODEL SEA 69%
Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 16:25
· Lumen Field (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: LAC 0 – 1 SEA
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
LAC OFFENSE
vs
SEA DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
SEA OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
LAC OFFENSE
vs
SEA DEFENSE
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
DEF +18
#8 -0.10
+0.02 #11
Run game
DEF +10
#1 -0.15
233 #15
Pass yards
even
#12 213
122 #12
Rush yards
DEF +9
#3 92
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +22
#8 2.8
46% #4
3rd down
even
#1 33%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +26
#4 54%
SEA OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
even
#9 -0.09
-0.05 #26
Run game
DEF +22
#4 -0.07
239 #9
Pass yards
even
#4 195
123 #11
Rush yards
even
#8 105
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
even
#10 2.6
43% #10
3rd down
even
#4 35%
62% #18
Red zone
DEF +15
#3 52%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
LAC PASS RUSH
vs
SEA PASS PRO
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
14.0 sacks '25
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sacks '25
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sacks '25
1.6 #6
sacks allowed /g
#8 2.6
SEA PASS RUSH
vs
LAC PASS PRO
Byron Murphy II DT
9.0 sacks '25
Leonard Williams DE
8.0 sacks '25
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
8.0 sacks '25
3.5 #30
sacks allowed /g
#10 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
LAC
Justin Herbert QB
vs #8 PASS D
228.6 pass y/g 3/10
Omarion Hampton RB
vs #1 RUN D
54.4 rush y/g 5/10
Ladd McConkey WR1
vs #8 PASS D
48.3 rec y/g 3/10
Quentin Johnston WR2
vs #8 PASS D
53.9 rec y/g 2/10
Tre' Harris WR3
vs #8 PASS D
20.2 rec y/g 4/10
Oronde Gadsden TE
vs #8 PASS D
43.4 rec y/g 2/10
SEA
Sam Darnold QB
vs #9 PASS D
236.0 pass y/g 5/10
Zach Charbonnet RB
vs #4 RUN D
44.1 rush y/g 5/10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1
vs #9 PASS D
99.6 rec y/g 3/10
Rashid Shaheed WR2
vs #9 PASS D
36.4 rec y/g 3/10
Cooper Kupp WR3
vs #9 PASS D
39.5 rec y/g 3/10
AJ Barner TE
vs #9 PASS D
29.3 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.