no sides on this game yet · the record
LAC Scott Matlock FB out SEA Jalen Milroe QB out · Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock
SEA win probability
ours 64%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAC 19 – SEA 24 · SEA -4.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
SEA -3
SEA −4.6
6/9
—at the line
| book | SEA | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
16 designations · as of 4:00 PM
LAC · 9
| Scott Matlock | FB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Deane Leonard | CB | OUT | Abdomen |
| Alex Harkey | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Branson Taylor | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Logan Taylor | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Trevor Penning | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Denzel Perryman | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Isaiah World | OT | OUT | Knee |
| RJ Mickens | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
SEA · 7
| Jalen Milroe | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tory Horton | WR | OUT | Hamstring |
| Sam Darnold | QB | DOUBTFUL | Hip |
|
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Mike Morris | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Beau Stephens | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Nick Emmanwori | S | OUT | Ankle |
| Ty Okada | S | OUT | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA
Red zoneLAC offense · SEA defense
LAC 52% #30
SEA #4 54%
SEA
Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · SEA defense
LAC 3.5 #30
SEA #7 2.8
LAC
Run gameSEA offense · LAC defense
SEA -0.05 #26
LAC #4 -0.07
SEA
Pass attackLAC offense · SEA defense
LAC -0.05 #26
SEA #8 -0.10
LAC
Red zoneSEA offense · LAC defense
SEA 62% #18
LAC #3 52%
SEA
Run gameLAC offense · SEA defense
LAC +0.02 #11
SEA #1 -0.15
SEA
Run block vs frontLAC offense · SEA defense
LAC 122 #11
SEA #4 94
LAC
3rd downSEA offense · LAC defense
SEA 43% #10
LAC #4 35%
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
LAC
Pass yardsSEA offense · LAC defense
SEA 239 #9
LAC #4 195
LAC
Run block vs frontSEA offense · LAC defense
SEA 120 #12
LAC #8 105
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #5
SEA
3rd downLAC offense · SEA defense
LAC 46% #4
SEA #1 33%
SEA
Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · LAC defense
SEA 1.7 #6
LAC #9 2.6
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
SEA
Pass yardsLAC offense · SEA defense
LAC 233 #15
SEA #12 213
SEA
Pass attackSEA offense · LAC defense
SEA +0.11 #8
LAC #9 -0.09
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAC offense against what it runs into
LAC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
SEA DEFENSE
LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
DEF +18
#8 -0.10
+0.02 #11
Run game
DEF +10
#1 -0.15
233 #15
Pass yards
even
#12 213
122 #12
Rush yards
DEF +9
#3 92
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +22
#8 2.8
46% #4
3rd down
even
#1 33%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +26
#4 54%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LACpass pro
rush +23
SEApass rush
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Byron Murphy II DT
7.0 sk#36
Leonard Williams DE
7.0 sk#41
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
6.0 sk#50
3.5 #30sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
LACrun block
even
SEArun D
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Leonard Williams LDE
9.0 tfl#60
Byron Murphy II NT
7.0 tfl#114
Jarran Reed RDE
3.0 tfl#316
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB
11.0 tfl#28
Drake Thomas LILB
10.0 tfl#40
122 #11rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SEA offense against what it runs into
SEA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC LAC DEFENSE
SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.
LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
even
#9 -0.09
-0.05 #26
Run game
DEF +22
#4 -0.07
239 #9
Pass yards
even
#4 195
123 #11
Rush yards
even
#8 105
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
even
#10 2.6
43% #10
3rd down
even
#4 35%
62% #18
Red zone
DEF +15
#3 52%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SEApass pro
even
LACpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sk#53
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sk#62
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#9 2.6
SEArun block
even
LACrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Teair Tart LDE
4.0 tfl#215
Dalvin Tomlinson NT
3.0 tfl#287
Jamaree Caldwell RDE
5.0 tfl#187
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB
20.0 tfl#5
Daiyan Henley LILB
5.0 tfl#180
120 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 105