no sides on this game yet · the record
DET Isiah Pacheco RB out CAR Haynes King QB out · Trevor Etienne RB out · John Metchie III WR out · Ja'Tavion Sanders TE out
CAR win probability
ours 37%
book 41%
24%
54%
book is 4 pts higher
projected DET 26 – CAR 21 · DET -4.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CAR +3
CAR +4.3
5/9
—at the line
| book | CAR | DET |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
40.7%
ours 37.3%
4/10
DET−3.4 pts vs book
| book | CAR | DET |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| DK |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
21 designations · as of 11:45 PM
DET · 10
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | OUT | Back · IR |
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cade Mays | C | OUT | Wrist · IR |
| Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ahmed Hassanein | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Payton Turner | DE | OUT | Back · IR |
| Mekhi Wingo | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jimmy Rolder | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Giovanni Manu | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Christian Izien | S | OUT | Groin |
| Christian Mahogany | G | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
CAR · 11
| Haynes King | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Trevor Etienne | RB | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| John Metchie III | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cam Jackson | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Brady Christensen | G | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
| Bam Martin-Scott | LB | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
| Patrick Jones II | LB | OUT | Back |
| Albert Reese IV | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Taylor Moton | OT | OUT | Illness |
| Zakee Wheatley | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 3.4 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET
Pass attackDET offense · CAR defense
DET +0.17 #4
CAR #24 +0.11
DET
3rd downCAR offense · DET defense
CAR 36% #25
DET #9 37%
DET
3rd downDET offense · CAR defense
DET 39% #20
CAR #32 48%
DET
Pass pro vs rushDET offense · CAR defense
DET 2.3 #18
CAR #30 1.8
DET
Pass attackCAR offense · DET defense
CAR -0.05 #25
DET #14 -0.01
DET
Pass yardsDET offense · CAR defense
DET 269 #3
CAR #14 215
DET
Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · DET defense
CAR 2.1 #13
DET #6 2.8
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
DET
Red zoneDET offense · CAR defense
DET 70% #5
CAR #12 60%
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
DET
Pass yardsCAR offense · DET defense
CAR 194 #27
DET #21 237
DET
Run block vs frontDET offense · CAR defense
DET 120 #14
CAR #20 123
DET
Run block vs frontCAR offense · DET defense
CAR 116 #19
DET #13 115
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #13
DET
Run gameCAR offense · DET defense
CAR -0.03 #22
DET #18 -0.01
DET
Red zoneCAR offense · DET defense
CAR 59% #24
DET #23 68%
CAR
Run gameDET offense · CAR defense
DET -0.04 #24
CAR #24 +0.02
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DET offense against what it runs into
DET OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
CAR DEFENSE
DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +20
#24 +0.11
-0.04 #24
Run game
even
#24 +0.02
269 #3
Pass yards
OFF +11
#14 215
120 #14
Rush yards
even
#20 123
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +12
#30 1.8
39% #20
3rd down
OFF +12
#32 48%
70% #5
Red zone
even
#12 60%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DETpass pro
line +12
CARpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sk#69
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sk#72
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sk#78
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
DETrun block
even
CARrun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Derrick Brown LDE
5.0 tfl#193
Lee Hunter NT
—
Bobby Brown III RDE
3.0 tfl#354
Patrick Jones II WLB
2.0 tfl#383
Devin Lloyd LILB
6.0 tfl#132
120 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#20 123
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CAR offense against what it runs into
CAR OFFENSE
2025
DET DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
DEF +11
#14 -0.01
-0.03 #22
Run game
even
#18 -0.01
194 #27
Pass yards
even
#21 237
116 #19
Rush yards
even
#14 115
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
even
#6 2.8
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +16
#9 37%
59% #24
Red zone
even
#23 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CARpass pro
even
DETpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sk#71
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sk#101
2.1 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
CARrun block
even
DETrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Aidan Hutchinson LDE
14.0 tfl#13
Alim McNeill LDT
2.0 tfl#366
Tyleik Williams RDT
2.0 tfl#458
DJ Wonnum RDE
4.0 tfl#235
Derrick Barnes WLB
6.0 tfl#160
116 #19rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 115