Detroit Lions
@
Carolina Panthers
MODEL CAR 42%
Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 20:20
· Bank of America Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: DET 1 – 1 CAR
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DET OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
CAR OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DET OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +20
#24 +0.11
-0.04 #24
Run game
even
#24 +0.02
269 #3
Pass yards
OFF +11
#14 215
120 #14
Rush yards
even
#20 123
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +10
#28 1.8
39% #20
3rd down
OFF +12
#32 48%
70% #5
Red zone
even
#12 60%
CAR OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
DEF +11
#14 -0.01
-0.03 #22
Run game
even
#18 -0.01
194 #27
Pass yards
even
#21 237
116 #19
Rush yards
even
#14 115
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#5 2.8
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +16
#9 37%
59% #24
Red zone
even
#23 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DET PASS RUSH
vs
CAR PASS PRO
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sacks '25
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sacks '25
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sacks '25
2.1 #13
sacks allowed /g
#28 2.8
CAR PASS RUSH
vs
DET PASS PRO
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sacks '25
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sacks '25
Nic Scourton LB
5.0 sacks '25
2.3 #18
sacks allowed /g
#5 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DET
Jared Goff QB
vs #24 PASS D
268.5 pass y/g 7/10
Jahmyr Gibbs RB
vs #24 RUN D
71.9 rush y/g 3/10
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1
vs #24 PASS D
82.4 rec y/g 5/10
Jameson Williams WR2
vs #24 PASS D
65.7 rec y/g 8/10
Isaac TeSlaa WR3
vs #24 PASS D
17.1 rec y/g 5/10
Sam LaPorta TE
vs #24 PASS D
54.3 rec y/g 4/9
CAR
Bryce Young QB
vs #14 PASS D
192.6 pass y/g 4/10
Chuba Hubbard RB
vs #18 RUN D
34.8 rush y/g 2/10
Tetairoa McMillan WR1
vs #14 PASS D
60.8 rec y/g 4/10
Jalen Coker WR2
vs #14 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 6/10
Xavier Legette WR3
vs #14 PASS D
23.2 rec y/g 2/10
Tommy Tremble TE
vs #14 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.