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Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 20:20 · Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: DET 1 – 1 CAR
no sides on this game yet · the record
DET Isiah Pacheco RB out    CAR Haynes King QB out · Trevor Etienne RB out · John Metchie III WR out · Ja'Tavion Sanders TE out
CAR win probability
ours 37% book 41%
24%
54%
book is 4 pts higher
projected DET 26 – CAR 21 · DET -4.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Panthersspread · margin, last 10
CAR +3
CAR +4.3
5/9
at the line
bookCARDET
DK
CZR
Pantherstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
Panthersmoneyline · wins, last 10
40.7%
ours 37.3%
4/10
DET−3.4 pts vs book
bookCARDET
CZR
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

21 designations · as of 11:45 PM
DET · 10
Isiah PachecoRBOUTBack · IR
9 more · line, defense, specialists
Cade MaysCOUTWrist · IR
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.CBOUTCoach's Decision
Ahmed HassaneinDEOUTCoach's Decision
Payton TurnerDEOUTBack · IR
Mekhi WingoDTOUTCoach's Decision
Jimmy RolderLBOUTCoach's Decision
Giovanni ManuOTOUTKnee
Christian IzienSOUTGroin
Christian MahoganyGQUESTIONABLEKnee
CAR · 11
Haynes KingQBOUTCoach's Decision
Trevor EtienneRBOUTAnkle · IR
John Metchie IIIWROUTCoach's Decision
Ja'Tavion SandersTEOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Cam JacksonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Brady ChristensenGOUTHamstring · IR
Bam Martin-ScottLBOUTHamstring · IR
Patrick Jones IILBOUTBack
Albert Reese IVOTOUTCoach's Decision
Taylor MotonOTOUTIllness
Zakee WheatleySOUTCoach's Decision

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 3.4 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET Pass attackDET offense · CAR defense OFF +20 DET +0.17 #4 CAR #24 +0.11
DET 3rd downCAR offense · DET defense DEF +16 CAR 36% #25 DET #9 37%
DET 3rd downDET offense · CAR defense OFF +12 DET 39% #20 CAR #32 48%
DET Pass pro vs rushDET offense · CAR defense LINE +12 DET 2.3 #18 CAR #30 1.8
DET Pass attackCAR offense · DET defense DEF +11 CAR -0.05 #25 DET #14 -0.01
DET Pass yardsDET offense · CAR defense OFF +11 DET 269 #3 CAR #14 215
DET Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · DET defense RUSH +7 CAR 2.1 #13 DET #6 2.8 Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
DET Red zoneDET offense · CAR defense OFF +7 DET 70% #5 CAR #12 60%
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
DET Pass yardsCAR offense · DET defense DEF +6 CAR 194 #27 DET #21 237
DET Run block vs frontDET offense · CAR defense LINE +6 DET 120 #14 CAR #20 123
DET Run block vs frontCAR offense · DET defense FRONT +6 CAR 116 #19 DET #13 115 Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #13
DET Run gameCAR offense · DET defense DEF +4 CAR -0.03 #22 DET #18 -0.01
DET Red zoneCAR offense · DET defense DEF +1 CAR 59% #24 DET #23 68%
CAR Run gameDET offense · CAR defense DEF +0 DET -0.04 #24 CAR #24 +0.02

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

CAR DEFENSE DET OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DET offense against what it runs into

DET OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 CAR DEFENSE

DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.

+0.17 #4 Pass attack OFF +20 #24 +0.11
-0.04 #24 Run game even #24 +0.02
269 #3 Pass yards OFF +11 #14 215
120 #14 Rush yards even #20 123
2.3 #18 Pass pro vs rush OFF +12 #30 1.8
39% #20 3rd down OFF +12 #32 48%
70% #5 Red zone even #12 60%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DETpass pro line +12 CARpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller
Tyrel Dodson LB 5.0 sk#69
Derrick Brown DT 5.0 sk#72
Jaelan Phillips LB 5.0 sk#78
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
DETrun block even CARrun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller
Derrick Brown LDE 5.0 tfl#193
Lee Hunter NT
Bobby Brown III RDE 3.0 tfl#354
Patrick Jones II WLB 2.0 tfl#383
Devin Lloyd LILB 6.0 tfl#132
120 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#20 123