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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns ★ DIV · AFC NORTH ★

Week 4 · 2026-10-01 · 20:15 · Huntington Bank Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: PIT 6 – 4 CLE
no sides on this game yet · the record
CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Joe Royer TE out · Dylan Sampson RB q → Raheim Sanders
CLE win probability
ours 48% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PIT 21 – CLE 21 · PIT -0.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Brownsspread · margin, last 10
CLE +2.75
CLE +0.6
4/10
at the line
bookCLEPIT
DK
CZR
Brownstotal · points in the game, last 10
40.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

14 designations · as of 8:00 PM
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Donte KentCBOUTUndisclosed
Joey Porter Jr.CBOUTBack
Jack DriscollOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
DeShon ElliottSOUTUndisclosed · IR
CLE · 10
Dillon GabrielQBOUTBack · IR
Joe RoyerTEOUTPersonal
Dylan SampsonRBQUESTIONABLEKnee
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Parker BrailsfordCOUTThumb
Elijah ChatmanDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kalia DavisDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kendrick GreenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Teven JenkinsGOUTBack
Edefuan UlofoshioLBOUTBiceps · IR
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBOUTNeck

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PIT Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · PIT defense RUSH +26 CLE 3.3 #30 PIT #4 3.1
CLE Pass yardsPIT offense · CLE defense DEF +19 PIT 214 #22 CLE #3 189
PIT Red zoneCLE offense · PIT defense DEF +19 CLE 55% #28 PIT #9 58%
PIT Pass attackCLE offense · PIT defense DEF +15 CLE -0.29 #32 PIT #17 +0.03
PIT Run block vs frontCLE offense · PIT defense FRONT +14 CLE 96 #27 PIT #13 114
CLE Pass attackPIT offense · CLE defense DEF +12 PIT +0.03 #16 CLE #4 -0.13
PIT Red zonePIT offense · CLE defense OFF +9 PIT 66% #11 CLE #20 66%
CLE Run block vs frontPIT offense · CLE defense FRONT +8 PIT 98 #26 CLE #18 118
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
CLE 3rd downPIT offense · CLE defense DEF +6 PIT 41% #14 CLE #8 37%
CLE Run gamePIT offense · CLE defense DEF +5 PIT +0.02 #10 CLE #5 -0.05
PIT Run gameCLE offense · PIT defense DEF +5 CLE -0.05 #25 PIT #20 +0.00
PIT 3rd downCLE offense · PIT defense DEF +3 CLE 34% #28 PIT #25 43%
PIT Pass yardsCLE offense · PIT defense DEF +1 CLE 185 #31 PIT #30 261
CLE Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · CLE defense RUSH +0 PIT 1.9 #8 CLE #8 2.6

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

CLE DEFENSE PIT OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units PIT offense against what it runs into

PIT OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC CLE DEFENSE

PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.
CLE defence: Jim Schwartz called these → Mike Rutenberg calls it now.

+0.03 #16 Pass attack DEF +12 #4 -0.13
+0.02 #10 Run game even #5 -0.05
214 #22 Pass yards DEF +19 #3 189
103 #26 Rush yards DEF +10 #16 116
1.8 #9 Pass pro vs rush even #3 3.1
41% #14 3rd down even #8 37%
66% #11 Red zone OFF +9 #20 66%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

PITpass pro even CLEpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Jared Verse DE 7.5 sk#32
Maliek Collins DT 6.5 sk#46
Derek Barnett DE 5.0 sk#71
1.9 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.6
PITrun block front +8 CLErun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Isaiah McGuire LDE 8.0 tfl#83
Mason Graham LDT 7.0 tfl#89
Maliek Collins RDT 7.0 tfl#122
Jared Verse RDE 11.0 tfl#27
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold WLB
98 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#18 118