Pittsburgh Steelers
@
Cleveland Browns
DIV
BOOK CLE 45%
MODEL CLE 46%
Week 4 · 2026-10-01 · 20:15
· Huntington Bank Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: PIT 6 – 4 CLE
PIT -2.5
Vegas line (context)
40.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
PIT OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Ball-control
CLE OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
PIT OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
DEF +12
#4 -0.13
+0.02 #10
Run game
even
#5 -0.05
214 #22
Pass yards
DEF +19
#3 189
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +10
#16 116
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#3 3.1
41% #14
3rd down
even
#8 37%
66% #11
Red zone
OFF +9
#20 66%
CLE OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
DEF +15
#17 +0.03
-0.05 #25
Run game
even
#20 +0.00
185 #31
Pass yards
even
#30 261
97 #27
Rush yards
DEF +14
#13 113
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +20
#6 2.8
34% #28
3rd down
even
#25 43%
55% #28
Red zone
DEF +19
#9 58%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
PIT PASS RUSH
vs
CLE PASS PRO
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sacks '25
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sacks '25
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sacks '25
3.0 #26
sacks allowed /g
#3 2.8
CLE PASS RUSH
vs
PIT PASS PRO
Jared Verse DE
8.5 sacks '25
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sacks '25
Alex Wright DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.8 #11
sacks allowed /g
#6 3.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB
vs #4 PASS D
204.0 pass y/g 4/10
Jaylen Warren RB
vs #5 RUN D
58.9 rush y/g 6/10
DK Metcalf WR1
vs #4 PASS D
55.8 rec y/g 1/10
Michael Pittman Jr. WR2
2025: IND
vs #4 PASS D
46.1 rec y/g 3/10
Roman Wilson WR3
vs #4 PASS D
18.4 rec y/g 2/9
Pat Freiermuth TE
vs #4 PASS D
31.5 rec y/g 4/10
CLE
Deshaun Watson QB
vs #17 PASS D
— pass y/g
Quinshon Judkins RB
vs #20 RUN D
59.1 rush y/g 3/10
Jerry Jeudy WR1
vs #17 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 4/10
KC Concepcion WR2
vs #17 PASS D
— rec y/g
Denzel Boston WR3
vs #17 PASS D
— rec y/g
Harold Fannin Jr. TE
vs #17 PASS D
45.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.