Indianapolis Colts
@
Washington Commanders
BOOK WAS 52%
MODEL WAS 42%
Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 09:30
· Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: IND 0 – 1 WAS
WAS -1.5
Vegas line (context)
50.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
IND OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
WAS OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
IND OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
OFF +18
#30 +0.20
+0.09 #3
Run game
OFF +25
#28 +0.07
240 #8
Pass yards
OFF +20
#28 257
118 #17
Rush yards
OFF +13
#30 142
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
even
#13 2.5
43% #7
3rd down
OFF +16
#23 42%
68% #7
Red zone
OFF +21
#28 70%
WAS OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
even
#19 +0.04
+0.02 #9
Run game
even
#9 -0.05
196 #24
Pass yards
even
#31 262
135 #4
Rush yards
even
#7 102
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
even
#15 2.3
38% #22
3rd down
even
#26 43%
70% #4
Red zone
even
#5 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
IND PASS RUSH
vs
WAS PASS PRO
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sacks '25
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sacks '25
Adetomiwa Adebawore DT
4.0 sacks '25
2.2 #15
sacks allowed /g
#13 2.3
WAS PASS RUSH
vs
IND PASS PRO
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
10.5 sacks '25
Odafe Oweh LB
10.5 sacks '25
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.7 #8
sacks allowed /g
#15 2.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
IND
Daniel Jones QB
vs #30 PASS D
238.5 pass y/g 5/10
Jonathan Taylor RB
vs #28 RUN D
93.2 rush y/g 2/10
Alec Pierce WR1
vs #30 PASS D
66.9 rec y/g 7/10
Josh Downs WR2
vs #30 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 5/10
Ashton Dulin WR3
vs #30 PASS D
8.8 rec y/g 3/10
Tyler Warren TE
vs #30 PASS D
48.1 rec y/g 2/10
WAS
Jayden Daniels QB
vs #19 PASS D
180.3 pass y/g 4/7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
vs #9 RUN D
47.4 rush y/g 2/10
Terry McLaurin WR1
vs #19 PASS D
58.2 rec y/g 4/10
Antonio Williams WR2
vs #19 PASS D
— rec y/g
Luke McCaffrey WR3
vs #19 PASS D
22.6 rec y/g 4/9
Chig Okonkwo TE
2025: TEN
vs #19 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.