no sides on this game yet · the record
IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q WAS Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates
WAS win probability
ours 47%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected IND 25 – WAS 24 · IND -1.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
WAS -1.25opened -0.25
WAS +1.0
2/10
—at the line
| book | WAS | IND |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR | ||
| SCORE | ||
| FD |
50.5opened 49.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| SCORE | ||
| DK | ||
| FD |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 8:00 PM
IND · 6
| D.J. Montgomery | WR | OUT | Abdomen · IR |
| Carson Towt | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Will Mallory | TE | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Alec Pierce | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Wrist |
|
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
| |||
| Sean McKeon | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Austin Ajiake | LB | OUT | Hamstring |
WAS · 4
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Frankie Luvu | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
| Jordan Magee | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
| Tyler Owens | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND
Run gameIND offense · WAS defense
IND +0.09 #3
WAS #28 +0.07
IND
Red zoneIND offense · WAS defense
IND 68% #7
WAS #28 70%
IND
Pass yardsIND offense · WAS defense
IND 240 #8
WAS #28 257
IND
Pass attackIND offense · WAS defense
IND +0.06 #12
WAS #30 +0.20
IND
3rd downIND offense · WAS defense
IND 43% #7
WAS #23 42%
IND
Run block vs frontIND offense · WAS defense
IND 116 #18
WAS #31 141
WAS
Run block vs frontWAS offense · IND defense
WAS 134 #4
IND #17 117
WAS
Pass yardsWAS offense · IND defense
WAS 196 #24
IND #31 262
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
WAS
Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · IND defense
WAS 2.0 #11
IND #17 2.2
WAS
3rd downWAS offense · IND defense
WAS 38% #22
IND #26 43%
IND
Pass pro vs rushIND offense · WAS defense
IND 1.8 #7
WAS #10 2.6
WAS
Pass attackWAS offense · IND defense
WAS -0.01 #18
IND #19 +0.04
WAS
Red zoneWAS offense · IND defense
WAS 70% #4
IND #5 55%
IND
Run gameWAS offense · IND defense
WAS +0.02 #9
IND #9 -0.05
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units IND offense against what it runs into
IND OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC WAS DEFENSE
WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
OFF +18
#30 +0.20
+0.09 #3
Run game
OFF +25
#28 +0.07
240 #8
Pass yards
OFF +20
#28 257
118 #17
Rush yards
OFF +13
#30 142
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
even
#14 2.5
43% #7
3rd down
OFF +16
#23 42%
68% #7
Red zone
OFF +21
#28 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
INDpass pro
even
WASpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
7.5 sk#33
Odafe Oweh LB
7.5 sk#29
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sk#65
1.8 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
INDrun block
line +13
WASrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Tim Settle LDE
3.0 tfl#334
Daron Payne NT
7.0 tfl#106
Javon Kinlaw RDE
5.0 tfl#205
Odafe Oweh WLB
9.0 tfl#56
Frankie Luvu LILB
5.0 tfl#186
116 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#31 141
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units WAS offense against what it runs into
WAS OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
IND DEFENSE
WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
even
#19 +0.04
+0.02 #9
Run game
even
#9 -0.05
196 #24
Pass yards
even
#31 262
135 #4
Rush yards
even
#7 102
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
even
#16 2.3
38% #22
3rd down
even
#26 43%
70% #4
Red zone
even
#5 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
WASpass pro
even
INDpass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sk#21
Arden Key DE
4.0 sk#99
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sk#101
2.0 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
WASrun block
line +13
INDrun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Arden Key LDE
6.0 tfl#126
Grover Stewart LDT
5.0 tfl#187
DeForest Buckner RDT
9.0 tfl#64
Laiatu Latu RDE
12.0 tfl#22
Jaylon Carlies WLB
—
134 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 117