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Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 09:30 · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: IND 0 – 1 WAS
no sides on this game yet · the record
IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q    WAS Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates
WAS win probability
ours 47% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected IND 25 – WAS 24 · IND -1.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Commandersspread · margin, last 10
WAS -1.25opened -0.25
WAS +1.0
2/10
at the line
bookWASIND
DK
CZR
SCORE
FD
Commanderstotal · points in the game, last 10
50.5opened 49.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
CZR
SCORE
DK
FD
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 8:00 PM
IND · 6
D.J. MontgomeryWROUTAbdomen · IR
Carson TowtTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Will MalloryTEOUTThumb · IR
Alec PierceWRQUESTIONABLEWrist
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
Sean McKeonTEQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Austin AjiakeLBOUTHamstring
WAS · 4
Chig OkonkwoTEQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Frankie LuvuLBQUESTIONABLEGroin
Jordan MageeLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Tyler OwensSQUESTIONABLEAnkle

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND Run gameIND offense · WAS defense OFF +25 IND +0.09 #3 WAS #28 +0.07
IND Red zoneIND offense · WAS defense OFF +21 IND 68% #7 WAS #28 70%
IND Pass yardsIND offense · WAS defense OFF +20 IND 240 #8 WAS #28 257
IND Pass attackIND offense · WAS defense OFF +18 IND +0.06 #12 WAS #30 +0.20
IND 3rd downIND offense · WAS defense OFF +16 IND 43% #7 WAS #23 42%
IND Run block vs frontIND offense · WAS defense LINE +13 IND 116 #18 WAS #31 141
WAS Run block vs frontWAS offense · IND defense LINE +13 WAS 134 #4 IND #17 117
WAS Pass yardsWAS offense · IND defense OFF +7 WAS 196 #24 IND #31 262
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
WAS Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · IND defense LINE +6 WAS 2.0 #11 IND #17 2.2
WAS 3rd downWAS offense · IND defense OFF +4 WAS 38% #22 IND #26 43%
IND Pass pro vs rushIND offense · WAS defense LINE +3 IND 1.8 #7 WAS #10 2.6
WAS Pass attackWAS offense · IND defense OFF +1 WAS -0.01 #18 IND #19 +0.04
WAS Red zoneWAS offense · IND defense OFF +1 WAS 70% #4 IND #5 55%
IND Run gameWAS offense · IND defense DEF +0 WAS +0.02 #9 IND #9 -0.05

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

WAS DEFENSE IND OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units IND offense against what it runs into

IND OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC WAS DEFENSE

WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.

+0.06 #12 Pass attack OFF +18 #30 +0.20
+0.09 #3 Run game OFF +25 #28 +0.07
240 #8 Pass yards OFF +20 #28 257
118 #17 Rush yards OFF +13 #30 142
1.7 #8 Pass pro vs rush even #14 2.5
43% #7 3rd down OFF +16 #23 42%
68% #7 Red zone OFF +21 #28 70%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

INDpass pro even WASpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB 7.5 sk#33
Odafe Oweh LB 7.5 sk#29
Dorance Armstrong DE 5.5 sk#65
1.8 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
INDrun block line +13 WASrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Tim Settle LDE 3.0 tfl#334
Daron Payne NT 7.0 tfl#106
Javon Kinlaw RDE 5.0 tfl#205
Odafe Oweh WLB 9.0 tfl#56
Frankie Luvu LILB 5.0 tfl#186
116 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#31 141