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Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 16:05 · U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: MIA 0 – 1 MIN
no sides on this game yet · the record
MIA Brady Cook QB out · Jalen Tolbert WR out · Cole Turner TE out · Justin Joly TE out    MIN J.J. McCarthy QB out · Demond Claiborne RB out · Ben Yurosek TE out
MIN win probability
ours 69% book 77%
58%
88%
book is 8 pts higher
projected MIA 18 – MIN 24 · MIN -6.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Vikingsspread · margin, last 10
MIN -7.25
MIN −6.5
4/10
at the line
bookMINMIA
DK
CZR
Vikingstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
Vikingsmoneyline · wins, last 10
77.2%
ours 69.0%
6/10
MIA−8.1 pts vs book
bookMINMIA
CZR
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

21 designations · as of 4:00 PM
MIA · 11
Brady CookQBOUTCoach's Decision
Jalen TolbertWROUTCoach's Decision
Cole TurnerTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Justin JolyTEOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Darrell Baker Jr.CBOUTUndisclosed
Reese TaylorCBOUTCoach's Decision
Storm DuckCBOUTKnee
Kenneth GrantDTOUTLeg · IR
DJ CampbellGOUTCoach's Decision
Trey MooreLBOUTAnkle · IR
Chukwuebuka GodrickOTOUTCoach's Decision
MIN · 10
J.J. McCarthyQBOUTCoach's Decision
Demond ClaiborneRBOUTCoach's Decision
Ben YurosekTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael JurgensCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Nick SamacCOUTCoach's Decision
Zemaiah VaughnCBOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah WilliamsDEOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler BattyLBOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Caleb TiernanOTOUTCoach's Decision
Jakobe ThomasSOUTCoach's Decision

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 8.1 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
MIN 3rd downMIA offense · MIN defense DEF +23 MIA 35% #26 MIN #3 35%
MIN Pass yardsMIA offense · MIN defense DEF +23 MIA 195 #25 MIN #2 178
MIN Pass attackMIA offense · MIN defense DEF +18 MIA -0.01 #20 MIN #2 -0.15
MIA Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · MIA defense RUSH +15 MIN 3.5 #29 MIA #14 2.3
MIN Run gameMIA offense · MIN defense DEF +15 MIA -0.03 #21 MIN #6 -0.05
MIA 3rd downMIN offense · MIA defense DEF +13 MIN 32% #31 MIA #18 41%
MIN Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · MIN defense RUSH +12 MIA 2.2 #16 MIN #4 2.9
MIA Pass yardsMIN offense · MIA defense DEF +12 MIN 189 #30 MIA #18 231
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
MIN Red zoneMIA offense · MIN defense DEF +12 MIA 64% #14 MIN #2 49%
MIA Run block vs frontMIA offense · MIN defense LINE +8 MIA 120 #13 MIN #21 124 Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
MIN Run gameMIN offense · MIA defense OFF +7 MIN -0.01 #20 MIA #27 +0.04
MIA Pass attackMIN offense · MIA defense DEF +4 MIN -0.19 #30 MIA #26 +0.13
MIA Red zoneMIN offense · MIA defense DEF +2 MIN 61% #21 MIA #19 66%
MIN Run block vs frontMIN offense · MIA defense LINE +2 MIN 108 #24 MIA #26 132 Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl #15

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

MIN DEFENSE MIA OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units MIA offense against what it runs into

MIA OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 MIN DEFENSE

MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.

-0.01 #20 Pass attack DEF +18 #2 -0.15
-0.03 #21 Run game DEF +15 #6 -0.05
195 #25 Pass yards DEF +23 #2 178
120 #13 Rush yards OFF +8 #21 124
2.2 #16 Pass pro vs rush DEF +12 #4 2.9
35% #26 3rd down DEF +23 #3 35%
64% #14 Red zone DEF +12 #2 49%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

MIApass pro rush +12 MINpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Dallas Turner LB 8.0 sk#27
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB 7.0 sk#42
Eric Wilson LB 6.5 sk#46
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 2.9
MIArun block line +8 MINrun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE 8.0 tfl#81
Caleb Banks NT
Jalen Redmond RDE 12.0 tfl#24
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB 11.0 tfl#35
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl#6
120 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 124