Miami Dolphins
@
Minnesota Vikings
MODEL MIN 64%
Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 16:05
· U.S. Bank Stadium (dome)
· sportturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: MIA 0 – 1 MIN
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
MIA OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
MIN OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
MIA OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
DEF +18
#2 -0.15
-0.03 #21
Run game
DEF +15
#6 -0.05
195 #25
Pass yards
DEF +23
#2 178
120 #13
Rush yards
OFF +8
#21 124
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +13
#4 2.9
35% #26
3rd down
DEF +23
#3 35%
64% #14
Red zone
DEF +12
#2 49%
MIN OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
even
#26 +0.13
-0.01 #20
Run game
even
#27 +0.04
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +12
#18 231
108 #23
Rush yards
even
#26 132
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +15
#16 2.3
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +13
#18 41%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#19 66%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
MIA PASS RUSH
vs
MIN PASS PRO
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sacks '25
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sacks '25
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sacks '25
3.5 #31
sacks allowed /g
#4 2.3
MIN PASS RUSH
vs
MIA PASS PRO
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sacks '25
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sacks '25
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sacks '25
2.2 #17
sacks allowed /g
#16 2.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
MIA
Malik Willis QB
2025: GB
vs #2 PASS D
105.5 pass y/g 2/4
De'Von Achane RB
vs #6 RUN D
84.4 rush y/g 4/10
Malik Washington WR1
vs #2 PASS D
18.6 rec y/g 5/10
Jalen Tolbert WR2
2025: DAL
vs #2 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 4/10
Tutu Atwell WR3
2025: LAR
vs #2 PASS D
24.0 rec y/g 2/8
Greg Dulcich TE
vs #2 PASS D
37.2 rec y/g 5/9
MIN
Kyler Murray QB
2025: ARI
vs #26 PASS D
192.4 pass y/g 3/5
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
vs #27 RUN D
45.7 rush y/g 6/10
Justin Jefferson WR1
vs #26 PASS D
61.6 rec y/g 2/10
Jordan Addison WR2
vs #26 PASS D
43.6 rec y/g 3/10
Jauan Jennings WR3
2025: SF
vs #26 PASS D
41.8 rec y/g 5/10
T.J. Hockenson TE
vs #26 PASS D
29.2 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.