no sides on this game yet · the record
MIA Brady Cook QB out · Jalen Tolbert WR out · Cole Turner TE out · Justin Joly TE out MIN J.J. McCarthy QB out · Demond Claiborne RB out · Ben Yurosek TE out
MIN win probability
ours 69%
book 77%
58%
88%
book is 8 pts higher
projected MIA 18 – MIN 24 · MIN -6.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
MIN -7.25
MIN −6.5
4/10
—at the line
| book | MIN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
43.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
77.2%
ours 69.0%
6/10
MIA−8.1 pts vs book
| book | MIN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| DK |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
21 designations · as of 4:00 PM
MIA · 11
| Brady Cook | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jalen Tolbert | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Cole Turner | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Justin Joly | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Darrell Baker Jr. | CB | OUT | Undisclosed |
| Reese Taylor | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Storm Duck | CB | OUT | Knee |
| Kenneth Grant | DT | OUT | Leg · IR |
| DJ Campbell | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Trey Moore | LB | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Chukwuebuka Godrick | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
MIN · 10
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Demond Claiborne | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ben Yurosek | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Michael Jurgens | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Nick Samac | C | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Zemaiah Vaughn | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Williams | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Batty | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Caleb Tiernan | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jakobe Thomas | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 8.1 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
MIN
3rd downMIA offense · MIN defense
MIA 35% #26
MIN #3 35%
MIN
Pass yardsMIA offense · MIN defense
MIA 195 #25
MIN #2 178
MIN
Pass attackMIA offense · MIN defense
MIA -0.01 #20
MIN #2 -0.15
MIA
Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · MIA defense
MIN 3.5 #29
MIA #14 2.3
MIN
Run gameMIA offense · MIN defense
MIA -0.03 #21
MIN #6 -0.05
MIA
3rd downMIN offense · MIA defense
MIN 32% #31
MIA #18 41%
MIN
Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · MIN defense
MIA 2.2 #16
MIN #4 2.9
MIA
Pass yardsMIN offense · MIA defense
MIN 189 #30
MIA #18 231
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
MIN
Red zoneMIA offense · MIN defense
MIA 64% #14
MIN #2 49%
MIA
Run block vs frontMIA offense · MIN defense
MIA 120 #13
MIN #21 124
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
MIN
Run gameMIN offense · MIA defense
MIN -0.01 #20
MIA #27 +0.04
MIA
Pass attackMIN offense · MIA defense
MIN -0.19 #30
MIA #26 +0.13
MIA
Red zoneMIN offense · MIA defense
MIN 61% #21
MIA #19 66%
MIN
Run block vs frontMIN offense · MIA defense
MIN 108 #24
MIA #26 132
Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl #15
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIA offense against what it runs into
MIA OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
MIN DEFENSE
MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
DEF +18
#2 -0.15
-0.03 #21
Run game
DEF +15
#6 -0.05
195 #25
Pass yards
DEF +23
#2 178
120 #13
Rush yards
OFF +8
#21 124
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +12
#4 2.9
35% #26
3rd down
DEF +23
#3 35%
64% #14
Red zone
DEF +12
#2 49%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MIApass pro
rush +12
MINpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sk#27
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sk#42
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sk#46
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 2.9
MIArun block
line +8
MINrun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE
8.0 tfl#81
Caleb Banks NT
—
Jalen Redmond RDE
12.0 tfl#24
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB
11.0 tfl#35
Eric Wilson LILB
17.0 tfl#6
120 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 124
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIN offense against what it runs into
MIN OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC MIA DEFENSE
MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
even
#26 +0.13
-0.01 #20
Run game
even
#27 +0.04
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +12
#18 231
108 #23
Rush yards
even
#26 132
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#15 2.3
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +13
#18 41%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#19 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MINpass pro
rush +15
MIApass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sk#66
Clelin Ferrell DE
4.0 sk#97
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sk#94
3.5 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
MINrun block
even
MIArun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Chop Robinson LDE
4.0 tfl#224
Jordan Phillips LDT
2.0 tfl#362
Zach Sieler RDT
10.0 tfl#50
Josh Uche RDE
2.0 tfl#393
Jordyn Brooks WLB
13.0 tfl#15
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132