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Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 13:00 · Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: GB 1 – 1 TB
no sides on this game yet · the record
GB Josh Jacobs RB out · J. Michael Sturdivant WR out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q    TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III
TB win probability
ours 50% book 47%
33%
63%
book is 3 pts lower
projected GB 23 – TB 23 · TB -0.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Buccaneersspread · margin, last 10
TB +1.5
TB −0.1
4/10
at the line
bookTBGB
DK
CZR
Buccaneerstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
Buccaneersmoneyline · wins, last 10
46.8%
ours 50.2%
3/10
TB+3.4 pts vs book
bookTBGB
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
GB · 11
Josh JacobsRBOUTPersonal
J. Michael SturdivantWROUTCoach's Decision
Savion WilliamsWROUTAnkle · IR
Josh WhyleTEQUESTIONABLENeck
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Anthony CampbellDTOUTCoach's Decision
Jordon RileyDTOUTAchilles
Warren BrinsonDTOUTCalf
Aaron BanksGOUTKnee
Ty'Ron HopperLBOUTAchilles
Travis GloverOTOUTCoach's Decision
Brandon CisseCBQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
TB · 11
Sean TuckerRBOUTHamstring
David Sills VWROUTUndisclosed · IR
Jalen McMillanWROUTKnee
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays  |  with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Ayden GarnesCBOUTCoach's Decision
Josh HayesCBOUTKnee · IR
DeMonte CapehartDTOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah SimmonsDTOUTCoach's Decision
Billy SchrauthGOUTCoach's Decision
Mohamed KamaraLBOUTKnee · IR
Justin SkuleOTOUTOblique
Jacob ParrishCBQUESTIONABLEBack

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 3.4 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB Pass attackGB offense · TB defense OFF +17 GB +0.23 #3 TB #20 +0.07
GB Red zoneGB offense · TB defense OFF +16 GB 63% #16 TB #32 74%
TB Run gameGB offense · TB defense DEF +16 GB -0.01 #19 TB #3 -0.07
GB 3rd downGB offense · TB defense OFF +11 GB 49% #2 TB #13 40%
GB Pass pro vs rushGB offense · TB defense LINE +10 GB 1.7 #7 TB #17 2.2 Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #11
TB Run block vs frontGB offense · TB defense FRONT +10 GB 120 #15 TB #5 99
GB Pass yardsGB offense · TB defense OFF +9 GB 226 #18 TB #27 255
GB Pass yardsTB offense · GB defense DEF +9 TB 221 #19 GB #10 207
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
TB Run gameTB offense · GB defense OFF +5 TB +0.01 #12 GB #17 -0.02
GB Run block vs frontTB offense · GB defense FRONT +4 TB 115 #21 GB #17 118
TB 3rd downTB offense · GB defense OFF +3 TB 42% #13 GB #16 41%
TB Pass pro vs rushTB offense · GB defense LINE +3 TB 2.2 #17 GB #20 2.1 Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
GB Red zoneTB offense · GB defense DEF +2 TB 62% #19 GB #17 64%
TB Pass attackTB offense · GB defense OFF +1 TB -0.03 #22 GB #23 +0.08

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

TB DEFENSE GB OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 48% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units GB offense against what it runs into

GB OFFENSE 2025 TB DEFENSE
+0.23 #3 Pass attack OFF +17 #20 +0.07
-0.01 #19 Run game DEF +16 #3 -0.07
226 #18 Pass yards OFF +9 #27 255
120 #15 Rush yards DEF +10 #5 99
1.7 #7 Pass pro vs rush OFF +11 #18 2.2
49% #2 3rd down OFF +11 #13 40%
63% #16 Red zone OFF +16 #32 74%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

GBpass pro line +10 TBpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk#11
Yaya Diaby LB 7.0 sk#43
Vita Vea DT 4.5 sk#83
1.7 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
GBrun block front +10 TBrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele
Calijah Kancey LDE 1.0 tfl#619
Vita Vea NT 7.0 tfl#103
A'Shawn Robinson RDE 3.0 tfl#314
Rueben Bain Jr. WLB
Alex Anzalone LILB 4.0 tfl#254
120 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#5 99