no sides on this game yet · the record
GB Josh Jacobs RB out · J. Michael Sturdivant WR out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III
TB win probability
ours 50%
book 47%
33%
63%
book is 3 pts lower
projected GB 23 – TB 23 · TB -0.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
TB +1.5
TB −0.1
4/10
—at the line
| book | TB | GB |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.8%
ours 50.2%
3/10
TB+3.4 pts vs book
| book | TB | GB |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
GB · 11
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OUT | Personal |
| J. Michael Sturdivant | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Savion Williams | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Josh Whyle | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Neck |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Anthony Campbell | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jordon Riley | DT | OUT | Achilles |
| Warren Brinson | DT | OUT | Calf |
| Aaron Banks | G | OUT | Knee |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | OUT | Achilles |
| Travis Glover | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Brandon Cisse | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
TB · 11
| Sean Tucker | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| David Sills V | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | OUT | Knee |
|
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays | with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
| |||
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ayden Garnes | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Josh Hayes | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| DeMonte Capehart | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Simmons | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Billy Schrauth | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Mohamed Kamara | LB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Justin Skule | OT | OUT | Oblique |
| Jacob Parrish | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Back |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 3.4 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB
Pass attackGB offense · TB defense
GB +0.23 #3
TB #20 +0.07
GB
Red zoneGB offense · TB defense
GB 63% #16
TB #32 74%
TB
Run gameGB offense · TB defense
GB -0.01 #19
TB #3 -0.07
GB
3rd downGB offense · TB defense
GB 49% #2
TB #13 40%
GB
Pass pro vs rushGB offense · TB defense
GB 1.7 #7
TB #17 2.2
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #11
TB
Run block vs frontGB offense · TB defense
GB 120 #15
TB #5 99
GB
Pass yardsGB offense · TB defense
GB 226 #18
TB #27 255
GB
Pass yardsTB offense · GB defense
TB 221 #19
GB #10 207
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
TB
Run gameTB offense · GB defense
TB +0.01 #12
GB #17 -0.02
GB
Run block vs frontTB offense · GB defense
TB 115 #21
GB #17 118
TB
3rd downTB offense · GB defense
TB 42% #13
GB #16 41%
TB
Pass pro vs rushTB offense · GB defense
TB 2.2 #17
GB #20 2.1
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
GB
Red zoneTB offense · GB defense
TB 62% #19
GB #17 64%
TB
Pass attackTB offense · GB defense
TB -0.03 #22
GB #23 +0.08
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units GB offense against what it runs into
GB OFFENSE
2025
TB DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +17
#20 +0.07
-0.01 #19
Run game
DEF +16
#3 -0.07
226 #18
Pass yards
OFF +9
#27 255
120 #15
Rush yards
DEF +10
#5 99
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +11
#18 2.2
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +11
#13 40%
63% #16
Red zone
OFF +16
#32 74%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
GBpass pro
line +10
TBpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sk#11
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sk#43
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sk#83
1.7 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
GBrun block
front +10
TBrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Calijah Kancey LDE
1.0 tfl#619
Vita Vea NT
7.0 tfl#103
A'Shawn Robinson RDE
3.0 tfl#314
Rueben Bain Jr. WLB
—
Alex Anzalone LILB
4.0 tfl#254
120 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#5 99
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TB offense against what it runs into
TB OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC GB DEFENSE
TB offence: Josh Grizzard called these → Zac Robinson calls it now.
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
even
#23 +0.08
+0.01 #12
Run game
even
#17 -0.02
221 #19
Pass yards
DEF +9
#10 207
115 #21
Rush yards
even
#18 118
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
even
#20 2.1
42% #13
3rd down
even
#16 41%
62% #19
Red zone
even
#17 64%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TBpass pro
even
GBpass rush
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sk#98
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sk#117
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.1
TBrun block
even
GBrun D
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Karl Brooks LDE
1.0 tfl#587
Javon Hargrave NT
4.0 tfl#230
Devonte Wyatt RDE
6.0 tfl#127
Lukas Van Ness WLB
3.0 tfl#339
Edgerrin Cooper LILB
4.0 tfl#253
115 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 118