Green Bay Packers
@
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
MODEL TB 52%
Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 13:00
· Raymond James Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: GB 1 – 1 TB
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
GB OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
TB OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
GB OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +17
#20 +0.07
-0.01 #19
Run game
DEF +16
#3 -0.07
226 #18
Pass yards
OFF +9
#27 255
120 #15
Rush yards
DEF +10
#5 99
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +11
#18 2.2
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +11
#13 40%
63% #15
Red zone
OFF +17
#32 74%
TB OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
even
#22 +0.08
+0.01 #12
Run game
even
#17 -0.02
221 #19
Pass yards
DEF +9
#10 207
115 #21
Rush yards
even
#18 118
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
even
#19 2.1
42% #13
3rd down
even
#16 41%
62% #19
Red zone
even
#17 64%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
GB PASS RUSH
vs
TB PASS PRO
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sacks '25
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sacks '25
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sacks '25
2.2 #16
sacks allowed /g
#18 2.1
TB PASS RUSH
vs
GB PASS PRO
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sacks '25
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sacks '25
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sacks '25
1.7 #7
sacks allowed /g
#19 2.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
GB
Jordan Love QB
vs #20 PASS D
231.5 pass y/g 6/10
Josh Jacobs RB
vs #3 RUN D
61.5 rush y/g 5/10
Christian Watson WR1
vs #20 PASS D
58.8 rec y/g 3/10
Jayden Reed WR2
vs #20 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 3/6
Matthew Golden WR3
vs #20 PASS D
29.7 rec y/g 3/10
Tucker Kraft TE
vs #20 PASS D
61.1 rec y/g 2/8
TB
Baker Mayfield QB
vs #22 PASS D
217.2 pass y/g 3/10
Bucky Irving RB
vs #17 RUN D
58.8 rush y/g 7/10
Emeka Egbuka WR1
vs #22 PASS D
55.2 rec y/g 2/10
Chris Godwin Jr. WR2
vs #22 PASS D
40.0 rec y/g 3/9
Jalen McMillan WR3
vs #22 PASS D
44.5 rec y/g 1/4
Cade Otton TE
vs #22 PASS D
38.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.