no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Brian Thomas Jr. WR q → Parker Washington
CIN win probability
ours 46%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected JAX 26 – CIN 25 · JAX -1.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CIN -2.75
CIN +1.3
4/10
—at the line
| book | CIN | JAC |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
51.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
8 designations · as of 8:00 PM
JAX · 5
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
|
Next up: Parker Washington WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 53 yds · 61% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Jr.: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 50 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
JAX without him, 3 games last season: 42% pass · 31.7 pts · 59 plays | with him (14): 56% pass · 24.2 pts · 62 plays
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Sam Mustipher | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Zach Durfee | DE | OUT | Upper Body · IR |
| Patrick Mekari | G | OUT | Back · IR |
| B.J. Green II | DE | QUESTIONABLE | Elbow |
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ja'Sir Taylor | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Shemar Stewart | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Brian Parker II | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX
Run block vs frontCIN offense · JAX defense
CIN 95 #29
JAX #1 86
CIN
Red zoneCIN offense · JAX defense
CIN 76% #1
JAX #25 68%
JAX
Pass attackCIN offense · JAX defense
CIN -0.03 #23
JAX #3 -0.14
JAX
Pass attackJAX offense · CIN defense
JAX +0.06 #11
CIN #28 +0.16
JAX
Pass yardsJAX offense · CIN defense
JAX 237 #11
CIN #25 246
JAX
Red zoneJAX offense · CIN defense
JAX 65% #12
CIN #26 69%
JAX
Run block vs frontJAX offense · CIN defense
JAX 116 #17
CIN #30 139
CIN
3rd downCIN offense · JAX defense
CIN 44% #5
JAX #17 41%
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
CIN
Pass yardsCIN offense · JAX defense
CIN 250 #7
JAX #19 231
JAX
Run gameJAX offense · CIN defense
JAX -0.00 #17
CIN #29 +0.09
JAX
3rd downJAX offense · CIN defense
JAX 40% #18
CIN #27 44%
CIN
Run gameCIN offense · JAX defense
CIN +0.02 #8
JAX #13 -0.04
CIN
Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · CIN defense
JAX 2.2 #16
CIN #12 2.4
CIN
Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · JAX defense
CIN 1.9 #10
JAX #11 2.6
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units JAX offense against what it runs into
JAX OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CIN DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
OFF +17
#28 +0.16
-0.00 #17
Run game
OFF +12
#29 +0.09
237 #11
Pass yards
OFF +14
#25 246
115 #20
Rush yards
OFF +12
#32 147
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
even
#24 2.0
40% #18
3rd down
OFF +9
#27 44%
65% #12
Red zone
OFF +14
#26 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
JAXpass pro
even
CINpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sk#60
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sk#96
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sk#130
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.4
JAXrun block
line +13
CINrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Boye Mafe LDE
4.0 tfl#222
Dexter Lawrence II LDT
4.0 tfl#246
Jonathan Allen RDT
7.0 tfl#114
Myles Murphy RDE
6.0 tfl#127
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB
4.0 tfl#256
116 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 139
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CIN offense against what it runs into
CIN OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
JAX DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
DEF +20
#3 -0.14
+0.02 #8
Run game
even
#13 -0.04
250 #7
Pass yards
OFF +12
#19 231
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +28
#1 86
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +13
#27 1.9
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +12
#17 41%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +24
#25 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CINpass pro
even
JAXpass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Josh Hines-Allen DE
8.0 sk#27
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sk#65
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sk#118
1.9 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#11 2.6
CINrun block
front +28
JAXrun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Travon Walker LDE
8.0 tfl#85
Arik Armstead LDT
7.0 tfl#105
DaVon Hamilton RDT
3.0 tfl#305
Josh Hines-Allen RDE
12.0 tfl#20
Foyesade Oluokun WLB
5.0 tfl#178
95 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#1 86