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Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 13:00 · Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: JAX 0 – 3 CIN
no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Brian Thomas Jr. WR q → Parker Washington
CIN win probability
ours 46% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected JAX 26 – CIN 25 · JAX -1.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Bengalsspread · margin, last 10
CIN -2.75
CIN +1.3
4/10
at the line
bookCINJAC
DK
CZR
Bengalstotal · points in the game, last 10
51.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

8 designations · as of 8:00 PM
JAX · 5
Brian Thomas Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Next up: Parker Washington WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 53 yds · 61% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Jr.: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 50 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
JAX without him, 3 games last season: 42% pass · 31.7 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (14): 56% pass · 24.2 pts · 62 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Sam MustipherCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Zach DurfeeDEOUTUpper Body · IR
Patrick MekariGOUTBack · IR
B.J. Green IIDEQUESTIONABLEElbow
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Ja'Sir TaylorCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Shemar StewartDEOUTKnee
Brian Parker IIOTOUTUndisclosed · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX Run block vs frontCIN offense · JAX defense FRONT +28 CIN 95 #29 JAX #1 86
CIN Red zoneCIN offense · JAX defense OFF +24 CIN 76% #1 JAX #25 68%
JAX Pass attackCIN offense · JAX defense DEF +20 CIN -0.03 #23 JAX #3 -0.14
JAX Pass attackJAX offense · CIN defense OFF +17 JAX +0.06 #11 CIN #28 +0.16
JAX Pass yardsJAX offense · CIN defense OFF +14 JAX 237 #11 CIN #25 246
JAX Red zoneJAX offense · CIN defense OFF +14 JAX 65% #12 CIN #26 69%
JAX Run block vs frontJAX offense · CIN defense LINE +13 JAX 116 #17 CIN #30 139
CIN 3rd downCIN offense · JAX defense OFF +12 CIN 44% #5 JAX #17 41%
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
CIN Pass yardsCIN offense · JAX defense OFF +12 CIN 250 #7 JAX #19 231
JAX Run gameJAX offense · CIN defense OFF +12 JAX -0.00 #17 CIN #29 +0.09
JAX 3rd downJAX offense · CIN defense OFF +9 JAX 40% #18 CIN #27 44%
CIN Run gameCIN offense · JAX defense OFF +5 CIN +0.02 #8 JAX #13 -0.04
CIN Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · CIN defense RUSH +4 JAX 2.2 #16 CIN #12 2.4
CIN Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · JAX defense LINE +1 CIN 1.9 #10 JAX #11 2.6

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

CIN DEFENSE JAX OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units JAX offense against what it runs into

JAX OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CIN DEFENSE
+0.06 #11 Pass attack OFF +17 #28 +0.16
-0.00 #17 Run game OFF +12 #29 +0.09
237 #11 Pass yards OFF +14 #25 246
115 #20 Rush yards OFF +12 #32 147
2.4 #20 Pass pro vs rush even #24 2.0
40% #18 3rd down OFF +9 #27 44%
65% #12 Red zone OFF +14 #26 69%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

JAXpass pro even CINpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Myles Murphy DE 5.5 sk#60
B.J. Hill DE 4.0 sk#96
Jonathan Allen DE 3.5 sk#130
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.4
JAXrun block line +13 CINrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Boye Mafe LDE 4.0 tfl#222
Dexter Lawrence II LDT 4.0 tfl#246
Jonathan Allen RDT 7.0 tfl#114
Myles Murphy RDE 6.0 tfl#127
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB 4.0 tfl#256
116 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 139