Jacksonville Jaguars
@
Cincinnati Bengals
MODEL CIN 45%
Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 13:00
· Paycor Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: JAC 0 – 3 CIN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
JAC OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
CIN OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
JAC OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
OFF +17
#28 +0.16
-0.01 #18
Run game
OFF +11
#29 +0.09
237 #11
Pass yards
OFF +14
#25 246
115 #20
Rush yards
OFF +12
#32 147
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
even
#23 2.0
40% #18
3rd down
OFF +9
#27 44%
65% #12
Red zone
OFF +14
#26 69%
CIN OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
DEF +20
#3 -0.14
+0.02 #8
Run game
even
#13 -0.04
250 #7
Pass yards
OFF +12
#19 231
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +28
#1 86
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +13
#27 1.9
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +12
#17 41%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +24
#25 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
JAC PASS RUSH
vs
CIN PASS PRO
Josh Hines-Allen DE
9.0 sacks '25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sacks '25
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sacks '25
2.1 #14
sacks allowed /g
#23 1.9
CIN PASS RUSH
vs
JAC PASS PRO
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sacks '25
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sacks '25
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sacks '25
2.4 #20
sacks allowed /g
#27 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
JAC
Trevor Lawrence QB
vs #28 PASS D
234.1 pass y/g 6/10
Bhayshul Tuten RB
vs #29 RUN D
22.4 rush y/g 4/10
Brian Thomas Jr. WR1
vs #28 PASS D
48.5 rec y/g 5/10
Jakobi Meyers WR2
vs #28 PASS D
49.8 rec y/g 4/10
Parker Washington WR3
vs #28 PASS D
56.1 rec y/g 6/10
Brenton Strange TE
vs #28 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
CIN
Joe Burrow QB
vs #3 PASS D
226.1 pass y/g 5/8
Chase Brown RB
vs #13 RUN D
59.9 rush y/g 7/10
Ja'Marr Chase WR1
vs #3 PASS D
88.2 rec y/g 7/10
Tee Higgins WR2
vs #3 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 7/10
Andrei Iosivas WR3
vs #3 PASS D
29.0 rec y/g 4/10
Mike Gesicki TE
vs #3 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.