Denver Broncos
@
San Francisco 49ers
MODEL SF 56%
Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 16:25
· Levi's Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: DEN 1 – 0 SF
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DEN OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
SF OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DEN OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
OFF +16
#25 +0.11
+0.00 #16
Run game
even
#22 +0.01
231 #17
Pass yards
even
#23 242
119 #16
Rush yards
even
#11 108
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +31
#32 1.2
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +11
#20 41%
63% #16
Red zone
even
#14 62%
SF OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
even
#6 -0.12
-0.00 #17
Run game
even
#10 -0.04
254 #6
Pass yards
even
#11 212
107 #24
Rush yards
DEF +22
#2 91
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
even
#1 4.0
51% #1
3rd down
even
#2 34%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#1 48%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DEN PASS RUSH
vs
SF PASS PRO
Nik Bonitto LB
15.0 sacks '25
Jonathon Cooper LB
9.0 sacks '25
Zach Allen DE
8.5 sacks '25
1.6 #5
sacks allowed /g
#32 4.0
SF PASS RUSH
vs
DEN PASS PRO
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sacks '25
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sacks '25
Keion White DE
2.5 sacks '25
1.4 #1
sacks allowed /g
#1 1.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DEN
Bo Nix QB
vs #25 PASS D
233.9 pass y/g 5/10
J.K. Dobbins RB
vs #22 RUN D
77.2 rush y/g 5/10
Courtland Sutton WR1
vs #25 PASS D
57.2 rec y/g 5/10
Jaylen Waddle WR2
2025: MIA
vs #25 PASS D
56.9 rec y/g 4/10
Troy Franklin WR3
vs #25 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 4/10
Evan Engram TE
vs #25 PASS D
27.1 rec y/g 4/10
SF
Brock Purdy QB
vs #6 PASS D
233.5 pass y/g 5/10
Christian McCaffrey RB
vs #10 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 5/10
Mike Evans WR1
2025: TB
vs #6 PASS D
46.0 rec y/g 3/8
Ricky Pearsall WR2
vs #6 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 5/10
Christian Kirk WR3
2025: HOU
vs #6 PASS D
31.0 rec y/g 3/10
George Kittle TE
vs #6 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.