BallKnowMe
More
NFL
9–6 · 60% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups
Week 4 · 2026-10-04 · 16:25 · Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: DEN 1 – 0 SF
no sides on this game yet · the record
DEN Sam Ehlinger QB out · Tyler Badie RB out · Caleb Lohner TE out · Dallen Bentley TE out    SF De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q
SF win probability
ours 60% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DEN 21 – SF 24 · SF -3.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
49ersspread · margin, last 10
SF -2.75
SF −3.4
8/10
at the line
bookSFDEN
DK
CZR
49erstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

14 designations · as of 8:00 PM
DEN · 11
Sam EhlingerQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler BadieRBOUTCoach's Decision
Caleb LohnerTEOUTLower Body · IR
Dallen BentleyTEOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Jordan JacksonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler OnyedimDTOUTCoach's Decision
Nick GargiuloGOUTKnee - ACL
Jonathon CooperLBOUTPersonal
Levelle BaileyLBOUTLeg · IR
Frank CrumOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kage CaseyOTOUTCoach's Decision
SF · 3
De'Zhaun StriblingWRDOUBTFULAnkle
Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Jake TongesTEQUESTIONABLEKnee
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Alfred CollinsDTOUTKnee · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · SF defense LINE +29 DEN 1.4 #3 SF #32 0.9
DEN Run block vs frontSF offense · DEN defense FRONT +18 SF 114 #20 DEN #2 91
DEN Pass attackDEN offense · SF defense OFF +16 DEN +0.08 #9 SF #25 +0.11
DEN 3rd downDEN offense · SF defense OFF +11 DEN 43% #9 SF #20 41%
DEN Run gameSF offense · DEN defense DEF +8 SF -0.00 #18 DEN #10 -0.04
DEN Red zoneSF offense · DEN defense DEF +7 SF 68% #8 DEN #1 48%
DEN Pass yardsDEN offense · SF defense OFF +6 DEN 231 #17 SF #23 242
DEN Run gameDEN offense · SF defense OFF +6 DEN +0.00 #16 SF #22 +0.01
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
SF Pass yardsSF offense · DEN defense OFF +5 SF 254 #6 DEN #11 212
SF Run block vs frontDEN offense · SF defense FRONT +4 DEN 119 #14 SF #10 110
SF 3rd downSF offense · DEN defense OFF +1 SF 51% #1 DEN #2 34%
DEN Pass attackSF offense · DEN defense DEF +1 SF +0.16 #7 DEN #6 -0.12
DEN Pass pro vs rushSF offense · DEN defense RUSH +1 SF 1.3 #2 DEN #1 4.0 Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
SF Red zoneDEN offense · SF defense DEF +1 DEN 63% #15 SF #14 62%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

SF DEFENSE DEN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DEN offense against what it runs into

DEN OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC SF DEFENSE

DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.

+0.08 #9 Pass attack OFF +16 #25 +0.11
+0.00 #16 Run game even #22 +0.01
231 #17 Pass yards even #23 242
119 #16 Rush yards even #11 108
1.4 #1 Pass pro vs rush OFF +31 #32 1.2
43% #9 3rd down OFF +11 #20 41%
63% #15 Red zone even #14 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DENpass pro line +29 SFpass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Osa Odighizuwa DT 3.5 sk#129
Sam Okuayinonu DT 3.0 sk#147
Keion White DE 1.5 sk#251
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
DENrun block even SFrun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Keion White LDE 2.0 tfl#385
Osa Odighizuwa LDT 6.0 tfl#151
Gracen Halton RDT
Nick Bosa RDE 4.0 tfl#220
Dre Greenlaw WLB 2.0 tfl#379
119 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 110