no sides on this game yet · the record
DEN Sam Ehlinger QB out · Tyler Badie RB out · Caleb Lohner TE out · Dallen Bentley TE out SF De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q
SF win probability
ours 60%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DEN 21 – SF 24 · SF -3.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
SF -2.75
SF −3.4
8/10
—at the line
| book | SF | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
14 designations · as of 8:00 PM
DEN · 11
| Sam Ehlinger | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Badie | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Caleb Lohner | TE | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Dallen Bentley | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jordan Jackson | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Onyedim | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Nick Gargiulo | G | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jonathon Cooper | LB | OUT | Personal |
| Levelle Bailey | LB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Frank Crum | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kage Casey | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
SF · 3
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | DOUBTFUL | Ankle |
| Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g) | |||
| Jake Tonges | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Alfred Collins | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN
Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · SF defense
DEN 1.4 #3
SF #32 0.9
DEN
Run block vs frontSF offense · DEN defense
SF 114 #20
DEN #2 91
DEN
Pass attackDEN offense · SF defense
DEN +0.08 #9
SF #25 +0.11
DEN
3rd downDEN offense · SF defense
DEN 43% #9
SF #20 41%
DEN
Run gameSF offense · DEN defense
SF -0.00 #18
DEN #10 -0.04
DEN
Red zoneSF offense · DEN defense
SF 68% #8
DEN #1 48%
DEN
Pass yardsDEN offense · SF defense
DEN 231 #17
SF #23 242
DEN
Run gameDEN offense · SF defense
DEN +0.00 #16
SF #22 +0.01
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
SF
Pass yardsSF offense · DEN defense
SF 254 #6
DEN #11 212
SF
Run block vs frontDEN offense · SF defense
DEN 119 #14
SF #10 110
SF
3rd downSF offense · DEN defense
SF 51% #1
DEN #2 34%
DEN
Pass attackSF offense · DEN defense
SF +0.16 #7
DEN #6 -0.12
DEN
Pass pro vs rushSF offense · DEN defense
SF 1.3 #2
DEN #1 4.0
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
SF
Red zoneDEN offense · SF defense
DEN 63% #15
SF #14 62%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DEN offense against what it runs into
DEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC SF DEFENSE
DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
OFF +16
#25 +0.11
+0.00 #16
Run game
even
#22 +0.01
231 #17
Pass yards
even
#23 242
119 #16
Rush yards
even
#11 108
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +31
#32 1.2
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +11
#20 41%
63% #15
Red zone
even
#14 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DENpass pro
line +29
SFpass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sk#129
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sk#147
Keion White DE
1.5 sk#251
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
DENrun block
even
SFrun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Keion White LDE
2.0 tfl#385
Osa Odighizuwa LDT
6.0 tfl#151
Gracen Halton RDT
—
Nick Bosa RDE
4.0 tfl#220
Dre Greenlaw WLB
2.0 tfl#379
119 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 110
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SF offense against what it runs into
SF OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
DEN DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
even
#6 -0.12
-0.00 #18
Run game
DEF +8
#10 -0.04
254 #6
Pass yards
even
#11 212
107 #24
Rush yards
DEF +22
#2 91
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
even
#1 4.0
51% #1
3rd down
even
#2 34%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#1 48%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SFpass pro
even
DENpass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Nik Bonitto LB
14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB
8.0 sk#28
Zach Allen DE
7.0 sk#40
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
SFrun block
front +18
DENrun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Zach Allen LDE
4.0 tfl#247
D.J. Jones NT
4.0 tfl#245
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE
5.0 tfl#201
Jonah Elliss WLB
5.0 tfl#185
Alex Singleton LILB
3.0 tfl#279
114 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91