Houston Texans
@
Philadelphia Eagles
MODEL PHI 52%
Week 16 · 2026-12-24 · 20:15
· Lincoln Financial Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 0 – 1 PHI
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
HOU OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
PHI OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
HOU OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
DEF +10
#5 -0.12
-0.08 #30
Run game
DEF +14
#16 -0.02
233 #14
Pass yards
DEF +8
#6 204
109 #22
Rush yards
even
#22 124
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
even
#12 2.5
38% #24
3rd down
even
#22 42%
51% #31
Red zone
DEF +21
#10 59%
PHI OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
DEF +12
#1 -0.19
+0.01 #14
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
206 #23
Pass yards
DEF +16
#7 205
117 #18
Rush yards
DEF +14
#4 94
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
even
#7 2.8
38% #21
3rd down
DEF +14
#7 37%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +14
#16 63%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
HOU PASS RUSH
vs
PHI PASS PRO
Danielle Hunter DE
18.0 sacks '25
Will Anderson Jr. DE
15.5 sacks '25
Sheldon Rankins DT
4.5 sacks '25
2.1 #12
sacks allowed /g
#12 2.8
PHI PASS RUSH
vs
HOU PASS PRO
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sacks '25
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sacks '25
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sacks '25
1.8 #9
sacks allowed /g
#7 2.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
HOU
C.J. Stroud QB
vs #5 PASS D
218.9 pass y/g 5/10
David Montgomery RB
2025: DET
vs #16 RUN D
42.1 rush y/g 2/10
Nico Collins WR1
vs #5 PASS D
71.1 rec y/g 6/10
Jayden Higgins WR2
vs #5 PASS D
32.8 rec y/g 7/10
Jaylin Noel WR3
vs #5 PASS D
15.4 rec y/g 1/10
Dalton Schultz TE
vs #5 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 5/10
PHI
Jalen Hurts QB
vs #1 PASS D
199.5 pass y/g 3/10
Saquon Barkley RB
vs #8 RUN D
73.3 rush y/g 6/10
DeVonta Smith WR1
vs #1 PASS D
59.9 rec y/g 3/10
Makai Lemon WR2
vs #1 PASS D
— rec y/g
Dontayvion Wicks WR3
2025: GB
vs #1 PASS D
25.5 rec y/g 3/10
Dallas Goedert TE
vs #1 PASS D
39.0 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.