no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out · Brevin Jordan TE out PHI Cole Payton QB out · Tanner McKee QB out · Elijah Moore WR out · Johnny Wilson WR out · Eli Stowers TE out · Grant Calcaterra TE out
PHI win probability
ours 54%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected HOU 20 – PHI 21 · PHI -1.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
PHI -2.5
PHI −1.2
4/9
—at the line
| book | PHI | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| FD | ||
| DK | ||
| SCORE |
38.5opened 38
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
24 designations · as of 11:45 PM
HOU · 13
| Jayden Higgins | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Tank Dell | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL + MCL · IR |
| Brevin Jordan | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
10 more · line, defense, specialists
| Collin Wright | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jaden Crumedy | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kayden McDonald | DT | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Febechi Nwaiwu | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Sam Hagen | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Aiden Fisher | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Braden Smith | OT | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Nate Thomas | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Henry To'oTo'o | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
| Jake Hummel | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Abdomen |
PHI · 11
| Cole Payton | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tanner McKee | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Moore | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Johnny Wilson | WR | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Eli Stowers | TE | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
| Grant Calcaterra | TE | OUT | Back · IR |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jakorian Bennett | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Micah Morris | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jonathan Greenard | LB | OUT | Pectoral |
| Andre' Sam | S | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Marcus Epps | S | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PHI
Red zoneHOU offense · PHI defense
HOU 51% #31
PHI #10 59%
HOU
Pass yardsPHI offense · HOU defense
PHI 206 #23
HOU #7 205
HOU
Run block vs frontPHI offense · HOU defense
PHI 117 #18
HOU #3 94
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #4Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #8
HOU
3rd downPHI offense · HOU defense
PHI 38% #21
HOU #7 37%
PHI
Red zonePHI offense · HOU defense
PHI 74% #2
HOU #16 63%
PHI
Run gameHOU offense · PHI defense
HOU -0.08 #30
PHI #16 -0.02
HOU
Pass attackPHI offense · HOU defense
PHI +0.04 #13
HOU #1 -0.19
PHI
Pass attackHOU offense · PHI defense
HOU +0.04 #15
PHI #5 -0.12
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
PHI
Pass yardsHOU offense · PHI defense
HOU 233 #14
PHI #6 204
HOU
Run gamePHI offense · HOU defense
PHI +0.01 #14
HOU #8 -0.05
HOU
Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · HOU defense
PHI 2.1 #12
HOU #8 2.8
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #9
PHI
3rd downHOU offense · PHI defense
HOU 38% #24
PHI #22 42%
HOU
Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · PHI defense
HOU 1.8 #10
PHI #11 2.5
PHI
Run block vs frontHOU offense · PHI defense
HOU 109 #23
PHI #22 124
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units HOU offense against what it runs into
HOU OFFENSE
2025
PHI DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
DEF +10
#5 -0.12
-0.08 #30
Run game
DEF +14
#16 -0.02
233 #14
Pass yards
DEF +8
#6 204
109 #22
Rush yards
even
#22 124
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
even
#12 2.5
38% #24
3rd down
even
#22 42%
51% #31
Red zone
DEF +21
#10 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
HOUpass pro
even
PHIpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sk#46
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sk#56
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sk#87
1.8 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#11 2.5
HOUrun block
even
PHIrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Jalen Carter LDE
5.0 tfl#170
Moro Ojomo RDE
6.0 tfl#137
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB
1.0 tfl#636
Zack Baun LILB
7.0 tfl#110
Jihaad Campbell RILB
2.0 tfl#382
109 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 124
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PHI offense against what it runs into
PHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
HOU DEFENSE
PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
DEF +12
#1 -0.19
+0.01 #14
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
206 #23
Pass yards
DEF +16
#7 205
117 #18
Rush yards
DEF +14
#4 94
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
even
#7 2.8
38% #21
3rd down
DEF +14
#7 37%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +14
#16 63%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PHIpass pro
even
HOUpass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Danielle Hunter DE
15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE
12.0 sk#9
Jadeveon Clowney OLB
8.5 sk#23
2.1 #12sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.8
PHIrun block
front +15
HOUrun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Will Anderson Jr. LDE
20.0 tfl#4
Tommy Togiai LDT
6.0 tfl#150
Sheldon Rankins RDT
5.0 tfl#184
Danielle Hunter RDE
15.0 tfl#8
Henry To'oTo'o WLB
9.0 tfl#53
117 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 94