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Week 16 · 2026-12-24 · 20:15 · Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 0 – 1 PHI
no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out · Brevin Jordan TE out    PHI Cole Payton QB out · Tanner McKee QB out · Elijah Moore WR out · Johnny Wilson WR out · Eli Stowers TE out · Grant Calcaterra TE out
PHI win probability
ours 54% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected HOU 20 – PHI 21 · PHI -1.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Eaglesspread · margin, last 10
PHI -2.5
PHI −1.2
4/9
at the line
bookPHIHOU
CZR
FD
DK
SCORE
Eaglestotal · points in the game, last 10
38.5opened 38
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
FD
SCORE
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

24 designations · as of 11:45 PM
HOU · 13
Jayden HigginsWROUTKnee - ACL · IR
Tank DellWROUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
Brevin JordanTEOUTCoach's Decision
10 more · line, defense, specialists
Collin WrightCBOUTCoach's Decision
Jaden CrumedyDTOUTCoach's Decision
Kayden McDonaldDTOUTAnkle · IR
Febechi NwaiwuGOUTCoach's Decision
Sam HagenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Aiden FisherLBOUTCoach's Decision
Braden SmithOTOUTFoot · IR
Nate ThomasOTOUTCoach's Decision
Henry To'oTo'oLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Jake HummelLBQUESTIONABLEAbdomen
PHI · 11
Cole PaytonQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tanner McKeeQBOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah MooreWROUTCoach's Decision
Johnny WilsonWROUTKnee · IR
Eli StowersTEOUTHamstring · IR
Grant CalcaterraTEOUTBack · IR
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Jakorian BennettCBOUTKnee · IR
Micah MorrisGOUTCoach's Decision
Jonathan GreenardLBOUTPectoral
Andre' SamSOUTFoot · IR
Marcus EppsSQUESTIONABLEShoulder

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PHI Red zoneHOU offense · PHI defense DEF +21 HOU 51% #31 PHI #10 59%
HOU Pass yardsPHI offense · HOU defense DEF +16 PHI 206 #23 HOU #7 205
HOU Run block vs frontPHI offense · HOU defense FRONT +15 PHI 117 #18 HOU #3 94 Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #4Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #8
HOU 3rd downPHI offense · HOU defense DEF +14 PHI 38% #21 HOU #7 37%
PHI Red zonePHI offense · HOU defense OFF +14 PHI 74% #2 HOU #16 63%
PHI Run gameHOU offense · PHI defense DEF +14 HOU -0.08 #30 PHI #16 -0.02
HOU Pass attackPHI offense · HOU defense DEF +12 PHI +0.04 #13 HOU #1 -0.19
PHI Pass attackHOU offense · PHI defense DEF +10 HOU +0.04 #15 PHI #5 -0.12
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
PHI Pass yardsHOU offense · PHI defense DEF +8 HOU 233 #14 PHI #6 204
HOU Run gamePHI offense · HOU defense DEF +6 PHI +0.01 #14 HOU #8 -0.05
HOU Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · HOU defense RUSH +4 PHI 2.1 #12 HOU #8 2.8 Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #9
PHI 3rd downHOU offense · PHI defense DEF +2 HOU 38% #24 PHI #22 42%
HOU Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · PHI defense LINE +1 HOU 1.8 #10 PHI #11 2.5
PHI Run block vs frontHOU offense · PHI defense FRONT +1 HOU 109 #23 PHI #22 124

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

PHI DEFENSE HOU OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units HOU offense against what it runs into

HOU OFFENSE 2025 PHI DEFENSE
+0.04 #15 Pass attack DEF +10 #5 -0.12
-0.08 #30 Run game DEF +14 #16 -0.02
233 #14 Pass yards DEF +8 #6 204
109 #22 Rush yards even #22 124
1.8 #10 Pass pro vs rush even #12 2.5
38% #24 3rd down even #22 42%
51% #31 Red zone DEF +21 #10 59%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

HOUpass pro even PHIpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Jalyx Hunt LB 6.5 sk#46
Moro Ojomo DT 6.0 sk#56
Jordan Davis DT 4.5 sk#87
1.8 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#11 2.5
HOUrun block even PHIrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Jalen Carter LDE 5.0 tfl#170
Moro Ojomo RDE 6.0 tfl#137
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB 1.0 tfl#636
Zack Baun LILB 7.0 tfl#110
Jihaad Campbell RILB 2.0 tfl#382
109 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 124