New England Patriots
@
New York Jets
DIV
MODEL NYJ 35%
Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 13:00
· MetLife Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: NE 8 – 2 NYJ
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NE OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NE OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
OFF +31
#32 +0.25
+0.01 #13
Run game
OFF +13
#26 +0.03
262 #4
Pass yards
OFF +12
#16 226
129 #6
Rush yards
OFF +23
#29 139
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
even
#31 1.5
44% #6
3rd down
even
#12 39%
66% #9
Red zone
OFF +20
#29 70%
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
DEF +17
#11 -0.06
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +14
#15 -0.03
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +23
#9 207
123 #10
Rush yards
even
#6 102
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
even
#25 2.0
35% #27
3rd down
DEF +16
#11 39%
53% #29
Red zone
even
#27 69%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NE PASS RUSH
vs
NYJ PASS PRO
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sacks '25
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
Milton Williams DT
6.5 sacks '25
3.5 #29
sacks allowed /g
#31 2.0
NYJ PASS RUSH
vs
NE PASS PRO
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sacks '25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sacks '25
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sacks '25
2.8 #24
sacks allowed /g
#25 1.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NE
Drake Maye QB
vs #32 PASS D
248.7 pass y/g 6/10
Rhamondre Stevenson RB
vs #26 RUN D
45.6 rush y/g 7/10
A.J. Brown WR1
2025: PHI
vs #32 PASS D
64.2 rec y/g 6/10
Romeo Doubs WR2
2025: GB
vs #32 PASS D
49.9 rec y/g 5/10
Kayshon Boutte WR3
vs #32 PASS D
39.9 rec y/g 2/10
Hunter Henry TE
vs #32 PASS D
41.9 rec y/g 5/10
NYJ
Geno Smith QB
2025: LV
vs #11 PASS D
201.7 pass y/g 3/10
Breece Hall RB
vs #15 RUN D
66.6 rush y/g 4/10
Garrett Wilson WR1
vs #11 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 4/7
Adonai Mitchell WR2
vs #11 PASS D
28.3 rec y/g 4/10
Omar Cooper Jr. WR3
vs #11 PASS D
— rec y/g
Kenyon Sadiq TE
vs #11 PASS D
— rec y/g
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.