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New England Patriots @ New York Jets ★ DIV · AFC EAST ★

Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 13:00 · MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NE 8 – 2 NYJ
no sides on this game yet · the record
NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out    NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams
NYJ win probability
ours 34% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NE 25 – NYJ 20 · NE -5.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Jetsspread · margin, last 10
NYJ +6.25
NYJ +5.3
3/10
at the line
bookNYJNE
DK
CZR
Jetstotal · points in the game, last 10
40.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

13 designations · as of 11:45 PM
NE · 4
TreVeyon HendersonRBOUTAnkle
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
A.J. BrownWROUTAnkle · IR
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Ben BrownCOUTKnee
Brenden SchoolerSOUTUndisclosed
NYJ · 9
Kene NwangwuRBOUTBack
Tim PatrickWROUTGroin · IR
Omar Cooper Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
6 more · line, defense, specialists
D'Angelo PondsCBOUTCalf
Tre BrownCBOUTFinger · IR
Joseph OssaiDEOUTFoot
Kingsley JonathanDEOUTThigh · IR
VJ PayneSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Minkah FitzpatrickSQUESTIONABLEGroin

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE Pass attackNE offense · NYJ defense OFF +31 NE +0.29 #1 NYJ #32 +0.25
NE Pass yardsNYJ offense · NE defense DEF +23 NYJ 164 #32 NE #9 207
NE Red zoneNE offense · NYJ defense OFF +20 NE 66% #9 NYJ #29 70%
NE Run block vs frontNE offense · NYJ defense LINE +18 NE 127 #6 NYJ #24 129
NE Pass attackNYJ offense · NE defense DEF +17 NYJ -0.18 #28 NE #11 -0.06
NE 3rd downNYJ offense · NE defense DEF +16 NYJ 35% #27 NE #11 39%
NE Run gameNYJ offense · NE defense DEF +14 NYJ -0.06 #29 NE #15 -0.03
NE Run gameNE offense · NYJ defense OFF +13 NE +0.01 #13 NYJ #26 +0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
NE Pass yardsNE offense · NYJ defense OFF +12 NE 262 #4 NYJ #16 226
NE 3rd downNE offense · NYJ defense OFF +6 NE 44% #6 NYJ #12 39%
NE Pass pro vs rushNE offense · NYJ defense LINE +3 NE 2.9 #24 NYJ #27 1.9
NE Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · NE defense RUSH +3 NYJ 3.0 #25 NE #22 2.0
NE Red zoneNYJ offense · NE defense DEF +2 NYJ 53% #29 NE #27 69%
NE Run block vs frontNYJ offense · NE defense FRONT +1 NYJ 126 #7 NE #6 101

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

NYJ DEFENSE NE OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 46% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NE offense against what it runs into

NE OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE

NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.

+0.29 #1 Pass attack OFF +31 #32 +0.25
+0.01 #13 Run game OFF +13 #26 +0.03
262 #4 Pass yards OFF +12 #16 226
129 #6 Rush yards OFF +23 #29 139
2.8 #24 Pass pro vs rush even #31 1.5
44% #6 3rd down even #12 39%
66% #9 Red zone OFF +20 #29 70%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NEpass pro even NYJpass rush
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Will McDonald IV DE 8.0 sk#28
Joseph Ossai DE 5.0 sk#67
Jowon Briggs DE 4.0 sk#104
2.9 #24sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#27 1.9
NErun block line +18 NYJrun D
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Kingsley Enagbare LDE 6.0 tfl#142
T'Vondre Sweat LDT 4.0 tfl#272
Harrison Phillips RDT 5.0 tfl#167
Will McDonald IV RDE 10.0 tfl#45
Demario Davis WLB 6.0 tfl#125
127 #6rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#24 129