no sides on this game yet · the record
NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams
NYJ win probability
ours 34%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NE 25 – NYJ 20 · NE -5.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NYJ +6.25
NYJ +5.3
3/10
—at the line
| book | NYJ | NE |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
40.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
13 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NE · 4
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | OUT | Ankle |
|
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
| A.J. Brown | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ben Brown | C | OUT | Knee |
| Brenden Schooler | S | OUT | Undisclosed |
NYJ · 9
| Kene Nwangwu | RB | OUT | Back |
| Tim Patrick | WR | OUT | Groin · IR |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
| Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g) | |||
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| D'Angelo Ponds | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Tre Brown | CB | OUT | Finger · IR |
| Joseph Ossai | DE | OUT | Foot |
| Kingsley Jonathan | DE | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| VJ Payne | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE
Pass attackNE offense · NYJ defense
NE +0.29 #1
NYJ #32 +0.25
NE
Pass yardsNYJ offense · NE defense
NYJ 164 #32
NE #9 207
NE
Red zoneNE offense · NYJ defense
NE 66% #9
NYJ #29 70%
NE
Run block vs frontNE offense · NYJ defense
NE 127 #6
NYJ #24 129
NE
Pass attackNYJ offense · NE defense
NYJ -0.18 #28
NE #11 -0.06
NE
3rd downNYJ offense · NE defense
NYJ 35% #27
NE #11 39%
NE
Run gameNYJ offense · NE defense
NYJ -0.06 #29
NE #15 -0.03
NE
Run gameNE offense · NYJ defense
NE +0.01 #13
NYJ #26 +0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
NE
Pass yardsNE offense · NYJ defense
NE 262 #4
NYJ #16 226
NE
3rd downNE offense · NYJ defense
NE 44% #6
NYJ #12 39%
NE
Pass pro vs rushNE offense · NYJ defense
NE 2.9 #24
NYJ #27 1.9
NE
Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · NE defense
NYJ 3.0 #25
NE #22 2.0
NE
Red zoneNYJ offense · NE defense
NYJ 53% #29
NE #27 69%
NE
Run block vs frontNYJ offense · NE defense
NYJ 126 #7
NE #6 101
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NE offense against what it runs into
NE OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE
NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
OFF +31
#32 +0.25
+0.01 #13
Run game
OFF +13
#26 +0.03
262 #4
Pass yards
OFF +12
#16 226
129 #6
Rush yards
OFF +23
#29 139
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
even
#31 1.5
44% #6
3rd down
even
#12 39%
66% #9
Red zone
OFF +20
#29 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NEpass pro
even
NYJpass rush
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sk#25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sk#73
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sk#99
2.9 #24sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#27 1.9
NErun block
line +18
NYJrun D
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Kingsley Enagbare LDE
6.0 tfl#146
T'Vondre Sweat LDT
4.0 tfl#218
Harrison Phillips RDT
5.0 tfl#208
Will McDonald IV RDE
10.0 tfl#50
Demario Davis WLB
6.0 tfl#126
127 #6rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#24 129
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYJ offense against what it runs into
NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NE DEFENSE
NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
DEF +17
#11 -0.06
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +14
#15 -0.03
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +23
#9 207
123 #10
Rush yards
even
#6 102
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
even
#23 2.0
35% #27
3rd down
DEF +16
#11 39%
53% #29
Red zone
even
#27 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYJpass pro
even
NEpass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sk#23
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sk#38
Milton Williams DT
3.5 sk#117
3.0 #25sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#22 2.0
NYJrun block
even
NErun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Christian Barmore LDE
4.0 tfl#222
Cory Durden NT
5.0 tfl#175
Milton Williams RDE
8.0 tfl#67
Elijah Ponder WLB
4.0 tfl#255
Christian Elliss LILB
—
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#6 101