no sides on this game yet · the record
CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette
PIT win probability
ours 69%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CAR 19 – PIT 26 · PIT -6.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
PIT -3.5
PIT −6.4
5/10
—at the line
| book | PIT | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
41.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
6 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CAR · 2
| Jalen Coker | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
|
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays | with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
| |||
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Patrick Jones II | LB | OUT | Back |
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Donte Kent | CB | OUT | Undisclosed |
| Joey Porter Jr. | CB | OUT | Back |
| Jack Driscoll | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| DeShon Elliott | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PIT
Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · CAR defense
PIT 1.9 #8
CAR #29 1.8
PIT
3rd downPIT offense · CAR defense
PIT 41% #14
CAR #32 48%
PIT
Red zoneCAR offense · PIT defense
CAR 59% #24
PIT #9 58%
PIT
Run gamePIT offense · CAR defense
PIT +0.02 #10
CAR #24 +0.02
PIT
Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · PIT defense
CAR 2.0 #13
PIT #4 3.1
PIT
Pass attackCAR offense · PIT defense
CAR -0.05 #25
PIT #17 +0.03
PIT
Pass attackPIT offense · CAR defense
PIT +0.03 #16
CAR #24 +0.11
CAR
Pass yardsPIT offense · CAR defense
PIT 214 #22
CAR #14 215
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
PIT
Run block vs frontPIT offense · CAR defense
PIT 98 #26
CAR #32 148
CAR
Pass yardsCAR offense · PIT defense
CAR 194 #27
PIT #30 261
PIT
Run block vs frontCAR offense · PIT defense
CAR 117 #15
PIT #13 114
PIT
Run gameCAR offense · PIT defense
CAR -0.03 #22
PIT #20 +0.00
PIT
Red zonePIT offense · CAR defense
PIT 66% #11
CAR #12 60%
PIT
3rd downCAR offense · PIT defense
CAR 36% #25
PIT #25 43%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CAR offense against what it runs into
CAR OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC PIT DEFENSE
PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
DEF +8
#17 +0.03
-0.03 #22
Run game
even
#20 +0.00
194 #27
Pass yards
even
#30 261
116 #19
Rush yards
even
#13 113
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#5 2.8
36% #25
3rd down
even
#25 43%
59% #24
Red zone
DEF +15
#9 58%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CARpass pro
rush +9
PITpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sk#29
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sk#35
2.0 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 3.1
CARrun block
even
PITrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Derrick Harmon LDE
1.0 tfl#638
Keeanu Benton NT
6.0 tfl#152
Cameron Heyward RDE
9.0 tfl#58
T.J. Watt WLB
10.0 tfl#42
Payton Wilson LILB
6.0 tfl#153
117 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 114
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PIT offense against what it runs into
PIT OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CAR DEFENSE
PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
OFF +8
#24 +0.11
+0.02 #10
Run game
OFF +14
#24 +0.02
214 #22
Pass yards
DEF +8
#14 215
103 #26
Rush yards
even
#20 123
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +21
#30 1.8
41% #14
3rd down
OFF +18
#32 48%
66% #11
Red zone
even
#12 60%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PITpass pro
line +21
CARpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sk#78
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sk#77
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sk#72
1.9 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
PITrun block
even
CARrun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Derrick Brown LDE
5.0 tfl#177
Lee Hunter NT
—
Bobby Brown III RDE
3.0 tfl#352
Patrick Jones II WLB
2.0 tfl#457
Devin Lloyd LILB
6.0 tfl#127
98 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 148