Carolina Panthers
@
Pittsburgh Steelers
MODEL PIT 62%
Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 13:00
· Acrisure Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: CAR 0 – 1 PIT
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CAR OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
PIT OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CAR OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
DEF +8
#17 +0.03
-0.03 #22
Run game
even
#20 +0.00
194 #27
Pass yards
even
#30 261
116 #19
Rush yards
even
#13 113
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
even
#6 2.8
36% #25
3rd down
even
#25 43%
59% #24
Red zone
DEF +15
#9 58%
PIT OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
OFF +8
#24 +0.11
+0.02 #10
Run game
OFF +14
#24 +0.02
214 #22
Pass yards
DEF +8
#14 215
103 #26
Rush yards
even
#20 123
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +17
#28 1.8
41% #14
3rd down
OFF +18
#32 48%
66% #11
Red zone
even
#12 60%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CAR PASS RUSH
vs
PIT PASS PRO
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sacks '25
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sacks '25
Nic Scourton LB
5.0 sacks '25
1.8 #11
sacks allowed /g
#6 1.8
PIT PASS RUSH
vs
CAR PASS PRO
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sacks '25
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sacks '25
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sacks '25
2.1 #13
sacks allowed /g
#28 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CAR
Bryce Young QB
vs #17 PASS D
192.6 pass y/g 4/10
Chuba Hubbard RB
vs #20 RUN D
34.8 rush y/g 2/10
Tetairoa McMillan WR1
vs #17 PASS D
60.8 rec y/g 4/10
Jalen Coker WR2
vs #17 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 6/10
Xavier Legette WR3
vs #17 PASS D
23.2 rec y/g 2/10
Tommy Tremble TE
vs #17 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 3/10
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB
vs #24 PASS D
204.0 pass y/g 4/10
Jaylen Warren RB
vs #24 RUN D
58.9 rush y/g 6/10
DK Metcalf WR1
vs #24 PASS D
55.8 rec y/g 1/10
Michael Pittman Jr. WR2
2025: IND
vs #24 PASS D
46.1 rec y/g 3/10
Roman Wilson WR3
vs #24 PASS D
18.4 rec y/g 2/9
Pat Freiermuth TE
vs #24 PASS D
31.5 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.