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Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 13:00 · Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CAR 0 – 1 PIT
no sides on this game yet · the record
CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette
PIT win probability
ours 69% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CAR 19 – PIT 26 · PIT -6.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Steelersspread · margin, last 10
PIT -3.5
PIT −6.4
5/10
at the line
bookPITCAR
DK
CZR
Steelerstotal · points in the game, last 10
41.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

6 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CAR · 2
Jalen CokerWRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays  |  with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Patrick Jones IILBOUTBack
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Donte KentCBOUTUndisclosed
Joey Porter Jr.CBOUTBack
Jack DriscollOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
DeShon ElliottSOUTUndisclosed · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PIT Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · CAR defense LINE +21 PIT 1.9 #8 CAR #29 1.8
PIT 3rd downPIT offense · CAR defense OFF +18 PIT 41% #14 CAR #32 48%
PIT Red zoneCAR offense · PIT defense DEF +15 CAR 59% #24 PIT #9 58%
PIT Run gamePIT offense · CAR defense OFF +14 PIT +0.02 #10 CAR #24 +0.02
PIT Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · PIT defense RUSH +9 CAR 2.0 #13 PIT #4 3.1
PIT Pass attackCAR offense · PIT defense DEF +8 CAR -0.05 #25 PIT #17 +0.03
PIT Pass attackPIT offense · CAR defense OFF +8 PIT +0.03 #16 CAR #24 +0.11
CAR Pass yardsPIT offense · CAR defense DEF +8 PIT 214 #22 CAR #14 215
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
PIT Run block vs frontPIT offense · CAR defense LINE +6 PIT 98 #26 CAR #32 148
CAR Pass yardsCAR offense · PIT defense OFF +3 CAR 194 #27 PIT #30 261
PIT Run block vs frontCAR offense · PIT defense FRONT +2 CAR 117 #15 PIT #13 114
PIT Run gameCAR offense · PIT defense DEF +2 CAR -0.03 #22 PIT #20 +0.00
PIT Red zonePIT offense · CAR defense OFF +1 PIT 66% #11 CAR #12 60%
PIT 3rd downCAR offense · PIT defense DEF +0 CAR 36% #25 PIT #25 43%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

PIT DEFENSE CAR OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CAR offense against what it runs into

CAR OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC PIT DEFENSE

PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.

-0.05 #25 Pass attack DEF +8 #17 +0.03
-0.03 #22 Run game even #20 +0.00
194 #27 Pass yards even #30 261
116 #19 Rush yards even #13 113
2.1 #13 Pass pro vs rush DEF +8 #5 2.8
36% #25 3rd down even #25 43%
59% #24 Red zone DEF +15 #9 58%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CARpass pro rush +9 PITpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling
Alex Highsmith LB 9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB 7.5 sk#29
T.J. Watt OLB 7.0 sk#35
2.0 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 3.1
CARrun block even PITrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling
Derrick Harmon LDE 1.0 tfl#638
Keeanu Benton NT 6.0 tfl#152
Cameron Heyward RDE 9.0 tfl#58
T.J. Watt WLB 10.0 tfl#42
Payton Wilson LILB 6.0 tfl#153
117 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 114