no sides on this game yet · the record
TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out
ATL win probability
ours 37%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TB 26 – ATL 21 · TB -4.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
ATL +1.25
ATL +4.4
5/10
—at the line
| book | ATL | TB |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
14 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
TB · 7
| Sean Tucker | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| David Sills V | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | OUT | Knee |
|
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays | with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Josh Hayes | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Mohamed Kamara | LB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Justin Skule | OT | OUT | Oblique |
| Jacob Parrish | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Back |
ATL · 7
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
|
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays | with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
| |||
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | OUT | Oblique |
| Trey Sermon | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Billy Bowman Jr. | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Da'Shawn Hand | DT | OUT | Quadriceps |
| Cameron Williams | OL | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Chris Lindstrom | G | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
TB
Run gameATL offense · TB defense
ATL -0.03 #23
TB #3 -0.07
ATL
Red zoneATL offense · TB defense
ATL 65% #13
TB #32 74%
TB
3rd downATL offense · TB defense
ATL 34% #30
TB #13 40%
ATL
Pass pro vs rushATL offense · TB defense
ATL 1.9 #9
TB #26 1.9
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #11
ATL
Pass pro vs rushTB offense · ATL defense
TB 2.5 #19
ATL #5 3.1
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
TB
Run gameTB offense · ATL defense
TB +0.01 #12
ATL #25 +0.03
ATL
Pass attackTB offense · ATL defense
TB -0.03 #22
ATL #13 -0.03
ATL
Pass yardsATL offense · TB defense
ATL 218 #20
TB #27 255
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
ATL
Red zoneTB offense · ATL defense
TB 62% #19
ATL #13 62%
ATL
Run block vs frontTB offense · ATL defense
TB 112 #22
ATL #16 116
ATL
Pass yardsTB offense · ATL defense
TB 221 #19
ATL #15 222
TB
Run block vs frontATL offense · TB defense
ATL 125 #9
TB #5 100
TB
3rd downTB offense · ATL defense
TB 42% #13
ATL #15 40%
TB
Pass attackATL offense · TB defense
ATL -0.01 #21
TB #20 +0.07
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TB offense against what it runs into
TB OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ATL DEFENSE
TB offence: Josh Grizzard called these → Zac Robinson calls it now.
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
DEF +9
#13 -0.03
+0.01 #12
Run game
OFF +13
#25 +0.03
221 #19
Pass yards
even
#15 222
115 #21
Rush yards
even
#24 126
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +15
#2 3.4
42% #13
3rd down
even
#15 40%
62% #19
Red zone
even
#13 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TBpass pro
rush +14
ATLpass rush
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sk#24
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sk#56
2.5 #19sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 3.1
TBrun block
even
ATLrun D
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
LaCale London LDE
7.0 tfl#90
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT
6.0 tfl#136
Brandon Dorlus RDE
11.0 tfl#31
Za'Darius Smith WLB
2.0 tfl#395
Kendal Daniels LILB
—
112 #22rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 116
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ATL offense against what it runs into
ATL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
TB DEFENSE
ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#20 +0.07
-0.03 #23
Run game
DEF +20
#3 -0.07
218 #20
Pass yards
even
#27 255
126 #8
Rush yards
even
#5 99
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +14
#18 2.2
34% #30
3rd down
DEF +17
#13 40%
65% #13
Red zone
OFF +19
#32 74%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ATLpass pro
line +17
TBpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sk#11
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sk#43
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sk#81
1.9 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#26 1.9
ATLrun block
even
TBrun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Calijah Kancey LDE
1.0 tfl#558
Vita Vea NT
7.0 tfl#105
A'Shawn Robinson RDE
3.0 tfl#290
Rueben Bain Jr. WLB
—
Alex Anzalone LILB
4.0 tfl#250
125 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#5 100