Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Atlanta Falcons
DIV
MODEL ATL 52%
Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 13:00
· Mercedes-Benz Stadium
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: TB 5 – 5 ATL
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
TB OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
ATL OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
TB OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
DEF +9
#13 -0.03
+0.01 #12
Run game
OFF +13
#25 +0.03
221 #19
Pass yards
even
#15 222
115 #21
Rush yards
even
#24 126
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#2 3.4
42% #13
3rd down
even
#15 40%
62% #19
Red zone
even
#13 62%
ATL OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#20 +0.07
-0.03 #23
Run game
DEF +20
#3 -0.07
218 #20
Pass yards
even
#27 255
126 #8
Rush yards
even
#5 99
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +14
#18 2.2
34% #30
3rd down
DEF +17
#13 40%
65% #13
Red zone
OFF +19
#32 74%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
TB PASS RUSH
vs
ATL PASS PRO
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sacks '25
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sacks '25
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sacks '25
1.5 #4
sacks allowed /g
#2 2.2
ATL PASS RUSH
vs
TB PASS PRO
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sacks '25
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sacks '25
Jalon Walker LB
5.5 sacks '25
2.2 #16
sacks allowed /g
#18 3.4
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
TB
Baker Mayfield QB
vs #13 PASS D
217.2 pass y/g 3/10
Bucky Irving RB
vs #25 RUN D
58.8 rush y/g 7/10
Emeka Egbuka WR1
vs #13 PASS D
55.2 rec y/g 2/10
Chris Godwin Jr. WR2
vs #13 PASS D
40.0 rec y/g 3/9
Jalen McMillan WR3
vs #13 PASS D
44.5 rec y/g 1/4
Cade Otton TE
vs #13 PASS D
38.1 rec y/g 4/10
ATL
Tua Tagovailoa QB
2025: MIA
vs #20 PASS D
190.0 pass y/g 5/10
Bijan Robinson RB
vs #3 RUN D
86.9 rush y/g 4/10
Drake London WR1
vs #20 PASS D
76.6 rec y/g 6/10
Jahan Dotson WR2
2025: PHI
vs #20 PASS D
16.4 rec y/g 3/10
Olamide Zaccheaus WR3
2025: CHI
vs #20 PASS D
20.6 rec y/g 3/10
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE
vs #20 PASS D
54.6 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.