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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons ★ DIV · NFC SOUTH ★

Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 13:00 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: TB 5 – 5 ATL
no sides on this game yet · the record
TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III    ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out
ATL win probability
ours 37% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TB 26 – ATL 21 · TB -4.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Falconsspread · margin, last 10
ATL +1.25
ATL +4.4
5/10
at the line
bookATLTB
DK
CZR
Falconstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

14 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
TB · 7
Sean TuckerRBOUTHamstring
David Sills VWROUTUndisclosed · IR
Jalen McMillanWROUTKnee
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays  |  with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Josh HayesCBOUTKnee · IR
Mohamed KamaraLBOUTKnee · IR
Justin SkuleOTOUTOblique
Jacob ParrishCBQUESTIONABLEBack
ATL · 7
Michael Penix Jr.QBOUTKnee - ACL
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
Tua TagovailoaQBOUTOblique
Trey SermonRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Billy Bowman Jr.CBOUTAchilles
Da'Shawn HandDTOUTQuadriceps
Cameron WilliamsOLOUTAnkle · IR
Chris LindstromGQUESTIONABLEConcussion

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
TB Run gameATL offense · TB defense DEF +20 ATL -0.03 #23 TB #3 -0.07
ATL Red zoneATL offense · TB defense OFF +19 ATL 65% #13 TB #32 74%
TB 3rd downATL offense · TB defense DEF +17 ATL 34% #30 TB #13 40%
ATL Pass pro vs rushATL offense · TB defense LINE +17 ATL 1.9 #9 TB #26 1.9 Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #11
ATL Pass pro vs rushTB offense · ATL defense RUSH +14 TB 2.5 #19 ATL #5 3.1 James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
TB Run gameTB offense · ATL defense OFF +13 TB +0.01 #12 ATL #25 +0.03
ATL Pass attackTB offense · ATL defense DEF +9 TB -0.03 #22 ATL #13 -0.03
ATL Pass yardsATL offense · TB defense OFF +7 ATL 218 #20 TB #27 255
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
ATL Red zoneTB offense · ATL defense DEF +6 TB 62% #19 ATL #13 62%
ATL Run block vs frontTB offense · ATL defense FRONT +6 TB 112 #22 ATL #16 116
ATL Pass yardsTB offense · ATL defense DEF +4 TB 221 #19 ATL #15 222
TB Run block vs frontATL offense · TB defense FRONT +4 ATL 125 #9 TB #5 100
TB 3rd downTB offense · ATL defense OFF +2 TB 42% #13 ATL #15 40%
TB Pass attackATL offense · TB defense DEF +1 ATL -0.01 #21 TB #20 +0.07

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

ATL DEFENSE TB OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units TB offense against what it runs into

TB OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 ATL DEFENSE

TB offence: Josh Grizzard called these → Zac Robinson calls it now.

-0.03 #22 Pass attack DEF +9 #13 -0.03
+0.01 #12 Run game OFF +13 #25 +0.03
221 #19 Pass yards even #15 222
115 #21 Rush yards even #24 126
2.2 #17 Pass pro vs rush DEF +15 #2 3.4
42% #13 3rd down even #15 40%
62% #19 Red zone even #13 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

TBpass pro rush +14 ATLpass rush
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE 8.5 sk#24
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT 6.0 sk#56
2.5 #19sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 3.1
TBrun block even ATLrun D
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
LaCale London LDE 7.0 tfl#90
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT 6.0 tfl#136
Brandon Dorlus RDE 11.0 tfl#31
Za'Darius Smith WLB 2.0 tfl#395
Kendal Daniels LILB
112 #22rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 116