Matchups — Week 16 16 games · heat = 2025 rank gap
SUN DEC 27 · 1:00 PM · DIV
MetLife Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
NE New England Patriots at
14-3
#2
#4
NYJ New York Jets
3-14
#29
#31
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PRENYJ 35%
PASS ATTACK
Patriots #1
→
Jets #32
+31
RED ZONE
Patriots #9
→
Jets #29
+20
RUN GAME
Patriots #13
→
Jets #26
+13
SUN DEC 27 · 1:00 PM
Lucas Oil Stadium
'25OFFDEF
CIN Cincinnati Bengals at
6-11
#12
#30
IND Indianapolis Colts
8-9
#8
#21
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PREIND 63%
RUN GAME
Colts #3
→
Bengals #29
+26
RED ZONE
Colts #7
→
Bengals #26
+19
PASS ATTACK
Colts #12
→
Bengals #28
+16
SUN DEC 27 · 4:25 PM
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
SF San Francisco 49ers at
12-5
#10
#13
KAN Kansas City Chiefs
6-11
#21
#6
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PREKAN 54%
PASS PRO
49ers #5
→
Chiefs #26
+21
RUN GAME
Chiefs #6
→
49ers #22
+16
PASS ATTACK
Chiefs #14
→
49ers #25
+11
SUN DEC 27 · 8:20 PM
AT&T Stadium
'25OFFDEF
JAC Jacksonville Jaguars at
13-4
#6
#8
DAL Dallas Cowboys
7-9-1
#7
#32
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PREDAL 44%
PASS ATTACK
Jaguars #11
→
Cowboys #31
+20
RED ZONE
Jaguars #12
→
Cowboys #31
+19
PASS PRO
Cowboys #10
→
Jaguars #27
+17
FRI DEC 25 · 4:30 PM
Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
BUF Buffalo Bills at
12-5
#5
#12
DEN Denver Broncos
14-3
#14
#3
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PREDEN 53%
PASS PRO
Broncos #1
→
Bills #20
+19
RUN GAME
Broncos #16
→
Bills #30
+14
RUN GAME
Bills #1
→
Broncos #10
+9
SUN DEC 27 · 1:00 PM · DIV
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
'25OFFDEF
TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers at
8-9
#18
#20
ATL Atlanta Falcons
8-9
#24
#19
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PREATL 52%
RED ZONE
Falcons #13
→
Buccaneers #32
+19
PASS PRO
Falcons #4
→
Buccaneers #18
+14
RUN GAME
Buccaneers #12
→
Falcons #25
+13
SUN DEC 27 · 1:00 PM
Acrisure Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
CAR Carolina Panthers at
8-9
#27
#15
PIT Pittsburgh Steelers
10-7
#15
#17
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PREPIT 62%
PASS PRO
Steelers #11
→
Panthers #28
+17
RUN GAME
Steelers #10
→
Panthers #24
+14
PASS ATTACK
Steelers #16
→
Panthers #24
+8
MON DEC 28 · 8:15 PM
Ford Field · dome
'25OFFDEF
NYG New York Giants at
4-13
#17
#26
DET Detroit Lions
9-8
#4
#22
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PREDET 69%
RED ZONE
Lions #5
→
Giants #22
+17
RUN GAME
Giants #5
→
Lions #18
+13
PASS ATTACK
Lions #4
→
Giants #16
+12
FRI DEC 25 · 1:00 PM · DIV
Soldier Field · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
GB Green Bay Packers at
9-7-1
#16
#11
CHI Chicago Bears
11-6
#9
#23
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PRECHI 54%
PASS PRO
Bears #3
→
Packers #19
+16
PASS ATTACK
Packers #3
→
Bears #18
+15
PASS PRO
Packers #7
→
Bears #22
+15
SUN DEC 27 · 1:00 PM
Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
LAC Los Angeles Chargers at
11-6
#20
#9
MIA Miami Dolphins
7-10
#25
#24
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PREMIA 48%
RUN GAME
Chargers #11
→
Dolphins #27
+16
THU DEC 24 · 8:15 PM
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
HOU Houston Texans at
12-5
#13
#2
PHI Philadelphia Eagles
11-6
#19
#5
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PREPHI 52%
RED ZONE
Eagles #2
→
Texans #16
+14
SUN DEC 27 · 1:00 PM
U.S. Bank Stadium · dome
'25OFFDEF
WAS Washington Commanders at
5-12
#22
#27
MIN Minnesota Vikings
9-8
#26
#7
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PREMIN 63%
RUN GAME
Vikings #20
→
Commanders #28
+8
FRI DEC 25 · 8:15 PM · DIV
Lumen Field · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
LAR Los Angeles Rams at
12-5
#1
#10
SEA Seattle Seahawks
14-3
#3
#1
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PRESEA 59%
no major mismatch — evenly built
SUN DEC 27 · 1:00 PM
Caesars Superdome · dome
'25OFFDEF
ARI Arizona Cardinals at
3-14
#23
#29
NO New Orleans Saints
6-11
#28
#16
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PRENO 57%
no major mismatch — evenly built
SUN DEC 27 · 1:00 PM · DIV
M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
CLE Cleveland Browns at
5-12
#31
#14
BAL Baltimore Ravens
8-9
#11
#18
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PREBAL 70%
no major mismatch — evenly built
SUN DEC 27 · 4:05 PM
Allegiant Stadium · dome
'25OFFDEF
TEN Tennessee Titans at
3-14
#30
#28
LV Las Vegas Raiders
3-14
#32
#25
SPREAD—
TOTAL—
BOOK—
MODEL·PRELV 56%
no major mismatch — evenly built
OFF/DEF are each team's 2025 points scored / allowed ranks (of 32); mismatch rows pair an offense unit with the defense it runs into — amber gap, weak side in red. SPREAD/TOTAL/BOOK are the market; MODEL is our calibrated spine (preseason, prior-only) — side by side on purpose, not a pick. Weather fills in as kickoff nears. Tap for the full dossier.