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Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 13:00 · Caesars Superdome · dome · sportturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: ARI 2 – 0 NO
no sides on this game yet · the record
ARI James Conner RB out · Tip Reiman TE out    NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out
NO win probability
ours 56% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ARI 22 – NO 24 · NO -2.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Saintsspread · margin, last 10
NO -5.5
NO −2.0
3/10
at the line
bookNOARI
DK
CZR
Saintstotal · points in the game, last 10
44.5
held
2/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

16 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
ARI · 8
James ConnerRBOUTFoot · IR
Tip ReimanTEOUTAnkle
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Garrett WilliamsCBOUTAchilles
Kaleb ProctorDTOUTKnee - Meniscus · IR
Zachary CarterDTOUTKnee · IR
Isaiah AdamsGOUTKnee
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSOUTRibs
Kitan CrawfordSQUESTIONABLEAnkle
NO · 8
Alvin KamaraRBOUTKnee - MCL
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays  |  with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
Audric EstimeRBOUTThigh · IR
Oscar DelpTEOUTHamstring
5 more · line, defense, specialists
David Long Jr.CBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cameron JordanDEOUTHamstring
Dillon RadunzGOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Jaylan FordLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Lorenzo Styles Jr.SOUTCalf · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NO Run gameARI offense · NO defense DEF +26 ARI -0.06 #28 NO #2 -0.07
NO Pass yardsNO offense · ARI defense OFF +14 NO 237 #10 ARI #24 243
NO Red zoneARI offense · NO defense DEF +11 ARI 56% #26 NO #15 62%
ARI Red zoneNO offense · ARI defense DEF +11 NO 50% #32 ARI #21 67%
NO 3rd downNO offense · ARI defense OFF +10 NO 40% #19 ARI #29 45%
NO Pass pro vs rushARI offense · NO defense RUSH +10 ARI 3.1 #26 NO #16 2.2 Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13Chase Young DE 10.0 sk #15
ARI Run gameNO offense · ARI defense DEF +10 NO -0.10 #31 ARI #21 +0.01
ARI Run block vs frontNO offense · ARI defense FRONT +9 NO 94 #30 ARI #21 120
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
NO 3rd downARI offense · NO defense DEF +7 ARI 42% #12 NO #5 36%
ARI Pass pro vs rushNO offense · ARI defense RUSH +7 NO 3.2 #28 ARI #21 2.0 Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #9
NO Pass attackARI offense · NO defense DEF +5 ARI +0.00 #17 NO #12 -0.05
NO Run block vs frontARI offense · NO defense FRONT +5 ARI 96 #28 NO #23 127 Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #10
ARI Pass attackNO offense · ARI defense DEF +0 NO -0.08 #27 ARI #27 +0.15
NO Pass yardsARI offense · NO defense DEF +0 ARI 256 #5 NO #5 196

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

NO DEFENSE ARI OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Pass-heavy · 34% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units ARI offense against what it runs into

ARI OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 NO DEFENSE

ARI offence: Drew Petzing called these → Nathaniel Hackett calls it now.

+0.00 #17 Pass attack even #12 -0.05
-0.06 #28 Run game DEF +26 #2 -0.07
256 #5 Pass yards even #5 196
93 #31 Rush yards DEF +12 #19 121
3.5 #28 Pass pro vs rush DEF +17 #11 2.6
42% #12 3rd down even #5 36%
56% #26 Red zone DEF +11 #15 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

ARIpass pro rush +10 NOpass rush
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk#13
Chase Young DE 10.0 sk#15
Carl Granderson DE 6.0 sk#54
3.1 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
ARIrun block even NOrun D
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl#10
Davon Godchaux NT 2.0 tfl#409
Colby Wooden RDE 6.0 tfl#150
Carl Granderson WLB 11.0 tfl#33
Kaden Elliss LILB 10.0 tfl#42
96 #28rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 127