Arizona Cardinals
@
New Orleans Saints
MODEL NO 57%
Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 13:00
· Caesars Superdome (dome)
· sportturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: ARI 2 – 0 NO
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
ARI OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
NO OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
ARI OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
even
#12 -0.05
-0.06 #28
Run game
DEF +26
#2 -0.07
256 #5
Pass yards
even
#5 196
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +12
#19 121
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +17
#11 2.6
42% #12
3rd down
even
#5 36%
56% #26
Red zone
DEF +11
#15 62%
NO OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
even
#27 +0.15
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +10
#21 +0.01
237 #10
Pass yards
OFF +14
#24 243
94 #28
Rush yards
even
#25 127
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
even
#29 1.8
40% #19
3rd down
OFF +10
#29 45%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +11
#21 67%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
ARI PASS RUSH
vs
NO PASS PRO
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sacks '25
Jonah Williams DE
3.0 sacks '25
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sacks '25
2.9 #25
sacks allowed /g
#11 1.8
NO PASS RUSH
vs
ARI PASS PRO
Chase Young DE
10.0 sacks '25
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sacks '25
Tyree Wilson DE
4.0 sacks '25
3.5 #28
sacks allowed /g
#29 2.6
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB
vs #12 PASS D
240.4 pass y/g 8/10
Jeremiyah Love RB
vs #2 RUN D
— rush y/g
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR1
vs #12 PASS D
50.7 rec y/g 5/10
Michael Wilson WR2
vs #12 PASS D
59.2 rec y/g 6/10
Kendrick Bourne WR3
2025: SF
vs #12 PASS D
36.7 rec y/g 1/10
Trey McBride TE
vs #12 PASS D
72.9 rec y/g 6/10
NO
Tyler Shough QB
vs #27 PASS D
216.7 pass y/g 7/10
Travis Etienne Jr. RB
2025: JAC
vs #21 RUN D
65.2 rush y/g 5/10
Chris Olave WR1
vs #27 PASS D
72.7 rec y/g 5/10
Jordyn Tyson WR2
vs #27 PASS D
— rec y/g
Devaughn Vele WR3
vs #27 PASS D
32.6 rec y/g 4/9
Juwan Johnson TE
vs #27 PASS D
52.3 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.