no sides on this game yet · the record
ARI James Conner RB out · Tip Reiman TE out NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out
NO win probability
ours 56%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ARI 22 – NO 24 · NO -2.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NO -5.5
NO −2.0
3/10
—at the line
| book | NO | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
44.5
held
2/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
16 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
ARI · 8
| James Conner | RB | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Tip Reiman | TE | OUT | Ankle |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Garrett Williams | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Kaleb Proctor | DT | OUT | Knee - Meniscus · IR |
| Zachary Carter | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Isaiah Adams | G | OUT | Knee |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | S | OUT | Ribs |
| Kitan Crawford | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
NO · 8
| Alvin Kamara | RB | OUT | Knee - MCL |
|
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays | with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
| |||
| Audric Estime | RB | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Oscar Delp | TE | OUT | Hamstring |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| David Long Jr. | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Cameron Jordan | DE | OUT | Hamstring |
| Dillon Radunz | G | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Jaylan Ford | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Lorenzo Styles Jr. | S | OUT | Calf · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NO
Run gameARI offense · NO defense
ARI -0.06 #28
NO #2 -0.07
NO
Pass yardsNO offense · ARI defense
NO 237 #10
ARI #24 243
NO
Red zoneARI offense · NO defense
ARI 56% #26
NO #15 62%
ARI
Red zoneNO offense · ARI defense
NO 50% #32
ARI #21 67%
NO
3rd downNO offense · ARI defense
NO 40% #19
ARI #29 45%
NO
Pass pro vs rushARI offense · NO defense
ARI 3.1 #26
NO #16 2.2
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13
ARI
Run gameNO offense · ARI defense
NO -0.10 #31
ARI #21 +0.01
ARI
Run block vs frontNO offense · ARI defense
NO 94 #30
ARI #21 120
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
NO
3rd downARI offense · NO defense
ARI 42% #12
NO #5 36%
ARI
Pass pro vs rushNO offense · ARI defense
NO 3.2 #28
ARI #21 2.0
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #9
NO
Pass attackARI offense · NO defense
ARI +0.00 #17
NO #12 -0.05
NO
Run block vs frontARI offense · NO defense
ARI 96 #28
NO #23 127
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #10
ARI
Pass attackNO offense · ARI defense
NO -0.08 #27
ARI #27 +0.15
NO
Pass yardsARI offense · NO defense
ARI 256 #5
NO #5 196
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ARI offense against what it runs into
ARI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NO DEFENSE
ARI offence: Drew Petzing called these → Nathaniel Hackett calls it now.
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
even
#12 -0.05
-0.06 #28
Run game
DEF +26
#2 -0.07
256 #5
Pass yards
even
#5 196
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +12
#19 121
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +17
#11 2.6
42% #12
3rd down
even
#5 36%
56% #26
Red zone
DEF +11
#15 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ARIpass pro
rush +10
NOpass rush
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Cameron Jordan LB
10.5 sk#13
Chase Young DE
10.0 sk#16
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sk#54
3.1 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
ARIrun block
even
NOrun D
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Cameron Jordan LDE
15.0 tfl#10
Davon Godchaux NT
2.0 tfl#425
Colby Wooden RDE
6.0 tfl#125
Carl Granderson WLB
11.0 tfl#32
Kaden Elliss LILB
10.0 tfl#46
96 #28rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 127
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NO offense against what it runs into
NO OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ARI DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
even
#27 +0.15
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +10
#21 +0.01
237 #10
Pass yards
OFF +14
#24 243
94 #28
Rush yards
even
#25 127
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
even
#29 1.8
40% #19
3rd down
OFF +10
#29 45%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +11
#21 67%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NOpass pro
even
ARIpass rush
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sk#9
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sk#228
Baron Browning LB
2.0 sk#202
3.2 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#21 2.0
NOrun block
front +9
ARIrun D
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Josh Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#17
Roy Lopez LDT
4.0 tfl#228
Walter Nolen III RDT
5.0 tfl#165
Dante Stills RDE
2.0 tfl#384
Jack Gibbens WLB
8.0 tfl#86
94 #30rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 120