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Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 13:00 · Lucas Oil Stadium · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CIN 1 – 0 IND
no sides on this game yet · the record
IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q
IND win probability
ours 59% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CIN 25 – IND 28 · IND -2.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Coltsspread · margin, last 10
IND +1.25
IND −2.9
1/10
at the line
bookINDCIN
DK
CZR
Coltstotal · points in the game, last 10
52.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

9 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Ja'Sir TaylorCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Shemar StewartDEOUTKnee
Brian Parker IIOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
IND · 6
D.J. MontgomeryWROUTAbdomen · IR
Carson TowtTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Will MalloryTEOUTThumb · IR
Alec PierceWRQUESTIONABLEWrist
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
Sean McKeonTEQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Austin AjiakeLBOUTHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND Run gameIND offense · CIN defense OFF +26 IND +0.09 #3 CIN #29 +0.09
CIN Pass yardsCIN offense · IND defense OFF +24 CIN 250 #7 IND #31 262
CIN 3rd downCIN offense · IND defense OFF +21 CIN 44% #5 IND #26 43%
IND 3rd downIND offense · CIN defense OFF +20 IND 43% #7 CIN #27 44%
IND Red zoneIND offense · CIN defense OFF +19 IND 68% #7 CIN #26 69%
IND Pass yardsIND offense · CIN defense OFF +17 IND 240 #8 CIN #25 246
IND Pass attackIND offense · CIN defense OFF +16 IND +0.06 #12 CIN #28 +0.16
IND Run block vs frontCIN offense · IND defense FRONT +12 CIN 95 #29 IND #17 117
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
IND Run block vs frontIND offense · CIN defense LINE +12 IND 116 #18 CIN #30 139
CIN Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · IND defense LINE +7 CIN 1.9 #10 IND #17 2.2
IND Pass pro vs rushIND offense · CIN defense LINE +5 IND 1.8 #7 CIN #12 2.4
IND Pass attackCIN offense · IND defense DEF +4 CIN -0.03 #23 IND #19 +0.04
CIN Red zoneCIN offense · IND defense OFF +4 CIN 76% #1 IND #5 55%
CIN Run gameCIN offense · IND defense OFF +1 CIN +0.02 #8 IND #9 -0.05

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

IND DEFENSE CIN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Pass-heavy · 35% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CIN offense against what it runs into

CIN OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 IND DEFENSE
-0.03 #23 Pass attack even #19 +0.04
+0.02 #8 Run game even #9 -0.05
250 #7 Pass yards OFF +24 #31 262
94 #29 Rush yards DEF +22 #7 102
2.1 #14 Pass pro vs rush even #16 2.3
44% #5 3rd down OFF +21 #26 43%
76% #1 Red zone even #5 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CINpass pro even INDpass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Laiatu Latu DE 8.5 sk#22
Arden Key DE 4.0 sk#96
DeForest Buckner DT 4.0 sk#102
1.9 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
CINrun block front +12 INDrun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Arden Key LDE 6.0 tfl#139
Grover Stewart LDT 5.0 tfl#196
DeForest Buckner RDT 9.0 tfl#64
Laiatu Latu RDE 12.0 tfl#26
Jaylon Carlies WLB
95 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 117