Cincinnati Bengals
@
Indianapolis Colts
MODEL IND 63%
Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 13:00
· Lucas Oil Stadium
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: CIN 1 – 0 IND
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CIN OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
IND OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CIN OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
even
#19 +0.04
+0.02 #8
Run game
even
#9 -0.05
250 #7
Pass yards
OFF +24
#31 262
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +22
#7 102
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
even
#15 2.3
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +21
#26 43%
76% #1
Red zone
even
#5 55%
IND OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
OFF +16
#28 +0.16
+0.09 #3
Run game
OFF +26
#29 +0.09
240 #8
Pass yards
OFF +17
#25 246
118 #17
Rush yards
OFF +15
#32 147
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +15
#23 2.0
43% #7
3rd down
OFF +20
#27 44%
68% #7
Red zone
OFF +19
#26 69%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CIN PASS RUSH
vs
IND PASS PRO
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sacks '25
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sacks '25
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sacks '25
1.7 #8
sacks allowed /g
#15 2.0
IND PASS RUSH
vs
CIN PASS PRO
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sacks '25
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sacks '25
Adetomiwa Adebawore DT
4.0 sacks '25
2.1 #14
sacks allowed /g
#23 2.3
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CIN
Joe Burrow QB
vs #19 PASS D
226.1 pass y/g 5/8
Chase Brown RB
vs #9 RUN D
59.9 rush y/g 7/10
Ja'Marr Chase WR1
vs #19 PASS D
88.2 rec y/g 7/10
Tee Higgins WR2
vs #19 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 7/10
Andrei Iosivas WR3
vs #19 PASS D
29.0 rec y/g 4/10
Mike Gesicki TE
vs #19 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
IND
Daniel Jones QB
vs #28 PASS D
238.5 pass y/g 5/10
Jonathan Taylor RB
vs #29 RUN D
93.2 rush y/g 2/10
Alec Pierce WR1
vs #28 PASS D
66.9 rec y/g 7/10
Josh Downs WR2
vs #28 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 5/10
Ashton Dulin WR3
vs #28 PASS D
8.8 rec y/g 3/10
Tyler Warren TE
vs #28 PASS D
48.1 rec y/g 2/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.