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Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 16:25 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: SF 0 – 3 KC
no sides on this game yet · the record
SF De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q    KC Jimmy Holiday WR out
KC win probability
ours 54% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SF 22 – KC 23 · KC -1.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Chiefsspread · margin, last 10
KC -3
KAN −1.3
1/9
at the line
bookKANSF
DK
CZR
Chiefstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
2/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

7 designations · as of 6:00 PM
SF · 3
De'Zhaun StriblingWRDOUBTFULAnkle
Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Jake TongesTEQUESTIONABLEKnee
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Alfred CollinsDTOUTKnee · IR
KC · 4
Jimmy HolidayWROUTUndisclosed · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Omarr Norman-LottDTOUTKnee - ACL
Josh SimmonsOTOUTBack
Chamarri ConnerSOUTKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SF 3rd downSF offense · KC defense OFF +27 SF 51% #1 KC #28 44%
SF Pass pro vs rushSF offense · KC defense LINE +22 SF 1.3 #2 KC #24 1.9
KC Run gameKC offense · SF defense OFF +16 KC +0.03 #6 SF #22 +0.01
SF Run block vs frontKC offense · SF defense FRONT +15 KC 107 #25 SF #10 110
KC Run block vs frontSF offense · KC defense FRONT +13 SF 114 #20 KC #7 106
KC Pass attackKC offense · SF defense OFF +11 KC +0.04 #14 SF #25 +0.11
SF Red zoneKC offense · SF defense DEF +11 KC 58% #25 SF #14 62%
KC Pass pro vs rushKC offense · SF defense LINE +9 KC 2.8 #23 SF #32 0.9
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
SF Pass attackSF offense · KC defense OFF +8 SF +0.16 #7 KC #15 -0.00
KC Pass yardsKC offense · SF defense OFF +7 KC 232 #16 SF #23 242
KC Run gameSF offense · KC defense DEF +7 SF -0.00 #18 KC #11 -0.04
SF 3rd downKC offense · SF defense DEF +3 KC 38% #23 SF #20 41%
SF Pass yardsSF offense · KC defense OFF +2 SF 254 #6 KC #8 205
KC Red zoneSF offense · KC defense DEF +2 SF 68% #8 KC #6 55%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

KC DEFENSE SF OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units SF offense against what it runs into

SF OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 KC DEFENSE
+0.16 #7 Pass attack OFF +8 #15 -0.00
-0.00 #18 Run game even #11 -0.04
254 #6 Pass yards even #8 205
107 #24 Rush yards DEF +15 #9 106
1.6 #6 Pass pro vs rush OFF +20 #26 1.9
51% #1 3rd down OFF +27 #28 44%
68% #8 Red zone even #6 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

SFpass pro line +22 KCpass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Chris Jones DE 7.0 sk#43
George Karlaftis DE 6.0 sk#54
Drue Tranquill LB 2.0 sk#207
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 1.9
SFrun block front +13 KCrun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
George Karlaftis LDE 10.0 tfl#44
Chris Jones LDT 12.0 tfl#19
Khyiris Tonga RDT 2.0 tfl#441
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
Drue Tranquill WLB 10.0 tfl#46
114 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 106