no sides on this game yet · the record
SF De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q KC Jimmy Holiday WR out
KC win probability
ours 54%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SF 22 – KC 23 · KC -1.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
KC -3
KAN −1.3
1/9
—at the line
| book | KAN | SF |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
2/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
7 designations · as of 6:00 PM
SF · 3
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | DOUBTFUL | Ankle |
| Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g) | |||
| Jake Tonges | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Alfred Collins | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
KC · 4
| Jimmy Holiday | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Omarr Norman-Lott | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Josh Simmons | OT | OUT | Back |
| Chamarri Conner | S | OUT | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SF
3rd downSF offense · KC defense
SF 51% #1
KC #28 44%
SF
Pass pro vs rushSF offense · KC defense
SF 1.3 #2
KC #24 1.9
KC
Run gameKC offense · SF defense
KC +0.03 #6
SF #22 +0.01
SF
Run block vs frontKC offense · SF defense
KC 107 #25
SF #10 110
KC
Run block vs frontSF offense · KC defense
SF 114 #20
KC #7 106
KC
Pass attackKC offense · SF defense
KC +0.04 #14
SF #25 +0.11
SF
Red zoneKC offense · SF defense
KC 58% #25
SF #14 62%
KC
Pass pro vs rushKC offense · SF defense
KC 2.8 #23
SF #32 0.9
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
SF
Pass attackSF offense · KC defense
SF +0.16 #7
KC #15 -0.00
KC
Pass yardsKC offense · SF defense
KC 232 #16
SF #23 242
KC
Run gameSF offense · KC defense
SF -0.00 #18
KC #11 -0.04
SF
3rd downKC offense · SF defense
KC 38% #23
SF #20 41%
SF
Pass yardsSF offense · KC defense
SF 254 #6
KC #8 205
KC
Red zoneSF offense · KC defense
SF 68% #8
KC #6 55%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SF offense against what it runs into
SF OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
KC DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
OFF +8
#15 -0.00
-0.00 #18
Run game
even
#11 -0.04
254 #6
Pass yards
even
#8 205
107 #24
Rush yards
DEF +15
#9 106
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +20
#26 1.9
51% #1
3rd down
OFF +27
#28 44%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#6 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SFpass pro
line +22
KCpass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sk#43
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sk#54
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sk#207
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 1.9
SFrun block
front +13
KCrun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
George Karlaftis LDE
10.0 tfl#44
Chris Jones LDT
12.0 tfl#19
Khyiris Tonga RDT
2.0 tfl#441
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
—
Drue Tranquill WLB
10.0 tfl#46
114 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 106
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units KC offense against what it runs into
KC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC SF DEFENSE
KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
OFF +11
#25 +0.11
+0.03 #6
Run game
OFF +16
#22 +0.01
232 #16
Pass yards
even
#23 242
107 #25
Rush yards
DEF +14
#11 108
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +10
#32 1.2
38% #23
3rd down
even
#20 41%
58% #25
Red zone
DEF +11
#14 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
KCpass pro
line +9
SFpass rush
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sk#112
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sk#152
Keion White DE
1.5 sk#262
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
KCrun block
front +15
SFrun D
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Keion White LDE
2.0 tfl#367
Osa Odighizuwa LDT
6.0 tfl#136
Gracen Halton RDT
—
Nick Bosa RDE
4.0 tfl#268
Dre Greenlaw WLB
2.0 tfl#386
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 110