San Francisco 49ers
@
Kansas City Chiefs
MODEL KAN 54%
Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 16:25
· GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: SF 0 – 3 KAN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
SF OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
KAN OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
SF OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
OFF +8
#15 -0.00
-0.00 #17
Run game
even
#11 -0.04
254 #6
Pass yards
even
#8 205
107 #24
Rush yards
DEF +15
#9 106
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +21
#26 1.9
51% #1
3rd down
OFF +27
#28 44%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#6 55%
KAN OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
OFF +11
#25 +0.11
+0.03 #6
Run game
OFF +16
#22 +0.01
232 #16
Pass yards
even
#23 242
107 #25
Rush yards
DEF +14
#11 108
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +10
#32 1.2
38% #23
3rd down
even
#20 41%
58% #25
Red zone
DEF +11
#14 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
SF PASS RUSH
vs
KAN PASS PRO
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sacks '25
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sacks '25
Keion White DE
2.5 sacks '25
2.8 #22
sacks allowed /g
#26 1.2
KAN PASS RUSH
vs
SF PASS PRO
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sacks '25
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sacks '25
1.6 #5
sacks allowed /g
#32 1.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
SF
Brock Purdy QB
vs #15 PASS D
233.5 pass y/g 5/10
Christian McCaffrey RB
vs #11 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 5/10
Mike Evans WR1
2025: TB
vs #15 PASS D
46.0 rec y/g 3/8
Ricky Pearsall WR2
vs #15 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 5/10
Christian Kirk WR3
2025: HOU
vs #15 PASS D
31.0 rec y/g 3/10
George Kittle TE
vs #15 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 6/10
KAN
Patrick Mahomes QB
vs #25 PASS D
256.2 pass y/g 7/10
Kenneth Walker III RB
2025: SEA
vs #22 RUN D
67.0 rush y/g 5/10
Rashee Rice WR1
vs #25 PASS D
71.4 rec y/g 4/8
Xavier Worthy WR2
vs #25 PASS D
38.0 rec y/g 5/10
Tyquan Thornton WR3
vs #25 PASS D
36.5 rec y/g 5/10
Travis Kelce TE
vs #25 PASS D
50.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.