no sides on this game yet · the record
NYG Najee Harris RB out → Tyrone Tracy Jr. · Dalen Cambre WR out · Thomas Fidone II TE out DET Isiah Pacheco RB out
DET win probability
ours 70%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYG 21 – DET 28 · DET -6.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DET -5.5
DET −6.7
3/10
—at the line
| book | DET | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
49.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
19 designations · as of 11:45 PM
NYG · 9
| Najee Harris | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
|
Next up: Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB3 · 12 car · 49 rush yds · 3 tgt · 54% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Harris: 5 car · 20 rush yds · 1 tgt · 22% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
| |||
| Dalen Cambre | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Thomas Fidone II | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Korie Black | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Nic Jones | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Bobby Jamison-Travis | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | DT | OUT | Achilles · IR |
| J.C. Davis | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jason Pinnock | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
DET · 10
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | OUT | Back · IR |
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cade Mays | C | OUT | Wrist · IR |
| Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ahmed Hassanein | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Payton Turner | DE | OUT | Back · IR |
| Mekhi Wingo | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jimmy Rolder | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Giovanni Manu | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Christian Izien | S | OUT | Groin |
| Christian Mahogany | G | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET
Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · DET defense
NYG 2.8 #23
DET #6 2.8
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
DET
Red zoneDET offense · NYG defense
DET 70% #5
NYG #22 68%
DET
Run block vs frontDET offense · NYG defense
DET 120 #14
NYG #31 145
Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
DET
Pass yardsDET offense · NYG defense
DET 269 #3
NYG #17 230
NYG
Run gameNYG offense · DET defense
NYG +0.04 #5
DET #18 -0.01
DET
Pass attackDET offense · NYG defense
DET +0.17 #4
NYG #16 +0.03
DET
3rd downNYG offense · DET defense
NYG 40% #17
DET #9 37%
NYG
Run block vs frontNYG offense · DET defense
NYG 129 #5
DET #13 115
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #13
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
DET
Run gameDET offense · NYG defense
DET -0.04 #24
NYG #32 +0.17
NYG
3rd downDET offense · NYG defense
DET 39% #20
NYG #14 40%
DET
Pass attackNYG offense · DET defense
NYG -0.01 #19
DET #14 -0.01
NYG
Pass pro vs rushDET offense · NYG defense
DET 2.3 #18
NYG #16 2.2
Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
DET
Pass yardsNYG offense · DET defense
NYG 218 #21
DET #21 237
DET
Red zoneNYG offense · DET defense
NYG 59% #23
DET #23 68%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYG offense against what it runs into
NYG OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
DET DEFENSE
NYG offence: Mike Kafka called these → Matt Nagy calls it now.
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
even
#14 -0.01
+0.04 #5
Run game
OFF +13
#18 -0.01
218 #21
Pass yards
even
#21 237
129 #5
Rush yards
OFF +9
#14 115
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +17
#6 2.8
40% #17
3rd down
DEF +8
#9 37%
59% #23
Red zone
even
#23 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYGpass pro
rush +17
DETpass rush
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sk#71
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sk#101
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
NYGrun block
line +8
DETrun D
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Aidan Hutchinson LDE
14.0 tfl#13
Alim McNeill LDT
2.0 tfl#366
Tyleik Williams RDT
2.0 tfl#458
DJ Wonnum RDE
4.0 tfl#235
Derrick Barnes WLB
6.0 tfl#160
129 #5rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 115
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DET offense against what it runs into
DET OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC NYG DEFENSE
DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.
NYG defence: Shane Bowen called these → Dennard Wilson calls it now.
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +12
#16 +0.03
-0.04 #24
Run game
OFF +8
#32 +0.17
269 #3
Pass yards
OFF +14
#17 230
120 #14
Rush yards
OFF +17
#31 145
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
even
#17 2.2
39% #20
3rd down
even
#14 40%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +17
#22 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DETpass pro
even
NYGpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sk#2
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sk#100
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sk#126
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
DETrun block
line +17
NYGrun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Shelby Harris LDE
7.0 tfl#102
DJ Reader NT
—
Chauncey Golston RDE
5.0 tfl#175
Brian Burns WLB
22.0 tfl#3
Arvell Reese LILB
—
120 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#31 145