New York Giants
@
Detroit Lions
MODEL DET 69%
Week 16 · 2026-12-28 · 20:15
· Ford Field (dome)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: NYG 0 – 2 DET
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NYG OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
DET OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NYG OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
even
#14 -0.01
+0.04 #5
Run game
OFF +13
#18 -0.01
218 #21
Pass yards
even
#21 237
129 #5
Rush yards
OFF +9
#14 115
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +18
#5 2.8
40% #17
3rd down
DEF +8
#9 37%
59% #23
Red zone
even
#23 68%
DET OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +12
#16 +0.03
-0.04 #24
Run game
OFF +8
#32 +0.17
269 #3
Pass yards
OFF +14
#17 230
120 #14
Rush yards
OFF +17
#31 145
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
even
#17 2.2
39% #20
3rd down
even
#14 40%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +17
#22 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NYG PASS RUSH
vs
DET PASS PRO
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sacks '25
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sacks '25
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sacks '25
2.3 #18
sacks allowed /g
#5 2.2
DET PASS RUSH
vs
NYG PASS PRO
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sacks '25
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sacks '25
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sacks '25
2.8 #23
sacks allowed /g
#17 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NYG
Jaxson Dart QB
vs #14 PASS D
162.3 pass y/g 8/10
Cam Skattebo RB
vs #18 RUN D
51.2 rush y/g 5/8
Malik Nabers WR1
vs #14 PASS D
67.8 rec y/g 2/4
Darius Slayton WR2
vs #14 PASS D
38.4 rec y/g 4/10
Darnell Mooney WR3
2025: ATL
vs #14 PASS D
29.5 rec y/g 4/10
Isaiah Likely TE
2025: BAL
vs #14 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
DET
Jared Goff QB
vs #16 PASS D
268.5 pass y/g 7/10
Jahmyr Gibbs RB
vs #32 RUN D
71.9 rush y/g 3/10
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1
vs #16 PASS D
82.4 rec y/g 5/10
Jameson Williams WR2
vs #16 PASS D
65.7 rec y/g 8/10
Isaac TeSlaa WR3
vs #16 PASS D
17.1 rec y/g 5/10
Sam LaPorta TE
vs #16 PASS D
54.3 rec y/g 4/9
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.