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Week 16 · 2026-12-28 · 20:15 · Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: NYG 0 – 2 DET
no sides on this game yet · the record
NYG Najee Harris RB out → Tyrone Tracy Jr. · Dalen Cambre WR out · Thomas Fidone II TE out    DET Isiah Pacheco RB out
DET win probability
ours 70% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYG 21 – DET 28 · DET -6.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Lionsspread · margin, last 10
DET -5.5
DET −6.7
3/10
at the line
bookDETNYG
DK
CZR
Lionstotal · points in the game, last 10
49.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

19 designations · as of 11:45 PM
NYG · 9
Najee HarrisRBOUTCoach's Decision
Next up: Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB3 · 12 car · 49 rush yds · 3 tgt · 54% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Harris: 5 car · 20 rush yds · 1 tgt · 22% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Dalen CambreWROUTCoach's Decision
Thomas Fidone IITEOUTCoach's Decision
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Korie BlackCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Nic JonesCBOUTCoach's Decision
Bobby Jamison-TravisDTOUTCoach's Decision
Roy Robertson-HarrisDTOUTAchilles · IR
J.C. DavisOTOUTCoach's Decision
Jason PinnockSOUTCoach's Decision
DET · 10
Isiah PachecoRBOUTBack · IR
9 more · line, defense, specialists
Cade MaysCOUTWrist · IR
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.CBOUTCoach's Decision
Ahmed HassaneinDEOUTCoach's Decision
Payton TurnerDEOUTBack · IR
Mekhi WingoDTOUTCoach's Decision
Jimmy RolderLBOUTCoach's Decision
Giovanni ManuOTOUTKnee
Christian IzienSOUTGroin
Christian MahoganyGQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · DET defense RUSH +17 NYG 2.8 #23 DET #6 2.8 Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
DET Red zoneDET offense · NYG defense OFF +17 DET 70% #5 NYG #22 68%
DET Run block vs frontDET offense · NYG defense LINE +17 DET 120 #14 NYG #31 145 Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
DET Pass yardsDET offense · NYG defense OFF +14 DET 269 #3 NYG #17 230
NYG Run gameNYG offense · DET defense OFF +13 NYG +0.04 #5 DET #18 -0.01
DET Pass attackDET offense · NYG defense OFF +12 DET +0.17 #4 NYG #16 +0.03
DET 3rd downNYG offense · DET defense DEF +8 NYG 40% #17 DET #9 37%
NYG Run block vs frontNYG offense · DET defense LINE +8 NYG 129 #5 DET #13 115 Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #13
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
DET Run gameDET offense · NYG defense OFF +8 DET -0.04 #24 NYG #32 +0.17
NYG 3rd downDET offense · NYG defense DEF +6 DET 39% #20 NYG #14 40%
DET Pass attackNYG offense · DET defense DEF +5 NYG -0.01 #19 DET #14 -0.01
NYG Pass pro vs rushDET offense · NYG defense RUSH +2 DET 2.3 #18 NYG #16 2.2 Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
DET Pass yardsNYG offense · DET defense DEF +0 NYG 218 #21 DET #21 237
DET Red zoneNYG offense · DET defense DEF +0 NYG 59% #23 DET #23 68%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

DET DEFENSE NYG OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 47% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NYG offense against what it runs into

NYG OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 DET DEFENSE

NYG offence: Mike Kafka called these → Matt Nagy calls it now.

-0.01 #19 Pass attack even #14 -0.01
+0.04 #5 Run game OFF +13 #18 -0.01
218 #21 Pass yards even #21 237
129 #5 Rush yards OFF +9 #14 115
2.8 #23 Pass pro vs rush DEF +17 #6 2.8
40% #17 3rd down DEF +8 #9 37%
59% #23 Red zone even #23 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NYGpass pro rush +17 DETpass rush
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB 5.0 sk#71
Derrick Barnes LB 4.0 sk#101
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
NYGrun block line +8 DETrun D
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl#13
Alim McNeill LDT 2.0 tfl#366
Tyleik Williams RDT 2.0 tfl#458
DJ Wonnum RDE 4.0 tfl#235
Derrick Barnes WLB 6.0 tfl#160
129 #5rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 115