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Week 16 · 2026-12-25 · 16:30 · Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: BUF 1 – 2 DEN
no sides on this game yet · the record
BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Tyrell Shavers WR out    DEN Sam Ehlinger QB out · Tyler Badie RB out · Caleb Lohner TE out · Dallen Bentley TE out
DEN win probability
ours 51% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BUF 24 – DEN 24 · DEN -0.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Broncosspread · margin, last 10
DEN +1.5
DEN −0.2
9/10
at the line
bookDENBUF
DK
FD
SCORE
CZR
Broncostotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
SCORE
CZR
FD
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

15 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
BUF · 4
Ty JohnsonRBOUTHamstring
Tyrell ShaversWROUTKnee - ACL
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Dorian StrongCBOUTNeck
T.J. SandersDTOUTKnee
DEN · 11
Sam EhlingerQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler BadieRBOUTCoach's Decision
Caleb LohnerTEOUTLower Body · IR
Dallen BentleyTEOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Jordan JacksonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler OnyedimDTOUTCoach's Decision
Nick GargiuloGOUTKnee - ACL
Jonathon CooperLBOUTPersonal
Levelle BaileyLBOUTLeg · IR
Frank CrumOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kage CaseyOTOUTCoach's Decision

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · DEN defense RUSH +17 BUF 2.3 #18 DEN #1 4.0 Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
BUF Pass yardsDEN offense · BUF defense DEF +16 DEN 231 #17 BUF #1 170
DEN 3rd downDEN offense · BUF defense OFF +15 DEN 43% #9 BUF #24 42%
DEN Run block vs frontDEN offense · BUF defense LINE +15 DEN 119 #14 BUF #29 134
DEN Run gameDEN offense · BUF defense OFF +14 DEN +0.00 #16 BUF #30 +0.09
DEN Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · BUF defense LINE +10 DEN 1.4 #3 BUF #13 2.3
DEN Red zoneDEN offense · BUF defense OFF +9 DEN 63% #15 BUF #24 68%
BUF Run gameBUF offense · DEN defense OFF +9 BUF +0.11 #1 DEN #10 -0.04
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
BUF Pass attackDEN offense · BUF defense DEF +2 DEN +0.08 #9 BUF #7 -0.11
DEN Pass yardsBUF offense · DEN defense DEF +2 BUF 234 #13 DEN #11 212
DEN Red zoneBUF offense · DEN defense DEF +2 BUF 72% #3 DEN #1 48%
DEN 3rd downBUF offense · DEN defense DEF +1 BUF 46% #3 DEN #2 34%
DEN Run block vs frontBUF offense · DEN defense FRONT +1 BUF 151 #3 DEN #2 91
DEN Pass attackBUF offense · DEN defense DEF +0 BUF +0.16 #6 DEN #6 -0.12

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

DEN DEFENSE BUF OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units BUF offense against what it runs into

BUF OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 DEN DEFENSE

BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.

+0.16 #6 Pass attack even #6 -0.12
+0.11 #1 Run game OFF +9 #10 -0.04
234 #13 Pass yards even #11 212
160 #1 Rush yards even #2 91
2.4 #19 Pass pro vs rush DEF +18 #1 4.0
46% #3 3rd down even #2 34%
72% #3 Red zone even #1 48%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

BUFpass pro rush +17 DENpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB 8.0 sk#26
Zach Allen DE 7.0 sk#37
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
BUFrun block even DENrun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Zach Allen LDE 4.0 tfl#223
D.J. Jones NT 4.0 tfl#238
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE 5.0 tfl#203
Jonah Elliss WLB 5.0 tfl#201
Alex Singleton LILB 3.0 tfl#333
151 #3rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91