Buffalo Bills
@
Denver Broncos
MODEL DEN 53%
Week 16 · 2026-12-25 · 16:30
· Empower Field at Mile High (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: BUF 1 – 2 DEN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
BUF OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
DEN OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
BUF OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
even
#6 -0.12
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +9
#10 -0.04
234 #13
Pass yards
even
#11 212
160 #1
Rush yards
even
#2 91
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +18
#1 4.0
46% #3
3rd down
even
#2 34%
72% #3
Red zone
even
#1 48%
DEN OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
even
#7 -0.11
+0.00 #16
Run game
OFF +14
#30 +0.09
231 #17
Pass yards
DEF +16
#1 170
119 #16
Rush yards
OFF +12
#28 136
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +19
#20 2.1
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +15
#24 42%
63% #16
Red zone
OFF +8
#24 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
BUF PASS RUSH
vs
DEN PASS PRO
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sacks '25
Greg Rousseau LB
8.0 sacks '25
C.J. Gardner-Johnson SAF
3.0 sacks '25
1.4 #1
sacks allowed /g
#1 2.1
DEN PASS RUSH
vs
BUF PASS PRO
Nik Bonitto LB
15.0 sacks '25
Jonathon Cooper LB
9.0 sacks '25
Zach Allen DE
8.5 sacks '25
2.4 #19
sacks allowed /g
#20 4.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
BUF
Josh Allen QB
vs #6 PASS D
234.7 pass y/g 7/10
James Cook III RB
vs #10 RUN D
93.9 rush y/g 5/10
DJ Moore WR1
2025: CHI
vs #6 PASS D
42.0 rec y/g 5/10
Khalil Shakir WR2
vs #6 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 5/10
Joshua Palmer WR3
vs #6 PASS D
25.2 rec y/g 2/10
Dalton Kincaid TE
vs #6 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 3/10
DEN
Bo Nix QB
vs #7 PASS D
233.9 pass y/g 5/10
J.K. Dobbins RB
vs #30 RUN D
77.2 rush y/g 5/10
Courtland Sutton WR1
vs #7 PASS D
57.2 rec y/g 5/10
Jaylen Waddle WR2
2025: MIA
vs #7 PASS D
56.9 rec y/g 4/10
Troy Franklin WR3
vs #7 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 4/10
Evan Engram TE
vs #7 PASS D
27.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.