no sides on this game yet · the record
BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Tyrell Shavers WR out DEN Sam Ehlinger QB out · Tyler Badie RB out · Caleb Lohner TE out · Dallen Bentley TE out
DEN win probability
ours 51%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BUF 24 – DEN 24 · DEN -0.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DEN +1.5
DEN −0.2
9/10
—at the line
| book | DEN | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR | ||
| FD |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
15 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
BUF · 4
| Ty Johnson | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| Tyrell Shavers | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL |
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dorian Strong | CB | OUT | Neck |
| T.J. Sanders | DT | OUT | Knee |
DEN · 11
| Sam Ehlinger | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Badie | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Caleb Lohner | TE | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Dallen Bentley | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jordan Jackson | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Onyedim | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Nick Gargiulo | G | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jonathon Cooper | LB | OUT | Personal |
| Levelle Bailey | LB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Frank Crum | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kage Casey | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN
Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · DEN defense
BUF 2.3 #18
DEN #1 4.0
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
BUF
Pass yardsDEN offense · BUF defense
DEN 231 #17
BUF #1 170
DEN
3rd downDEN offense · BUF defense
DEN 43% #9
BUF #24 42%
DEN
Run block vs frontDEN offense · BUF defense
DEN 119 #14
BUF #29 134
DEN
Run gameDEN offense · BUF defense
DEN +0.00 #16
BUF #30 +0.09
DEN
Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · BUF defense
DEN 1.4 #3
BUF #13 2.3
DEN
Red zoneDEN offense · BUF defense
DEN 63% #15
BUF #24 68%
BUF
Run gameBUF offense · DEN defense
BUF +0.11 #1
DEN #10 -0.04
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
BUF
Pass attackDEN offense · BUF defense
DEN +0.08 #9
BUF #7 -0.11
DEN
Pass yardsBUF offense · DEN defense
BUF 234 #13
DEN #11 212
DEN
Red zoneBUF offense · DEN defense
BUF 72% #3
DEN #1 48%
DEN
3rd downBUF offense · DEN defense
BUF 46% #3
DEN #2 34%
DEN
Run block vs frontBUF offense · DEN defense
BUF 151 #3
DEN #2 91
DEN
Pass attackBUF offense · DEN defense
BUF +0.16 #6
DEN #6 -0.12
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BUF offense against what it runs into
BUF OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
DEN DEFENSE
BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
even
#6 -0.12
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +9
#10 -0.04
234 #13
Pass yards
even
#11 212
160 #1
Rush yards
even
#2 91
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +18
#1 4.0
46% #3
3rd down
even
#2 34%
72% #3
Red zone
even
#1 48%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BUFpass pro
rush +17
DENpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Nik Bonitto LB
14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB
8.0 sk#26
Zach Allen DE
7.0 sk#37
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
BUFrun block
even
DENrun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Zach Allen LDE
4.0 tfl#223
D.J. Jones NT
4.0 tfl#238
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE
5.0 tfl#203
Jonah Elliss WLB
5.0 tfl#201
Alex Singleton LILB
3.0 tfl#333
151 #3rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DEN offense against what it runs into
DEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC BUF DEFENSE
DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
even
#7 -0.11
+0.00 #16
Run game
OFF +14
#30 +0.09
231 #17
Pass yards
DEF +16
#1 170
119 #16
Rush yards
OFF +12
#28 136
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +18
#19 2.1
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +15
#24 42%
63% #15
Red zone
OFF +9
#24 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DENpass pro
line +10
BUFpass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sk#21
Greg Rousseau LB
7.0 sk#43
Ed Oliver DT
3.0 sk#143
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#13 2.3
DENrun block
line +15
BUFrun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
T.J. Sanders LDE
1.0 tfl#524
Deone Walker NT
8.0 tfl#76
Ed Oliver RDE
7.0 tfl#119
Greg Rousseau WLB
6.0 tfl#161
Dorian Williams LILB
1.0 tfl#526
119 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 134