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Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks ★ DIV · NFC WEST ★

Week 16 · 2026-12-25 · 20:15 · Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: LAR 6 – 5 SEA
no sides on this game yet · the record
LAR Davis Allen TE q    SEA Jalen Milroe QB out · Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock
SEA win probability
ours 54% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAR 22 – SEA 24 · SEA -1.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Seahawksspread · margin, last 10
SEA -0.75opened +0
SEA −1.4
7/9
at the line
bookSEALAR
SCORE
CZR
DK
FD
Seahawkstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
FD
CZR
SCORE
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

9 designations · as of 8:00 PM
LAR · 2
Davis AllenTEQUESTIONABLEHead
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Myles GarrettDEOUTKnee
SEA · 7
Jalen MilroeQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tory HortonWROUTHamstring
Sam DarnoldQBDOUBTFULHip
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Mike MorrisDEOUTCoach's Decision
Beau StephensGOUTCoach's Decision
Nick EmmanworiSOUTAnkle
Ty OkadaSOUTHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA 3rd downLAR offense · SEA defense DEF +15 LAR 40% #16 SEA #1 33%
LAR Run gameSEA offense · LAR defense DEF +14 SEA -0.05 #26 LAR #12 -0.04
SEA Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · LAR defense LINE +12 SEA 1.7 #6 LAR #18 2.2 Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #10
SEA Pass yardsSEA offense · LAR defense OFF +11 SEA 239 #9 LAR #20 235
LAR Pass yardsLAR offense · SEA defense OFF +10 LAR 277 #2 SEA #12 213
LAR Red zoneSEA offense · LAR defense DEF +10 SEA 62% #18 LAR #8 56%
LAR Pass attackLAR offense · SEA defense OFF +6 LAR +0.23 #2 SEA #8 -0.10
LAR Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · SEA defense LINE +6 LAR 1.1 #1 SEA #7 2.8
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
SEA Run block vs frontSEA offense · LAR defense LINE +6 SEA 120 #12 LAR #18 120
SEA Run gameLAR offense · SEA defense DEF +6 LAR +0.03 #7 SEA #1 -0.15
LAR 3rd downSEA offense · LAR defense DEF +4 SEA 43% #10 LAR #6 36%
SEA Run block vs frontLAR offense · SEA defense FRONT +3 LAR 126 #7 SEA #4 94
SEA Pass attackSEA offense · LAR defense OFF +2 SEA +0.11 #8 LAR #10 -0.07
SEA Red zoneLAR offense · SEA defense DEF +2 LAR 68% #6 SEA #4 54%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

SEA DEFENSE LAR OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LAR offense against what it runs into

LAR OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 SEA DEFENSE

LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.

+0.23 #2 Pass attack even #8 -0.10
+0.03 #7 Run game even #1 -0.15
277 #2 Pass yards OFF +10 #12 213
127 #7 Rush yards even #3 92
1.4 #2 Pass pro vs rush even #8 2.8
40% #16 3rd down DEF +15 #1 33%
68% #6 Red zone even #4 54%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LARpass pro even SEApass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Byron Murphy II DT 7.0 sk#36
Leonard Williams DE 7.0 sk#38
DeMarcus Lawrence LB 6.0 sk#53
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
LARrun block even SEArun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Leonard Williams LDE 9.0 tfl#64
Byron Murphy II NT 7.0 tfl#96
Jarran Reed RDE 3.0 tfl#322
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB 11.0 tfl#28
Drake Thomas LILB 10.0 tfl#49
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94