no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Quinn Ewers QB out · Tanner Koziol TE out DAL Israel Abanikanda RB out · Malik Davis RB out · Camden Brown WR out · DJ Rogers TE out
DAL win probability
ours 46%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected JAX 26 – DAL 25 · JAX -1.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DAL -3
DAL +1.3
2/8
—at the line
| book | DAL | JAC |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
51.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
JAX · 10
| Quinn Ewers | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tanner Koziol | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Sam Mustipher | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Bryan Thomas Jr. | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Wesley Williams | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Zach Durfee | DE | OUT | Upper Body · IR |
| Daniel Faalele | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Patrick Mekari | G | OUT | Back · IR |
| Jalen Huskey | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| B.J. Green II | DE | QUESTIONABLE | Elbow |
DAL · 12
| Israel Abanikanda | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Malik Davis | RB | OUT | Hip · IR |
| Camden Brown | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| DJ Rogers | TE | OUT | Knee · IR |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Matt Hennessy | C | OUT | Neck · IR |
| Caelen Carson | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Devin Moore | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kelvin Gilliam Jr. | DT | OUT | Triceps · IR |
| Tyler Smith | G | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Marist Liufau | LB | OUT | Forearm · IR |
| Tyrus Wheat | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ajani Cornelius | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX
Pass yardsJAX offense · DAL defense
JAX 237 #11
DAL #32 266
JAX
Pass attackJAX offense · DAL defense
JAX +0.06 #11
DAL #31 +0.22
JAX
Red zoneJAX offense · DAL defense
JAX 65% #12
DAL #31 72%
DAL
Pass yardsDAL offense · JAX defense
DAL 279 #1
JAX #19 231
DAL
Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · JAX defense
DAL 1.8 #11
JAX #27 1.9
JAX
Run gameJAX offense · DAL defense
JAX -0.00 #17
DAL #31 +0.09
JAX
3rd downJAX offense · DAL defense
JAX 40% #18
DAL #31 48%
DAL
3rd downDAL offense · JAX defense
DAL 43% #8
JAX #17 41%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
DAL
Red zoneDAL offense · JAX defense
DAL 62% #17
JAX #25 68%
JAX
Run block vs frontDAL offense · JAX defense
DAL 126 #9
JAX #1 86
JAX
Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · DAL defense
JAX 2.4 #20
DAL #25 2.0
JAX
Run block vs frontJAX offense · DAL defense
JAX 115 #20
DAL #23 125
JAX
Pass attackDAL offense · JAX defense
DAL +0.16 #5
JAX #3 -0.14
JAX
Run gameDAL offense · JAX defense
DAL +0.01 #15
JAX #13 -0.04
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units JAX offense against what it runs into
JAX OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC DAL DEFENSE
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
OFF +20
#31 +0.22
-0.00 #17
Run game
OFF +14
#31 +0.09
237 #11
Pass yards
OFF +21
#32 266
115 #20
Rush yards
even
#23 125
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
even
#25 2.0
40% #18
3rd down
OFF +13
#31 48%
65% #12
Red zone
OFF +19
#31 72%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
JAXpass pro
even
DALpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Von Miller OLB
9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sk#30
James Houston DE
5.5 sk#59
2.4 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 2.0
JAXrun block
even
DALrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Quinnen Williams LDE
10.0 tfl#50
Otito Ogbonnia NT
3.0 tfl#342
Kenny Clark RDE
6.0 tfl#160
Rashan Gary WLB
7.0 tfl#101
DeMarvion Overshown LILB
1.0 tfl#533
115 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 125
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DAL offense against what it runs into
DAL OFFENSE
2025
JAX DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
even
#3 -0.14
+0.01 #15
Run game
even
#13 -0.04
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +18
#19 231
126 #9
Rush yards
DEF +8
#1 86
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +16
#27 1.9
43% #8
3rd down
OFF +9
#17 41%
62% #17
Red zone
OFF +8
#25 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DALpass pro
line +16
JAXpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Josh Hines-Allen DE
8.0 sk#26
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sk#60
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sk#109
1.8 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#27 1.9
DALrun block
front +8
JAXrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Travon Walker LDE
8.0 tfl#69
Arik Armstead LDT
7.0 tfl#100
DaVon Hamilton RDT
3.0 tfl#346
Josh Hines-Allen RDE
12.0 tfl#23
Foyesade Oluokun WLB
5.0 tfl#175
126 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#1 86