Jacksonville Jaguars
@
Dallas Cowboys
MODEL DAL 44%
Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 20:20
· AT&T Stadium
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: JAC 1 – 0 DAL
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
JAC OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
DAL OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
JAC OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
OFF +20
#31 +0.22
-0.01 #18
Run game
OFF +13
#31 +0.09
237 #11
Pass yards
OFF +21
#32 266
115 #20
Rush yards
even
#23 125
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
even
#24 2.0
40% #18
3rd down
OFF +13
#31 48%
65% #12
Red zone
OFF +19
#31 72%
DAL OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
even
#3 -0.14
+0.01 #15
Run game
even
#13 -0.04
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +18
#19 231
126 #9
Rush yards
DEF +8
#1 86
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +17
#27 1.9
43% #8
3rd down
OFF +9
#17 41%
62% #17
Red zone
OFF +8
#25 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
JAC PASS RUSH
vs
DAL PASS PRO
Josh Hines-Allen DE
9.0 sacks '25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sacks '25
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sacks '25
1.8 #10
sacks allowed /g
#24 1.9
DAL PASS RUSH
vs
JAC PASS PRO
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sacks '25
James Houston DE
5.5 sacks '25
Kenny Clark NT
3.0 sacks '25
2.4 #20
sacks allowed /g
#27 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
JAC
Trevor Lawrence QB
vs #31 PASS D
234.1 pass y/g 6/10
Bhayshul Tuten RB
vs #31 RUN D
22.4 rush y/g 4/10
Brian Thomas Jr. WR1
vs #31 PASS D
48.5 rec y/g 5/10
Jakobi Meyers WR2
vs #31 PASS D
49.8 rec y/g 4/10
Parker Washington WR3
vs #31 PASS D
56.1 rec y/g 6/10
Brenton Strange TE
vs #31 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
DAL
Dak Prescott QB
vs #3 PASS D
267.8 pass y/g 6/10
Javonte Williams RB
vs #13 RUN D
75.1 rush y/g 5/10
CeeDee Lamb WR1
vs #3 PASS D
82.8 rec y/g 4/10
George Pickens WR2
vs #3 PASS D
84.1 rec y/g 4/10
Ryan Flournoy WR3
vs #3 PASS D
31.7 rec y/g 4/10
Jake Ferguson TE
vs #3 PASS D
35.3 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.