BallKnowMe
More
NFL
1–1 · 50% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups
Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 20:20 · AT&T Stadium · matrixturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: JAX 1 – 0 DAL
no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Quinn Ewers QB out · Tanner Koziol TE out    DAL Israel Abanikanda RB out · Malik Davis RB out · Camden Brown WR out · DJ Rogers TE out
DAL win probability
ours 46% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected JAX 26 – DAL 25 · JAX -1.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Cowboysspread · margin, last 10
DAL -3
DAL +1.3
2/8
at the line
bookDALJAC
DK
CZR
Cowboystotal · points in the game, last 10
51.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
JAX · 10
Quinn EwersQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tanner KoziolTEOUTCoach's Decision
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Sam MustipherCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Bryan Thomas Jr.DEOUTCoach's Decision
Wesley WilliamsDEOUTCoach's Decision
Zach DurfeeDEOUTUpper Body · IR
Daniel FaaleleGOUTCoach's Decision
Patrick MekariGOUTBack · IR
Jalen HuskeySOUTCoach's Decision
B.J. Green IIDEQUESTIONABLEElbow
DAL · 12
Israel AbanikandaRBOUTCoach's Decision
Malik DavisRBOUTHip · IR
Camden BrownWROUTCoach's Decision
DJ RogersTEOUTKnee · IR
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Matt HennessyCOUTNeck · IR
Caelen CarsonCBOUTCoach's Decision
Devin MooreCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kelvin Gilliam Jr.DTOUTTriceps · IR
Tyler SmithGOUTThumb · IR
Marist LiufauLBOUTForearm · IR
Tyrus WheatLBOUTCoach's Decision
Ajani CorneliusOTOUTCoach's Decision

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX Pass yardsJAX offense · DAL defense OFF +21 JAX 237 #11 DAL #32 266
JAX Pass attackJAX offense · DAL defense OFF +20 JAX +0.06 #11 DAL #31 +0.22
JAX Red zoneJAX offense · DAL defense OFF +19 JAX 65% #12 DAL #31 72%
DAL Pass yardsDAL offense · JAX defense OFF +18 DAL 279 #1 JAX #19 231
DAL Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · JAX defense LINE +16 DAL 1.8 #11 JAX #27 1.9
JAX Run gameJAX offense · DAL defense OFF +14 JAX -0.00 #17 DAL #31 +0.09
JAX 3rd downJAX offense · DAL defense OFF +13 JAX 40% #18 DAL #31 48%
DAL 3rd downDAL offense · JAX defense OFF +9 DAL 43% #8 JAX #17 41%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
DAL Red zoneDAL offense · JAX defense OFF +8 DAL 62% #17 JAX #25 68%
JAX Run block vs frontDAL offense · JAX defense FRONT +8 DAL 126 #9 JAX #1 86
JAX Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · DAL defense LINE +5 JAX 2.4 #20 DAL #25 2.0
JAX Run block vs frontJAX offense · DAL defense LINE +3 JAX 115 #20 DAL #23 125
JAX Pass attackDAL offense · JAX defense DEF +2 DAL +0.16 #5 JAX #3 -0.14
JAX Run gameDAL offense · JAX defense DEF +2 DAL +0.01 #15 JAX #13 -0.04

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

DAL DEFENSE JAX OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units JAX offense against what it runs into

JAX OFFENSE 2025 OLD DC DAL DEFENSE

DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.

+0.06 #11 Pass attack OFF +20 #31 +0.22
-0.00 #17 Run game OFF +14 #31 +0.09
237 #11 Pass yards OFF +21 #32 266
115 #20 Rush yards even #23 125
2.4 #20 Pass pro vs rush even #25 2.0
40% #18 3rd down OFF +13 #31 48%
65% #12 Red zone OFF +19 #31 72%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

JAXpass pro even DALpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Von Miller OLB 9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB 7.5 sk#30
James Houston DE 5.5 sk#59
2.4 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 2.0
JAXrun block even DALrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Quinnen Williams LDE 10.0 tfl#50
Otito Ogbonnia NT 3.0 tfl#342
Kenny Clark RDE 6.0 tfl#160
Rashan Gary WLB 7.0 tfl#101
DeMarvion Overshown LILB 1.0 tfl#533
115 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 125