no sides on this game yet · the record
WAS Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates MIN Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz · Jordan Mason RB q → Demond Claiborne
MIN win probability
ours 65%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected WAS 20 – MIN 25 · MIN -4.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
MIN -2
MIN −4.9
6/10
—at the line
| book | MIN | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
2/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
9 designations · as of 8:00 PM
WAS · 4
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Frankie Luvu | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
| Jordan Magee | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
| Tyler Owens | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
MIN · 5
| Ben Yurosek | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kyler Murray | QB | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
|
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
| |||
| Jordan Mason | RB | QUESTIONABLE | Thumb |
|
Next up: Demond Claiborne RB3
Mason: 10 car · 47 rush yds · 1 tgt · 43% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
MIN without him, 1 game last season: 36% pass · 23.0 pts · 44 plays | with him (16): 55% pass · 23.3 pts · 53 plays
| |||
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Michael Jurgens | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Tyler Batty | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
WAS
Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · WAS defense
MIN 3.4 #32
WAS #10 2.6
MIN
Pass yardsWAS offense · MIN defense
WAS 196 #24
MIN #2 178
MIN
3rd downWAS offense · MIN defense
WAS 38% #22
MIN #3 35%
MIN
Pass attackWAS offense · MIN defense
WAS -0.01 #18
MIN #2 -0.15
WAS
Run block vs frontWAS offense · MIN defense
WAS 134 #4
MIN #14 116
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
WAS
3rd downMIN offense · WAS defense
MIN 32% #31
WAS #23 42%
MIN
Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · MIN defense
WAS 2.0 #11
MIN #3 3.1
MIN
Run gameMIN offense · WAS defense
MIN -0.01 #20
WAS #28 +0.07
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
MIN
Red zoneMIN offense · WAS defense
MIN 61% #21
WAS #28 70%
MIN
Run block vs frontMIN offense · WAS defense
MIN 108 #24
WAS #31 141
MIN
Run gameWAS offense · MIN defense
WAS +0.02 #9
MIN #6 -0.05
WAS
Pass yardsMIN offense · WAS defense
MIN 189 #30
WAS #28 257
MIN
Red zoneWAS offense · MIN defense
WAS 70% #4
MIN #2 49%
WAS
Pass attackMIN offense · WAS defense
MIN -0.19 #30
WAS #30 +0.20
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units WAS offense against what it runs into
WAS OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
MIN DEFENSE
WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
DEF +16
#2 -0.15
+0.02 #9
Run game
even
#6 -0.05
196 #24
Pass yards
DEF +22
#2 178
135 #4
Rush yards
OFF +17
#21 124
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#4 2.9
38% #22
3rd down
DEF +19
#3 35%
70% #4
Red zone
even
#2 49%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
WASpass pro
rush +8
MINpass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sk#26
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sk#39
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sk#48
2.0 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#3 3.1
WASrun block
line +10
MINrun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE
8.0 tfl#79
Caleb Banks NT
—
Jalen Redmond RDE
12.0 tfl#22
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB
11.0 tfl#29
Eric Wilson LILB
17.0 tfl#6
134 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#14 116
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIN offense against what it runs into
MIN OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC WAS DEFENSE
WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
even
#30 +0.20
-0.01 #20
Run game
OFF +8
#28 +0.07
189 #30
Pass yards
even
#28 257
108 #23
Rush yards
even
#30 142
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +17
#14 2.5
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +8
#23 42%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#28 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MINpass pro
rush +22
WASpass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
7.5 sk#29
Odafe Oweh LB
7.5 sk#30
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sk#58
3.4 #32sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
MINrun block
even
WASrun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Tim Settle LDE
3.0 tfl#350
Daron Payne NT
7.0 tfl#98
Javon Kinlaw RDE
5.0 tfl#202
Odafe Oweh WLB
9.0 tfl#59
Frankie Luvu LILB
5.0 tfl#194
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#31 141