Washington Commanders
@
Minnesota Vikings
MODEL MIN 63%
Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 13:00
· U.S. Bank Stadium (dome)
· sportturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: WAS 0 – 2 MIN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
WAS OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
MIN OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
WAS OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
DEF +16
#2 -0.15
+0.02 #9
Run game
even
#6 -0.05
196 #24
Pass yards
DEF +22
#2 178
135 #4
Rush yards
OFF +17
#21 124
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#4 2.9
38% #22
3rd down
DEF +19
#3 35%
70% #4
Red zone
even
#2 49%
MIN OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
even
#30 +0.20
-0.01 #20
Run game
OFF +8
#28 +0.07
189 #30
Pass yards
even
#28 257
108 #23
Rush yards
even
#30 142
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +18
#13 2.5
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +8
#23 42%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#28 70%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
WAS PASS RUSH
vs
MIN PASS PRO
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
10.5 sacks '25
Odafe Oweh LB
10.5 sacks '25
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sacks '25
3.5 #31
sacks allowed /g
#4 2.5
MIN PASS RUSH
vs
WAS PASS PRO
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sacks '25
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sacks '25
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sacks '25
2.2 #15
sacks allowed /g
#13 2.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
WAS
Jayden Daniels QB
vs #2 PASS D
180.3 pass y/g 4/7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
vs #6 RUN D
47.4 rush y/g 2/10
Terry McLaurin WR1
vs #2 PASS D
58.2 rec y/g 4/10
Antonio Williams WR2
vs #2 PASS D
— rec y/g
Luke McCaffrey WR3
vs #2 PASS D
22.6 rec y/g 4/9
Chig Okonkwo TE
2025: TEN
vs #2 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 6/10
MIN
Kyler Murray QB
2025: ARI
vs #30 PASS D
192.4 pass y/g 3/5
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
vs #28 RUN D
45.7 rush y/g 6/10
Justin Jefferson WR1
vs #30 PASS D
61.6 rec y/g 2/10
Jordan Addison WR2
vs #30 PASS D
43.6 rec y/g 3/10
Jauan Jennings WR3
2025: SF
vs #30 PASS D
41.8 rec y/g 5/10
T.J. Hockenson TE
vs #30 PASS D
29.2 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.