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Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 13:00 · U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: WAS 0 – 2 MIN
no sides on this game yet · the record
WAS Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates    MIN Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz · Jordan Mason RB q → Demond Claiborne
MIN win probability
ours 65% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected WAS 20 – MIN 25 · MIN -4.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Vikingsspread · margin, last 10
MIN -2
MIN −4.9
6/10
at the line
bookMINWAS
DK
CZR
Vikingstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
2/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

9 designations · as of 8:00 PM
WAS · 4
Chig OkonkwoTEQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Frankie LuvuLBQUESTIONABLEGroin
Jordan MageeLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Tyler OwensSQUESTIONABLEAnkle
MIN · 5
Ben YurosekTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kyler MurrayQBQUESTIONABLEConcussion
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Jordan MasonRBQUESTIONABLEThumb
Next up: Demond Claiborne RB3
Mason: 10 car · 47 rush yds · 1 tgt · 43% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
MIN without him, 1 game last season: 36% pass · 23.0 pts · 44 plays  |  with him (16): 55% pass · 23.3 pts · 53 plays
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael JurgensCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Tyler BattyLBOUTKnee - ACL · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
WAS Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · WAS defense RUSH +22 MIN 3.4 #32 WAS #10 2.6
MIN Pass yardsWAS offense · MIN defense DEF +22 WAS 196 #24 MIN #2 178
MIN 3rd downWAS offense · MIN defense DEF +19 WAS 38% #22 MIN #3 35%
MIN Pass attackWAS offense · MIN defense DEF +16 WAS -0.01 #18 MIN #2 -0.15
WAS Run block vs frontWAS offense · MIN defense LINE +10 WAS 134 #4 MIN #14 116 Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
WAS 3rd downMIN offense · WAS defense DEF +8 MIN 32% #31 WAS #23 42%
MIN Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · MIN defense RUSH +8 WAS 2.0 #11 MIN #3 3.1
MIN Run gameMIN offense · WAS defense OFF +8 MIN -0.01 #20 WAS #28 +0.07
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
MIN Red zoneMIN offense · WAS defense OFF +7 MIN 61% #21 WAS #28 70%
MIN Run block vs frontMIN offense · WAS defense LINE +7 MIN 108 #24 WAS #31 141
MIN Run gameWAS offense · MIN defense DEF +3 WAS +0.02 #9 MIN #6 -0.05
WAS Pass yardsMIN offense · WAS defense DEF +2 MIN 189 #30 WAS #28 257
MIN Red zoneWAS offense · MIN defense DEF +2 WAS 70% #4 MIN #2 49%
WAS Pass attackMIN offense · WAS defense DEF +0 MIN -0.19 #30 WAS #30 +0.20

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

MIN DEFENSE WAS OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units WAS offense against what it runs into

WAS OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 MIN DEFENSE

WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.

-0.01 #18 Pass attack DEF +16 #2 -0.15
+0.02 #9 Run game even #6 -0.05
196 #24 Pass yards DEF +22 #2 178
135 #4 Rush yards OFF +17 #21 124
2.2 #15 Pass pro vs rush DEF +11 #4 2.9
38% #22 3rd down DEF +19 #3 35%
70% #4 Red zone even #2 49%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

WASpass pro rush +8 MINpass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Dallas Turner LB 8.0 sk#26
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB 7.0 sk#39
Eric Wilson LB 6.5 sk#48
2.0 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#3 3.1
WASrun block line +10 MINrun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE 8.0 tfl#79
Caleb Banks NT
Jalen Redmond RDE 12.0 tfl#22
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB 11.0 tfl#29
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl#6
134 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#14 116