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Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 16:05 · Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: TEN 1 – 1 LV
no sides on this game yet · the record
LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out
LV win probability
ours 64% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TEN 19 – LV 24 · LV -4.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Raidersspread · margin, last 10
LV -1.5
LV −4.7
2/10
at the line
bookLVTEN
DK
CZR
Raiderstotal · points in the game, last 10
42.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

13 designations · as of 8:00 PM
TEN · 8
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Joshua WilliamsCBOUTPectoral · IR
Tanoh KpassagnonDEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cedric GrayLBOUTConcussion
Dorian MausiLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Jaylen HarrellLBOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Milo EiflerLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kendell BrooksSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Andre JamesCQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
LV · 5
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WROUTUndisclosed · IR
Brock BowersTEOUTKnee - Meniscus
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays  |  with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
Carter RunyonTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Keyron CrawfordDEOUTAnkle · IR
Darien PorterCBQUESTIONABLEFoot

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LV Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · LV defense RUSH +22 TEN 3.2 #29 LV #7 2.8 Maxx Crosby DE 10.0 sk #15
LV Run block vs frontTEN offense · LV defense FRONT +20 TEN 91 #31 LV #11 111 Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
LV Pass yardsTEN offense · LV defense DEF +16 TEN 191 #29 LV #13 214
TEN Run block vs frontLV offense · TEN defense FRONT +13 LV 83 #32 TEN #19 120 Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #6
LV Run gameTEN offense · LV defense DEF +13 TEN -0.06 #27 LV #14 -0.04
LV Pass attackTEN offense · LV defense DEF +9 TEN -0.22 #31 LV #22 +0.08
LV Red zoneTEN offense · LV defense DEF +9 TEN 61% #20 LV #11 59%
TEN Run gameLV offense · TEN defense DEF +9 LV -0.26 #32 TEN #23 +0.02
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
TEN 3rd downLV offense · TEN defense DEF +8 LV 34% #29 TEN #21 42%
LV Red zoneLV offense · TEN defense OFF +3 LV 56% #27 TEN #30 71%
LV 3rd downTEN offense · LV defense DEF +2 TEN 32% #32 LV #30 47%
TEN Pass pro vs rushLV offense · TEN defense RUSH +2 LV 3.2 #27 TEN #25 1.9 Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #11
TEN Pass attackLV offense · TEN defense DEF +0 LV -0.19 #29 TEN #29 +0.17
TEN Pass yardsLV offense · TEN defense DEF +0 LV 195 #26 TEN #26 248

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

LV DEFENSE TEN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 37% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units TEN offense against what it runs into

TEN OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 LV DEFENSE

TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.

-0.22 #31 Pass attack DEF +9 #22 +0.08
-0.06 #27 Run game DEF +13 #14 -0.04
191 #29 Pass yards DEF +16 #13 214
93 #30 Rush yards DEF +13 #17 117
3.3 #27 Pass pro vs rush even #21 2.1
32% #32 3rd down even #30 47%
61% #20 Red zone DEF +9 #11 59%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

TENpass pro rush +22 LVpass rush
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona
RTJC Latham98%
Maxx Crosby DE 10.0 sk#15
Malcolm Koonce DE 4.5 sk#79
Kwity Paye DE 4.0 sk#88
3.2 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
TENrun block front +20 LVrun D
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona
RTJC Latham98%
Jonah Laulu LDE 8.0 tfl#80
Adam Butler NT 3.0 tfl#286
Tonka Hemingway RDE 5.0 tfl#193
Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl#2
Nakobe Dean LILB 7.0 tfl#105
91 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 111