no sides on this game yet · the record
LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out
LV win probability
ours 64%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TEN 19 – LV 24 · LV -4.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LV -1.5
LV −4.7
2/10
—at the line
| book | LV | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
42.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
13 designations · as of 8:00 PM
TEN · 8
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Joshua Williams | CB | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | DE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Cedric Gray | LB | OUT | Concussion |
| Dorian Mausi | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jaylen Harrell | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Milo Eifler | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kendell Brooks | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Andre James | C | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
LV · 5
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Brock Bowers | TE | OUT | Knee - Meniscus |
|
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays | with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
| |||
| Carter Runyon | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Keyron Crawford | DE | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Darien Porter | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Foot |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LV
Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · LV defense
TEN 3.2 #29
LV #7 2.8
Maxx Crosby DE 10.0 sk #15
LV
Run block vs frontTEN offense · LV defense
TEN 91 #31
LV #11 111
Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
LV
Pass yardsTEN offense · LV defense
TEN 191 #29
LV #13 214
TEN
Run block vs frontLV offense · TEN defense
LV 83 #32
TEN #19 120
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #6
LV
Run gameTEN offense · LV defense
TEN -0.06 #27
LV #14 -0.04
LV
Pass attackTEN offense · LV defense
TEN -0.22 #31
LV #22 +0.08
LV
Red zoneTEN offense · LV defense
TEN 61% #20
LV #11 59%
TEN
Run gameLV offense · TEN defense
LV -0.26 #32
TEN #23 +0.02
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
TEN
3rd downLV offense · TEN defense
LV 34% #29
TEN #21 42%
LV
Red zoneLV offense · TEN defense
LV 56% #27
TEN #30 71%
LV
3rd downTEN offense · LV defense
TEN 32% #32
LV #30 47%
TEN
Pass pro vs rushLV offense · TEN defense
LV 3.2 #27
TEN #25 1.9
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #11
TEN
Pass attackLV offense · TEN defense
LV -0.19 #29
TEN #29 +0.17
TEN
Pass yardsLV offense · TEN defense
LV 195 #26
TEN #26 248
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TEN offense against what it runs into
TEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LV DEFENSE
TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
DEF +9
#22 +0.08
-0.06 #27
Run game
DEF +13
#14 -0.04
191 #29
Pass yards
DEF +16
#13 214
93 #30
Rush yards
DEF +13
#17 117
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
even
#21 2.1
32% #32
3rd down
even
#30 47%
61% #20
Red zone
DEF +9
#11 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TENpass pro
rush +22
LVpass rush
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sk#15
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sk#79
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sk#88
3.2 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
TENrun block
front +20
LVrun D
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Jonah Laulu LDE
8.0 tfl#80
Adam Butler NT
3.0 tfl#286
Tonka Hemingway RDE
5.0 tfl#193
Maxx Crosby WLB
28.0 tfl#2
Nakobe Dean LILB
7.0 tfl#105
91 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 111
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LV offense against what it runs into
LV OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC TEN DEFENSE
TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
even
#29 +0.17
-0.26 #32
Run game
DEF +9
#23 +0.02
195 #26
Pass yards
even
#26 248
77 #32
Rush yards
DEF +17
#15 115
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +19
#13 2.5
34% #29
3rd down
DEF +8
#21 42%
56% #27
Red zone
even
#30 71%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LVpass pro
even
TENpass rush
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sk#11
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sk#31
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sk#64
3.2 #27sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 1.9
LVrun block
front +13
TENrun D
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
John Franklin-Myers LDE
6.0 tfl#134
Jeffery Simmons LDT
17.0 tfl#6
Jordan Elliott RDT
1.0 tfl#631
Jermaine Johnson II RDE
5.0 tfl#170
Cedric Gray WLB
7.0 tfl#115
83 #32rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 120