Tennessee Titans
@
Las Vegas Raiders
MODEL LV 56%
Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 16:05
· Allegiant Stadium (dome)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: TEN 1 – 1 LV
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
TEN OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
LV OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
TEN OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
DEF +8
#23 +0.08
-0.06 #27
Run game
DEF +13
#14 -0.04
191 #29
Pass yards
DEF +16
#13 214
93 #30
Rush yards
DEF +13
#17 117
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
even
#21 2.1
32% #32
3rd down
even
#30 47%
61% #20
Red zone
DEF +9
#11 59%
LV OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
even
#29 +0.17
-0.26 #32
Run game
DEF +9
#23 +0.01
195 #26
Pass yards
even
#26 248
77 #32
Rush yards
DEF +17
#15 115
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +18
#14 2.5
34% #29
3rd down
DEF +8
#21 42%
56% #27
Red zone
even
#30 71%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
TEN PASS RUSH
vs
LV PASS PRO
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sacks '25
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sacks '25
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sacks '25
3.8 #32
sacks allowed /g
#21 2.5
LV PASS RUSH
vs
TEN PASS PRO
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sacks '25
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sacks '25
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sacks '25
3.3 #27
sacks allowed /g
#14 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
TEN
Cam Ward QB
vs #23 PASS D
186.4 pass y/g 5/10
Tony Pollard RB
vs #14 RUN D
63.6 rush y/g 4/10
Carnell Tate WR1
vs #23 PASS D
— rec y/g
Wan'Dale Robinson WR2
2025: NYG
vs #23 PASS D
63.4 rec y/g 3/10
Calvin Ridley WR3
vs #23 PASS D
43.3 rec y/g 2/7
Gunnar Helm TE
vs #23 PASS D
22.3 rec y/g 6/10
LV
Kirk Cousins QB
2025: ATL
vs #29 PASS D
172.1 pass y/g 6/10
Ashton Jeanty RB
vs #23 RUN D
57.4 rush y/g 4/10
Tre Tucker WR1
vs #29 PASS D
40.9 rec y/g 3/10
Jalen Nailor WR2
2025: MIN
vs #29 PASS D
26.1 rec y/g 4/10
Jack Bech WR3
vs #29 PASS D
16.0 rec y/g 5/10
Brock Bowers TE
vs #29 PASS D
56.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.