Cleveland Browns
@
Baltimore Ravens
DIV
MODEL BAL 70%
Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 13:00
· M&T Bank Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: CLE 4 – 6 BAL
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CLE OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
BAL OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CLE OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
DEF +11
#21 +0.07
-0.05 #25
Run game
DEF +18
#7 -0.05
185 #31
Pass yards
even
#29 259
97 #27
Rush yards
DEF +17
#10 107
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
even
#30 1.8
34% #28
3rd down
DEF +18
#10 38%
55% #28
Red zone
DEF +21
#7 55%
BAL OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
DEF +20
#4 -0.13
+0.10 #2
Run game
even
#5 -0.05
193 #28
Pass yards
DEF +25
#3 189
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +14
#16 116
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +18
#3 3.1
41% #15
3rd down
even
#8 37%
60% #22
Red zone
even
#20 66%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CLE PASS RUSH
vs
BAL PASS PRO
Jared Verse DE
8.5 sacks '25
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sacks '25
Alex Wright DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.6 #21
sacks allowed /g
#30 3.1
BAL PASS RUSH
vs
CLE PASS PRO
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sacks '25
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sacks '25
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sacks '25
3.0 #26
sacks allowed /g
#3 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CLE
Deshaun Watson QB
vs #21 PASS D
— pass y/g
Quinshon Judkins RB
vs #7 RUN D
59.1 rush y/g 3/10
Jerry Jeudy WR1
vs #21 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 4/10
KC Concepcion WR2
vs #21 PASS D
— rec y/g
Denzel Boston WR3
vs #21 PASS D
— rec y/g
Harold Fannin Jr. TE
vs #21 PASS D
45.7 rec y/g 3/10
BAL
Lamar Jackson QB
vs #4 PASS D
196.1 pass y/g 4/10
Derrick Henry RB
vs #5 RUN D
93.8 rush y/g 7/10
Zay Flowers WR1
vs #4 PASS D
71.2 rec y/g 5/10
Rashod Bateman WR2
vs #4 PASS D
17.2 rec y/g 3/10
Devontez Walker WR3
vs #4 PASS D
17.0 rec y/g 4/8
Mark Andrews TE
vs #4 PASS D
24.8 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.