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Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens ★ DIV · AFC NORTH ★

Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 13:00 · M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CLE 4 – 6 BAL
no sides on this game yet · the record
CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Dylan Sampson RB out → Raheim Sanders    BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman
BAL win probability
ours 72% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CLE 19 – BAL 26 · BAL -7.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Ravensspread · margin, last 10
BAL -10.25
BAL −7.5
4/10
at the line
bookBALCLE
DK
CZR
Ravenstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

17 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CLE · 9
Dillon GabrielQBOUTBack · IR
Dylan SampsonRBOUTKnee
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Parker BrailsfordCOUTThumb
Elijah ChatmanDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kalia DavisDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kendrick GreenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Teven JenkinsGOUTBack
Edefuan UlofoshioLBOUTBiceps · IR
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBOUTNeck
BAL · 8
Adam RandallRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Devontez WalkerWROUTGroin
Ja'Kobi LaneWRDOUBTFULWrist
Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Zay FlowersWRQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Bilhal KoneCBOUTLower Body · IR
Nnamdi MadubuikeDTOUTNeck
Teddye BuchananLBOUTKnee - ACL
T.J. TampaCBQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CLE Pass yardsBAL offense · CLE defense DEF +25 BAL 193 #28 CLE #3 189
BAL Red zoneCLE offense · BAL defense DEF +21 CLE 55% #28 BAL #7 55%
CLE Pass attackBAL offense · CLE defense DEF +20 BAL -0.04 #24 CLE #4 -0.13
BAL Run block vs frontCLE offense · BAL defense FRONT +19 CLE 96 #27 BAL #8 106
BAL 3rd downCLE offense · BAL defense DEF +18 CLE 34% #28 BAL #10 38%
BAL Run gameCLE offense · BAL defense DEF +18 CLE -0.05 #25 BAL #7 -0.05
BAL Run block vs frontBAL offense · CLE defense LINE +17 BAL 162 #1 CLE #18 118
CLE Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · CLE defense RUSH +12 BAL 2.5 #20 CLE #8 2.6
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
BAL Pass attackCLE offense · BAL defense DEF +11 CLE -0.29 #32 BAL #21 +0.07
CLE 3rd downBAL offense · CLE defense DEF +7 BAL 41% #15 CLE #8 37%
BAL Run gameBAL offense · CLE defense OFF +3 BAL +0.10 #2 CLE #5 -0.05
BAL Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · BAL defense RUSH +2 CLE 3.3 #30 BAL #28 1.8
BAL Pass yardsCLE offense · BAL defense DEF +2 CLE 185 #31 BAL #29 259
CLE Red zoneBAL offense · CLE defense DEF +2 BAL 60% #22 CLE #20 66%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

BAL DEFENSE CLE OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CLE offense against what it runs into

CLE OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC BAL DEFENSE

CLE offence: Tommy Rees called these → Travis Switzer calls it now.
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.

-0.29 #32 Pass attack DEF +11 #21 +0.07
-0.05 #25 Run game DEF +18 #7 -0.05
185 #31 Pass yards even #29 259
97 #27 Rush yards DEF +17 #10 107
3.0 #26 Pass pro vs rush even #28 1.8
34% #28 3rd down DEF +18 #10 38%
55% #28 Red zone DEF +21 #7 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CLEpass pro even BALpass rush
LTSpencer Fano
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Calais Campbell DE 6.5 sk#46
Travis Jones DT 5.0 sk#69
Tavius Robinson LB 4.5 sk#79
3.3 #30sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
CLErun block front +19 BALrun D
LTSpencer Fano
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE 2.0 tfl#428
Travis Jones NT 9.0 tfl#53
Calais Campbell RDE 9.0 tfl#57
Tavius Robinson WLB 3.0 tfl#330
Roquan Smith LILB 5.0 tfl#172
96 #27rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 106