no sides on this game yet · the record
LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR d · Derius Davis WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston
MIA win probability
ours 45%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAC 23 – MIA 21 · LAC -1.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
MIA +7
MIA +1.7
5/10
—at the line
| book | MIA | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
2/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
12 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
LAC · 8
| Scott Matlock | FB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | DOUBTFUL | Hamstring |
| Derius Davis | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ribs |
|
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays | with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Deane Leonard | CB | OUT | Abdomen |
| Denzel Perryman | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Isaiah World | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Elijah Molden | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
MIA · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Kenneth Grant | DT | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Kyle Louis | LB | OUT | Knee |
| Trey Moore | LB | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Ronnie Harrison Jr. | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAC
3rd downMIA offense · LAC defense
MIA 35% #26
LAC #4 35%
LAC
Pass yardsMIA offense · LAC defense
MIA 195 #25
LAC #4 195
LAC
Run gameMIA offense · LAC defense
MIA -0.03 #21
LAC #4 -0.07
LAC
Run gameLAC offense · MIA defense
LAC +0.02 #11
MIA #27 +0.04
LAC
3rd downLAC offense · MIA defense
LAC 46% #4
MIA #18 41%
LAC
Pass attackMIA offense · LAC defense
MIA -0.01 #20
LAC #9 -0.09
MIA
Red zoneLAC offense · MIA defense
LAC 52% #30
MIA #19 66%
LAC
Red zoneMIA offense · LAC defense
MIA 64% #14
LAC #3 52%
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
LAC
Run block vs frontLAC offense · MIA defense
LAC 117 #16
MIA #26 132
LAC
Run block vs frontMIA offense · LAC defense
MIA 115 #19
LAC #9 107
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
LAC
Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · LAC defense
MIA 2.7 #21
LAC #15 2.3
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
LAC
Pass yardsLAC offense · MIA defense
LAC 233 #15
MIA #18 231
MIA
Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · MIA defense
LAC 3.4 #31
MIA #30 1.8
MIA
Pass attackLAC offense · MIA defense
LAC -0.05 #26
MIA #26 +0.13
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAC offense against what it runs into
LAC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC MIA DEFENSE
LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.
MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
even
#26 +0.13
+0.02 #11
Run game
OFF +16
#27 +0.04
233 #15
Pass yards
even
#18 231
122 #12
Rush yards
OFF +14
#26 132
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +15
#15 2.3
46% #4
3rd down
OFF +14
#18 41%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +11
#19 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LACpass pro
even
MIApass rush
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sk#60
Clelin Ferrell DE
4.0 sk#97
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sk#93
3.4 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
LACrun block
line +10
MIArun D
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Chop Robinson LDE
4.0 tfl#278
Jordan Phillips LDT
2.0 tfl#408
Zach Sieler RDT
10.0 tfl#45
Josh Uche RDE
2.0 tfl#453
Jordyn Brooks WLB
13.0 tfl#16
117 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIA offense against what it runs into
MIA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC LAC DEFENSE
MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.
LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
DEF +11
#9 -0.09
-0.03 #21
Run game
DEF +17
#4 -0.07
195 #25
Pass yards
DEF +21
#4 195
120 #13
Rush yards
even
#8 105
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
even
#10 2.6
35% #26
3rd down
DEF +22
#4 35%
64% #14
Red zone
DEF +11
#3 52%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MIApass pro
even
LACpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sk#55
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sk#64
2.7 #21sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
MIArun block
front +10
LACrun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Teair Tart LDE
4.0 tfl#268
Dalvin Tomlinson NT
3.0 tfl#319
Jamaree Caldwell RDE
5.0 tfl#170
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB
20.0 tfl#4
Daiyan Henley LILB
5.0 tfl#185
115 #19rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#9 107