Los Angeles Chargers
@
Miami Dolphins
MODEL MIA 48%
Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 13:00
· Hard Rock Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: LAC 2 – 1 MIA
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
LAC OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
MIA OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
LAC OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
even
#26 +0.13
+0.02 #11
Run game
OFF +16
#27 +0.04
233 #15
Pass yards
even
#18 231
122 #12
Rush yards
OFF +14
#26 132
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#16 2.3
46% #4
3rd down
OFF +14
#18 41%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +11
#19 66%
MIA OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
DEF +11
#9 -0.09
-0.03 #21
Run game
DEF +17
#4 -0.07
195 #25
Pass yards
DEF +21
#4 195
120 #13
Rush yards
even
#8 105
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
even
#10 2.6
35% #26
3rd down
DEF +22
#4 35%
64% #14
Red zone
DEF +11
#3 52%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
LAC PASS RUSH
vs
MIA PASS PRO
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
14.0 sacks '25
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sacks '25
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sacks '25
2.2 #17
sacks allowed /g
#16 2.6
MIA PASS RUSH
vs
LAC PASS PRO
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sacks '25
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sacks '25
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sacks '25
3.5 #30
sacks allowed /g
#10 2.3
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
LAC
Justin Herbert QB
vs #26 PASS D
228.6 pass y/g 3/10
Omarion Hampton RB
vs #27 RUN D
54.4 rush y/g 5/10
Ladd McConkey WR1
vs #26 PASS D
48.3 rec y/g 3/10
Quentin Johnston WR2
vs #26 PASS D
53.9 rec y/g 2/10
Tre' Harris WR3
vs #26 PASS D
20.2 rec y/g 4/10
Oronde Gadsden TE
vs #26 PASS D
43.4 rec y/g 2/10
MIA
Malik Willis QB
2025: GB
vs #9 PASS D
105.5 pass y/g 2/4
De'Von Achane RB
vs #4 RUN D
84.4 rush y/g 4/10
Malik Washington WR1
vs #9 PASS D
18.6 rec y/g 5/10
Jalen Tolbert WR2
2025: DAL
vs #9 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 4/10
Tutu Atwell WR3
2025: LAR
vs #9 PASS D
24.0 rec y/g 2/8
Greg Dulcich TE
vs #9 PASS D
37.2 rec y/g 5/9
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.