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Week 16 · 2026-12-27 · 13:00 · Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: LAC 2 – 1 MIA
no sides on this game yet · the record
LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR d · Derius Davis WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston
MIA win probability
ours 45% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAC 23 – MIA 21 · LAC -1.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Dolphinsspread · margin, last 10
MIA +7
MIA +1.7
5/10
at the line
bookMIALAC
DK
CZR
Dolphinstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
2/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
LAC · 8
Scott MatlockFBOUTUndisclosed · IR
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWRDOUBTFULHamstring
Derius DavisWRQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
Ladd McConkeyWRQUESTIONABLERibs
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays  |  with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Deane LeonardCBOUTAbdomen
Denzel PerrymanLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Isaiah WorldOTOUTKnee
Elijah MoldenCBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
MIA · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Kenneth GrantDTOUTLeg · IR
Kyle LouisLBOUTKnee
Trey MooreLBOUTAnkle · IR
Ronnie Harrison Jr.LBQUESTIONABLEHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAC 3rd downMIA offense · LAC defense DEF +22 MIA 35% #26 LAC #4 35%
LAC Pass yardsMIA offense · LAC defense DEF +21 MIA 195 #25 LAC #4 195
LAC Run gameMIA offense · LAC defense DEF +17 MIA -0.03 #21 LAC #4 -0.07
LAC Run gameLAC offense · MIA defense OFF +16 LAC +0.02 #11 MIA #27 +0.04
LAC 3rd downLAC offense · MIA defense OFF +14 LAC 46% #4 MIA #18 41%
LAC Pass attackMIA offense · LAC defense DEF +11 MIA -0.01 #20 LAC #9 -0.09
MIA Red zoneLAC offense · MIA defense DEF +11 LAC 52% #30 MIA #19 66%
LAC Red zoneMIA offense · LAC defense DEF +11 MIA 64% #14 LAC #3 52%
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
LAC Run block vs frontLAC offense · MIA defense LINE +10 LAC 117 #16 MIA #26 132 Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl #14
LAC Run block vs frontMIA offense · LAC defense FRONT +10 MIA 115 #19 LAC #9 107 Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #5
LAC Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · LAC defense RUSH +6 MIA 2.7 #21 LAC #15 2.3 Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
LAC Pass yardsLAC offense · MIA defense OFF +3 LAC 233 #15 MIA #18 231
MIA Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · MIA defense RUSH +1 LAC 3.4 #31 MIA #30 1.8
MIA Pass attackLAC offense · MIA defense DEF +0 LAC -0.05 #26 MIA #26 +0.13

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

MIA DEFENSE LAC OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LAC offense against what it runs into

LAC OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC MIA DEFENSE

LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.
MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.

-0.05 #26 Pass attack even #26 +0.13
+0.02 #11 Run game OFF +16 #27 +0.04
233 #15 Pass yards even #18 231
122 #12 Rush yards OFF +14 #26 132
3.5 #30 Pass pro vs rush DEF +15 #15 2.3
46% #4 3rd down OFF +14 #18 41%
52% #30 Red zone DEF +11 #19 66%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LACpass pro even MIApass rush
LTRashawn Slater
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Zach Sieler DE 5.5 sk#63
Clelin Ferrell DE 4.0 sk#91
Chop Robinson LB 4.0 sk#107
3.4 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
LACrun block line +10 MIArun D
LTRashawn Slater
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Chop Robinson LDE 4.0 tfl#209
Jordan Phillips LDT 2.0 tfl#413
Zach Sieler RDT 10.0 tfl#37
Josh Uche RDE 2.0 tfl#421
Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl#14
117 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132