no sides on this game yet · the record
PHI Eli Stowers TE out DAL Malik Davis RB out
DAL win probability
ours 46%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PHI 25 – DAL 24 · PHI -1.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DAL -1.5
DAL +1.3
4/10
—at the line
| book | DAL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| DK | ||
| FD | ||
| SCORE |
49.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR | ||
| FD |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
PHI · 5
| Eli Stowers | TE | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jakorian Bennett | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Landon Dickerson | G | OUT | Knee |
| Jonathan Greenard | LB | OUT | Pectoral |
| Andre' Sam | S | OUT | Foot · IR |
DAL · 5
| Malik Davis | RB | OUT | Hip · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Devin Moore | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Tyler Smith | G | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Malik Hooker | S | DOUBTFUL | Forearm |
| DeMarvion Overshown | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PHI
Red zonePHI offense · DAL defense
PHI 74% #2
DAL #31 72%
PHI
Pass attackPHI offense · DAL defense
PHI +0.04 #13
DAL #31 +0.22
PHI
Run gamePHI offense · DAL defense
PHI +0.01 #14
DAL #31 +0.09
DAL
3rd downDAL offense · PHI defense
DAL 43% #8
PHI #22 42%
DAL
Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · PHI defense
DAL 1.5 #5
PHI #19 2.1
PHI
Run block vs frontPHI offense · DAL defense
PHI 119 #13
DAL #25 131
PHI
3rd downPHI offense · DAL defense
PHI 38% #21
DAL #31 48%
DAL
Run block vs frontDAL offense · PHI defense
DAL 119 #12
PHI #22 126
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
PHI
Pass yardsPHI offense · DAL defense
PHI 206 #23
DAL #32 266
PHI
Red zoneDAL offense · PHI defense
DAL 62% #17
PHI #10 59%
PHI
Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · DAL defense
PHI 2.2 #17
DAL #23 2.0
DAL
Pass yardsDAL offense · PHI defense
DAL 279 #1
PHI #6 204
DAL
Run gameDAL offense · PHI defense
DAL +0.01 #15
PHI #16 -0.02
PHI
Pass attackDAL offense · PHI defense
DAL +0.16 #5
PHI #5 -0.12
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PHI offense against what it runs into
PHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC DAL DEFENSE
PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
OFF +18
#31 +0.22
+0.01 #14
Run game
OFF +17
#31 +0.09
206 #23
Pass yards
OFF +9
#32 266
117 #18
Rush yards
even
#23 125
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +13
#25 2.0
38% #21
3rd down
OFF +10
#31 48%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +29
#31 72%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PHIpass pro
even
DALpass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Von Miller OLB
9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sk#34
James Houston DE
5.5 sk#61
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#23 2.0
PHIrun block
line +12
DALrun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Quinnen Williams LDE
10.0 tfl#36
Otito Ogbonnia NT
3.0 tfl#331
Kenny Clark RDE
6.0 tfl#151
Rashan Gary WLB
7.0 tfl#92
DeMarvion Overshown LILB
1.0 tfl#553
119 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 131
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DAL offense against what it runs into
DAL OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
PHI DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
even
#5 -0.12
+0.01 #15
Run game
even
#16 -0.02
279 #1
Pass yards
even
#6 204
126 #9
Rush yards
OFF +13
#22 124
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
even
#12 2.5
43% #8
3rd down
OFF +14
#22 42%
62% #17
Red zone
even
#10 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DALpass pro
line +14
PHIpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sk#46
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sk#56
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sk#82
1.5 #5sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
DALrun block
line +10
PHIrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Jalen Carter LDE
5.0 tfl#207
Moro Ojomo RDE
6.0 tfl#137
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB
1.0 tfl#471
Zack Baun LILB
7.0 tfl#105
Jihaad Campbell RILB
2.0 tfl#379
119 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 126