no sides on this game yet · the record
GB Josh Jacobs RB out · J. Michael Sturdivant WR out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q LAR Davis Allen TE q
LAR win probability
ours 62%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected GB 21 – LAR 25 · LAR -4.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LAR -5.25
LAR −4.1
5/10
—at the line
| book | LAR | GB |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| DK |
48.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
13 designations · as of 8:00 PM
GB · 11
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OUT | Personal |
| J. Michael Sturdivant | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Savion Williams | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Josh Whyle | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Neck |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Anthony Campbell | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jordon Riley | DT | OUT | Achilles |
| Warren Brinson | DT | OUT | Calf |
| Aaron Banks | G | OUT | Knee |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | OUT | Achilles |
| Travis Glover | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Brandon Cisse | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
LAR · 2
| Davis Allen | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Head |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Myles Garrett | DE | OUT | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR
Pass attackLAR offense · GB defense
LAR +0.23 #2
GB #23 +0.08
LAR
Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · GB defense
LAR 1.1 #1
GB #20 2.1
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
GB
Pass pro vs rushGB offense · LAR defense
GB 1.7 #7
LAR #18 2.2
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #9
LAR
Red zoneLAR offense · GB defense
LAR 68% #6
GB #17 64%
LAR
Run block vs frontLAR offense · GB defense
LAR 126 #7
GB #17 118
LAR
Run gameLAR offense · GB defense
LAR +0.03 #7
GB #17 -0.02
LAR
Pass yardsLAR offense · GB defense
LAR 277 #2
GB #10 207
LAR
Red zoneGB offense · LAR defense
GB 63% #16
LAR #8 56%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
GB
Pass attackGB offense · LAR defense
GB +0.23 #3
LAR #10 -0.07
LAR
Run gameGB offense · LAR defense
GB -0.01 #19
LAR #12 -0.04
GB
3rd downGB offense · LAR defense
GB 49% #2
LAR #6 36%
GB
Run block vs frontGB offense · LAR defense
GB 120 #15
LAR #18 120
GB
Pass yardsGB offense · LAR defense
GB 226 #18
LAR #20 235
GB
3rd downLAR offense · GB defense
LAR 40% #16
GB #16 41%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units GB offense against what it runs into
GB OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LAR DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
even
#10 -0.07
-0.01 #19
Run game
even
#12 -0.04
226 #18
Pass yards
even
#20 235
120 #15
Rush yards
even
#12 111
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
even
#9 2.8
49% #2
3rd down
even
#6 36%
63% #16
Red zone
DEF +8
#8 56%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
GBpass pro
line +11
LARpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB
12.0 sk#9
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sk#40
1.7 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
GBrun block
even
LARrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Kobie Turner LDE
9.0 tfl#54
Poona Ford NT
4.0 tfl#251
Aaron Donald RDE
—
Byron Young WLB
12.0 tfl#19
Nate Landman LILB
8.0 tfl#86
120 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#18 120
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAR offense against what it runs into
LAR OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC GB DEFENSE
LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
OFF +21
#23 +0.08
+0.03 #7
Run game
OFF +10
#17 -0.02
277 #2
Pass yards
OFF +8
#10 207
127 #7
Rush yards
OFF +11
#18 118
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +18
#20 2.1
40% #16
3rd down
even
#16 41%
68% #6
Red zone
OFF +11
#17 64%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LARpass pro
line +19
GBpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sk#105
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sk#117
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.1
LARrun block
line +10
GBrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Karl Brooks LDE
1.0 tfl#583
Javon Hargrave NT
4.0 tfl#268
Devonte Wyatt RDE
6.0 tfl#144
Lukas Van Ness WLB
3.0 tfl#295
Edgerrin Cooper LILB
4.0 tfl#229
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 118