Green Bay Packers
@
Los Angeles Rams
MODEL LAR 65%
Week 12 · 2026-11-25 · 20:00
· SoFi Stadium (dome)
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: GB 4 – 0 LAR
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
GB OFFENSE
vs
LAR DEFENSE
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
LAR OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
GB OFFENSE
vs
LAR DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
even
#10 -0.07
-0.01 #19
Run game
even
#12 -0.04
226 #18
Pass yards
even
#20 235
120 #15
Rush yards
even
#12 111
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
even
#9 2.8
49% #2
3rd down
even
#6 36%
63% #15
Red zone
even
#8 56%
LAR OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
OFF +20
#22 +0.08
+0.03 #7
Run game
OFF +10
#17 -0.02
277 #2
Pass yards
OFF +8
#10 207
127 #7
Rush yards
OFF +11
#18 118
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +17
#19 2.1
40% #16
3rd down
even
#16 41%
68% #6
Red zone
OFF +11
#17 64%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
GB PASS RUSH
vs
LAR PASS PRO
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sacks '25
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sacks '25
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sacks '25
1.4 #2
sacks allowed /g
#9 2.1
LAR PASS RUSH
vs
GB PASS PRO
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sacks '25
Byron Young LB
12.0 sacks '25
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sacks '25
1.7 #7
sacks allowed /g
#19 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
GB
Jordan Love QB
vs #10 PASS D
231.5 pass y/g 6/10
Josh Jacobs RB
vs #12 RUN D
61.5 rush y/g 5/10
Christian Watson WR1
vs #10 PASS D
58.8 rec y/g 3/10
Jayden Reed WR2
vs #10 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 3/6
Matthew Golden WR3
vs #10 PASS D
29.7 rec y/g 3/10
Tucker Kraft TE
vs #10 PASS D
61.1 rec y/g 2/8
LAR
Matthew Stafford QB
vs #22 PASS D
282.1 pass y/g 4/10
Kyren Williams RB
vs #17 RUN D
71.8 rush y/g 5/10
Puka Nacua WR1
vs #22 PASS D
107.7 rec y/g 5/10
Davante Adams WR2
vs #22 PASS D
57.3 rec y/g 7/10
Jordan Whittington WR3
vs #22 PASS D
12.1 rec y/g 3/10
Colby Parkinson TE
vs #22 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 7/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.