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Week 12 · 2026-11-25 · 20:00 · SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: GB 4 – 0 LAR
no sides on this game yet · the record
GB Josh Jacobs RB out · J. Michael Sturdivant WR out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q    LAR Davis Allen TE q
LAR win probability
ours 62% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected GB 21 – LAR 25 · LAR -4.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Ramsspread · margin, last 10
LAR -5.25
LAR −4.1
5/10
at the line
bookLARGB
CZR
FD
SCORE
DK
Ramstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
FD
SCORE
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

13 designations · as of 8:00 PM
GB · 11
Josh JacobsRBOUTPersonal
J. Michael SturdivantWROUTCoach's Decision
Savion WilliamsWROUTAnkle · IR
Josh WhyleTEQUESTIONABLENeck
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Anthony CampbellDTOUTCoach's Decision
Jordon RileyDTOUTAchilles
Warren BrinsonDTOUTCalf
Aaron BanksGOUTKnee
Ty'Ron HopperLBOUTAchilles
Travis GloverOTOUTCoach's Decision
Brandon CisseCBQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
LAR · 2
Davis AllenTEQUESTIONABLEHead
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Myles GarrettDEOUTKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR Pass attackLAR offense · GB defense OFF +21 LAR +0.23 #2 GB #23 +0.08
LAR Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · GB defense LINE +19 LAR 1.1 #1 GB #20 2.1 Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
GB Pass pro vs rushGB offense · LAR defense LINE +11 GB 1.7 #7 LAR #18 2.2 Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #9
LAR Red zoneLAR offense · GB defense OFF +11 LAR 68% #6 GB #17 64%
LAR Run block vs frontLAR offense · GB defense LINE +10 LAR 126 #7 GB #17 118
LAR Run gameLAR offense · GB defense OFF +10 LAR +0.03 #7 GB #17 -0.02
LAR Pass yardsLAR offense · GB defense OFF +8 LAR 277 #2 GB #10 207
LAR Red zoneGB offense · LAR defense DEF +8 GB 63% #16 LAR #8 56%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
GB Pass attackGB offense · LAR defense OFF +7 GB +0.23 #3 LAR #10 -0.07
LAR Run gameGB offense · LAR defense DEF +7 GB -0.01 #19 LAR #12 -0.04
GB 3rd downGB offense · LAR defense OFF +4 GB 49% #2 LAR #6 36%
GB Run block vs frontGB offense · LAR defense LINE +3 GB 120 #15 LAR #18 120
GB Pass yardsGB offense · LAR defense OFF +2 GB 226 #18 LAR #20 235
GB 3rd downLAR offense · GB defense DEF +0 LAR 40% #16 GB #16 41%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

LAR DEFENSE GB OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 48% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units GB offense against what it runs into

GB OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 LAR DEFENSE
+0.23 #3 Pass attack even #10 -0.07
-0.01 #19 Run game even #12 -0.04
226 #18 Pass yards even #20 235
120 #15 Rush yards even #12 111
1.7 #7 Pass pro vs rush even #9 2.8
49% #2 3rd down even #6 36%
63% #16 Red zone DEF +8 #8 56%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

GBpass pro line +11 LARpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB 12.0 sk#9
Kobie Turner DE 7.0 sk#40
1.7 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
GBrun block even LARrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele
Kobie Turner LDE 9.0 tfl#54
Poona Ford NT 4.0 tfl#251
Aaron Donald RDE
Byron Young WLB 12.0 tfl#19
Nate Landman LILB 8.0 tfl#86
120 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#18 120