BallKnowMe
More
NFL
9–6 · 60% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins ★ DIV · AFC EAST ★

Week 12 · 2026-11-29 · 13:00 · Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NYJ 2 – 8 MIA
no sides on this game yet · the record
NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams
MIA win probability
ours 61% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYJ 21 – MIA 25 · MIA -3.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Dolphinsspread · margin, last 10
MIA -1.5
MIA −3.6
5/10
at the line
bookMIANYJ
DK
CZR
Dolphinstotal · points in the game, last 10
40.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

13 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NYJ · 9
Kene NwangwuRBOUTBack
Tim PatrickWROUTGroin · IR
Omar Cooper Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
6 more · line, defense, specialists
D'Angelo PondsCBOUTCalf
Tre BrownCBOUTFinger · IR
Joseph OssaiDEOUTFoot
Kingsley JonathanDEOUTThigh · IR
VJ PayneSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Minkah FitzpatrickSQUESTIONABLEGroin
MIA · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Kenneth GrantDTOUTLeg · IR
Kyle LouisLBOUTKnee
Trey MooreLBOUTAnkle · IR
Ronnie Harrison Jr.LBQUESTIONABLEHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NYJ Run block vs frontNYJ offense · MIA defense LINE +19 NYJ 126 #7 MIA #26 132 Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl #14
MIA Red zoneMIA offense · NYJ defense OFF +15 MIA 64% #14 NYJ #29 70%
NYJ 3rd downMIA offense · NYJ defense DEF +14 MIA 35% #26 NYJ #12 39%
MIA Pass yardsNYJ offense · MIA defense DEF +14 NYJ 164 #32 MIA #18 231
MIA Pass attackMIA offense · NYJ defense OFF +12 MIA -0.01 #20 NYJ #32 +0.25
MIA Red zoneNYJ offense · MIA defense DEF +10 NYJ 53% #29 MIA #19 66%
MIA 3rd downNYJ offense · MIA defense DEF +9 NYJ 35% #27 MIA #18 41%
NYJ Pass yardsMIA offense · NYJ defense DEF +9 MIA 195 #25 NYJ #16 226
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
MIA Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · NYJ defense LINE +6 MIA 2.7 #21 NYJ #27 1.9
NYJ Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · MIA defense LINE +5 NYJ 3.0 #25 MIA #30 1.8
MIA Run block vs frontMIA offense · NYJ defense LINE +5 MIA 115 #19 NYJ #24 129
MIA Run gameMIA offense · NYJ defense OFF +5 MIA -0.03 #21 NYJ #26 +0.03
MIA Pass attackNYJ offense · MIA defense DEF +2 NYJ -0.18 #28 MIA #26 +0.13
MIA Run gameNYJ offense · MIA defense DEF +2 NYJ -0.06 #29 MIA #27 +0.04

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

MIA DEFENSE NYJ OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NYJ offense against what it runs into

NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC MIA DEFENSE

NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.
MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.

-0.18 #28 Pass attack even #26 +0.13
-0.06 #29 Run game even #27 +0.04
164 #32 Pass yards DEF +14 #18 231
123 #10 Rush yards OFF +16 #26 132
3.5 #29 Pass pro vs rush DEF +14 #15 2.3
35% #27 3rd down DEF +9 #18 41%
53% #29 Red zone DEF +10 #19 66%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NYJpass pro even MIApass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Zach Sieler DE 5.5 sk#58
Clelin Ferrell DE 4.0 sk#91
Chop Robinson LB 4.0 sk#106
3.0 #25sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
NYJrun block line +19 MIArun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Chop Robinson LDE 4.0 tfl#253
Jordan Phillips LDT 2.0 tfl#415
Zach Sieler RDT 10.0 tfl#49
Josh Uche RDE 2.0 tfl#442
Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl#14
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132