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Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ★ DIV · NFC SOUTH ★

Week 12 · 2026-11-30 · 20:15 · Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CAR 2 – 8 TB
no sides on this game yet · the record
CAR Haynes King QB out · Trevor Etienne RB out · John Metchie III WR out · Ja'Tavion Sanders TE out    TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III
TB win probability
ours 66% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CAR 19 – TB 25 · TB -5.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Buccaneersspread · margin, last 10
TB -4
TB −5.4
1/10
at the line
bookTBCAR
DK
CZR
Buccaneerstotal · points in the game, last 10
44.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CAR · 11
Haynes KingQBOUTCoach's Decision
Trevor EtienneRBOUTAnkle · IR
John Metchie IIIWROUTCoach's Decision
Ja'Tavion SandersTEOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Cam JacksonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Brady ChristensenGOUTHamstring · IR
Bam Martin-ScottLBOUTHamstring · IR
Patrick Jones IILBOUTBack
Albert Reese IVOTOUTCoach's Decision
Taylor MotonOTOUTIllness
Zakee WheatleySOUTCoach's Decision
TB · 11
Sean TuckerRBOUTHamstring
David Sills VWROUTUndisclosed · IR
Jalen McMillanWROUTKnee
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays  |  with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Ayden GarnesCBOUTCoach's Decision
Josh HayesCBOUTKnee · IR
DeMonte CapehartDTOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah SimmonsDTOUTCoach's Decision
Billy SchrauthGOUTCoach's Decision
Mohamed KamaraLBOUTKnee · IR
Justin SkuleOTOUTOblique
Jacob ParrishCBQUESTIONABLEBack

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
TB 3rd downTB offense · CAR defense OFF +19 TB 42% #13 CAR #32 48%
TB Run gameCAR offense · TB defense DEF +19 CAR -0.03 #22 TB #3 -0.07
TB Run block vs frontCAR offense · TB defense FRONT +14 CAR 116 #19 TB #5 99
TB Pass pro vs rushTB offense · CAR defense LINE +13 TB 2.2 #17 CAR #30 1.8
TB 3rd downCAR offense · TB defense DEF +12 CAR 36% #25 TB #13 40%
TB Run gameTB offense · CAR defense OFF +12 TB +0.01 #12 CAR #24 +0.02
CAR Red zoneCAR offense · TB defense OFF +8 CAR 59% #24 TB #32 74%
CAR Red zoneTB offense · CAR defense DEF +7 TB 62% #19 CAR #12 60%
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
TB Pass attackCAR offense · TB defense DEF +5 CAR -0.05 #25 TB #20 +0.07
CAR Pass yardsTB offense · CAR defense DEF +5 TB 221 #19 CAR #14 215
CAR Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · TB defense LINE +4 CAR 2.1 #13 TB #17 2.2 Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #12
TB Pass attackTB offense · CAR defense OFF +2 TB -0.03 #22 CAR #24 +0.11
CAR Run block vs frontTB offense · CAR defense FRONT +1 TB 115 #21 CAR #20 123
TB Pass yardsCAR offense · TB defense DEF +0 CAR 194 #27 TB #27 255

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

TB DEFENSE CAR OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CAR offense against what it runs into

CAR OFFENSE 2025 TB DEFENSE
-0.05 #25 Pass attack even #20 +0.07
-0.03 #22 Run game DEF +19 #3 -0.07
194 #27 Pass yards even #27 255
116 #19 Rush yards DEF +14 #5 99
2.1 #13 Pass pro vs rush even #18 2.2
36% #25 3rd down DEF +12 #13 40%
59% #24 Red zone OFF +8 #32 74%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CARpass pro even TBpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk#12
Yaya Diaby LB 7.0 sk#37
Vita Vea DT 4.5 sk#83
2.1 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
CARrun block front +14 TBrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling
Calijah Kancey LDE 1.0 tfl#532
Vita Vea NT 7.0 tfl#119
A'Shawn Robinson RDE 3.0 tfl#358
Rueben Bain Jr. WLB
Alex Anzalone LILB 4.0 tfl#234
116 #19rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#5 99