Carolina Panthers
@
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DIV
MODEL TB 62%
Week 12 · 2026-11-30 · 20:15
· Raymond James Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: CAR 2 – 8 TB
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CAR OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
TB OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CAR OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
even
#20 +0.07
-0.03 #22
Run game
DEF +19
#3 -0.07
194 #27
Pass yards
even
#27 255
116 #19
Rush yards
DEF +14
#5 99
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
even
#18 2.2
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +12
#13 40%
59% #24
Red zone
OFF +8
#32 74%
TB OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
even
#24 +0.11
+0.01 #12
Run game
OFF +12
#24 +0.02
221 #19
Pass yards
even
#14 215
115 #21
Rush yards
even
#20 123
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +12
#28 1.8
42% #13
3rd down
OFF +19
#32 48%
62% #19
Red zone
even
#12 60%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CAR PASS RUSH
vs
TB PASS PRO
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sacks '25
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sacks '25
Nic Scourton LB
5.0 sacks '25
2.2 #16
sacks allowed /g
#18 1.8
TB PASS RUSH
vs
CAR PASS PRO
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sacks '25
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sacks '25
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sacks '25
2.1 #13
sacks allowed /g
#28 2.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CAR
Bryce Young QB
vs #20 PASS D
192.6 pass y/g 4/10
Chuba Hubbard RB
vs #3 RUN D
34.8 rush y/g 2/10
Tetairoa McMillan WR1
vs #20 PASS D
60.8 rec y/g 4/10
Jalen Coker WR2
vs #20 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 6/10
Xavier Legette WR3
vs #20 PASS D
23.2 rec y/g 2/10
Tommy Tremble TE
vs #20 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 3/10
TB
Baker Mayfield QB
vs #24 PASS D
217.2 pass y/g 3/10
Bucky Irving RB
vs #24 RUN D
58.8 rush y/g 7/10
Emeka Egbuka WR1
vs #24 PASS D
55.2 rec y/g 2/10
Chris Godwin Jr. WR2
vs #24 PASS D
40.0 rec y/g 3/9
Jalen McMillan WR3
vs #24 PASS D
44.5 rec y/g 1/4
Cade Otton TE
vs #24 PASS D
38.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.