no sides on this game yet · the record
CAR Haynes King QB out · Trevor Etienne RB out · John Metchie III WR out · Ja'Tavion Sanders TE out TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III
TB win probability
ours 66%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CAR 19 – TB 25 · TB -5.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
TB -4
TB −5.4
1/10
—at the line
| book | TB | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
44.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CAR · 11
| Haynes King | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Trevor Etienne | RB | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| John Metchie III | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cam Jackson | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Brady Christensen | G | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
| Bam Martin-Scott | LB | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
| Patrick Jones II | LB | OUT | Back |
| Albert Reese IV | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Taylor Moton | OT | OUT | Illness |
| Zakee Wheatley | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
TB · 11
| Sean Tucker | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| David Sills V | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | OUT | Knee |
|
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays | with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
| |||
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ayden Garnes | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Josh Hayes | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| DeMonte Capehart | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Simmons | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Billy Schrauth | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Mohamed Kamara | LB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Justin Skule | OT | OUT | Oblique |
| Jacob Parrish | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Back |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
TB
3rd downTB offense · CAR defense
TB 42% #13
CAR #32 48%
TB
Run gameCAR offense · TB defense
CAR -0.03 #22
TB #3 -0.07
TB
Run block vs frontCAR offense · TB defense
CAR 116 #19
TB #5 99
TB
Pass pro vs rushTB offense · CAR defense
TB 2.2 #17
CAR #30 1.8
TB
3rd downCAR offense · TB defense
CAR 36% #25
TB #13 40%
TB
Run gameTB offense · CAR defense
TB +0.01 #12
CAR #24 +0.02
CAR
Red zoneCAR offense · TB defense
CAR 59% #24
TB #32 74%
CAR
Red zoneTB offense · CAR defense
TB 62% #19
CAR #12 60%
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
TB
Pass attackCAR offense · TB defense
CAR -0.05 #25
TB #20 +0.07
CAR
Pass yardsTB offense · CAR defense
TB 221 #19
CAR #14 215
CAR
Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · TB defense
CAR 2.1 #13
TB #17 2.2
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #12
TB
Pass attackTB offense · CAR defense
TB -0.03 #22
CAR #24 +0.11
CAR
Run block vs frontTB offense · CAR defense
TB 115 #21
CAR #20 123
TB
Pass yardsCAR offense · TB defense
CAR 194 #27
TB #27 255
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CAR offense against what it runs into
CAR OFFENSE
2025
TB DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
even
#20 +0.07
-0.03 #22
Run game
DEF +19
#3 -0.07
194 #27
Pass yards
even
#27 255
116 #19
Rush yards
DEF +14
#5 99
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
even
#18 2.2
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +12
#13 40%
59% #24
Red zone
OFF +8
#32 74%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CARpass pro
even
TBpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sk#12
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sk#37
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sk#83
2.1 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
CARrun block
front +14
TBrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Calijah Kancey LDE
1.0 tfl#532
Vita Vea NT
7.0 tfl#119
A'Shawn Robinson RDE
3.0 tfl#358
Rueben Bain Jr. WLB
—
Alex Anzalone LILB
4.0 tfl#234
116 #19rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#5 99
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TB offense against what it runs into
TB OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
CAR DEFENSE
TB offence: Josh Grizzard called these → Zac Robinson calls it now.
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
even
#24 +0.11
+0.01 #12
Run game
OFF +12
#24 +0.02
221 #19
Pass yards
even
#14 215
115 #21
Rush yards
even
#20 123
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +13
#30 1.8
42% #13
3rd down
OFF +19
#32 48%
62% #19
Red zone
even
#12 60%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TBpass pro
line +13
CARpass rush
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sk#77
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sk#70
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sk#72
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
TBrun block
even
CARrun D
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Derrick Brown LDE
5.0 tfl#194
Lee Hunter NT
—
Bobby Brown III RDE
3.0 tfl#338
Patrick Jones II WLB
2.0 tfl#378
Devin Lloyd LILB
6.0 tfl#147
115 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#20 123