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Week 12 · 2026-11-29 · 16:25 · State Farm Stadium · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: WAS 2 – 0 ARI
no sides on this game yet · the record
WAS Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates    ARI James Conner RB out · Tip Reiman TE out
ARI win probability
ours 52% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected WAS 24 – ARI 25 · ARI -0.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Cardinalsspread · margin, last 10
ARI +4.25
ARI −0.5
3/10
at the line
bookARIWAS
DK
CZR
Cardinalstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 8:00 PM
WAS · 4
Chig OkonkwoTEQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Frankie LuvuLBQUESTIONABLEGroin
Jordan MageeLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Tyler OwensSQUESTIONABLEAnkle
ARI · 8
James ConnerRBOUTFoot · IR
Tip ReimanTEOUTAnkle
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Garrett WilliamsCBOUTAchilles
Kaleb ProctorDTOUTKnee - Meniscus · IR
Zachary CarterDTOUTKnee · IR
Isaiah AdamsGOUTKnee
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSOUTRibs
Kitan CrawfordSQUESTIONABLEAnkle

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ARI Pass yardsARI offense · WAS defense OFF +23 ARI 256 #5 WAS #28 257
WAS Red zoneWAS offense · ARI defense OFF +17 WAS 70% #4 ARI #21 67%
WAS Run block vs frontWAS offense · ARI defense LINE +17 WAS 134 #4 ARI #21 120 Josh Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl #14
WAS Pass pro vs rushARI offense · WAS defense RUSH +16 ARI 3.1 #26 WAS #10 2.6
ARI Pass attackARI offense · WAS defense OFF +13 ARI +0.00 #17 WAS #30 +0.20
WAS Run gameWAS offense · ARI defense OFF +12 WAS +0.02 #9 ARI #21 +0.01
ARI 3rd downARI offense · WAS defense OFF +11 ARI 42% #12 WAS #23 42%
WAS Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · ARI defense LINE +10 WAS 2.0 #11 ARI #21 2.0 Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #9
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
WAS Pass attackWAS offense · ARI defense OFF +9 WAS -0.01 #18 ARI #27 +0.15
WAS 3rd downWAS offense · ARI defense OFF +7 WAS 38% #22 ARI #29 45%
ARI Run block vs frontARI offense · WAS defense LINE +3 ARI 96 #28 WAS #31 141
ARI Red zoneARI offense · WAS defense OFF +2 ARI 56% #26 WAS #28 70%
ARI Pass yardsWAS offense · ARI defense DEF +0 WAS 196 #24 ARI #24 243
WAS Run gameARI offense · WAS defense DEF +0 ARI -0.06 #28 WAS #28 +0.07

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

ARI DEFENSE WAS OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units WAS offense against what it runs into

WAS OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 ARI DEFENSE

WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.

-0.01 #18 Pass attack OFF +9 #27 +0.15
+0.02 #9 Run game OFF +12 #21 +0.01
196 #24 Pass yards even #24 243
135 #4 Rush yards OFF +21 #25 127
2.2 #15 Pass pro vs rush OFF +14 #29 1.8
38% #22 3rd down even #29 45%
70% #4 Red zone OFF +17 #21 67%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

WASpass pro line +10 ARIpass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk#9
Roy Lopez DT 2.0 sk#235
Baron Browning LB 2.0 sk#191
2.0 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#21 2.0
WASrun block line +17 ARIrun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Josh Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl#14
Roy Lopez LDT 4.0 tfl#230
Walter Nolen III RDT 5.0 tfl#193
Dante Stills RDE 2.0 tfl#418
Jack Gibbens WLB 8.0 tfl#74
134 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 120