no sides on this game yet · the record
WAS Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates ARI James Conner RB out · Tip Reiman TE out
ARI win probability
ours 52%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected WAS 24 – ARI 25 · ARI -0.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
ARI +4.25
ARI −0.5
3/10
—at the line
| book | ARI | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
12 designations · as of 8:00 PM
WAS · 4
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Frankie Luvu | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
| Jordan Magee | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
| Tyler Owens | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
ARI · 8
| James Conner | RB | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Tip Reiman | TE | OUT | Ankle |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Garrett Williams | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Kaleb Proctor | DT | OUT | Knee - Meniscus · IR |
| Zachary Carter | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Isaiah Adams | G | OUT | Knee |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | S | OUT | Ribs |
| Kitan Crawford | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ARI
Pass yardsARI offense · WAS defense
ARI 256 #5
WAS #28 257
WAS
Red zoneWAS offense · ARI defense
WAS 70% #4
ARI #21 67%
WAS
Run block vs frontWAS offense · ARI defense
WAS 134 #4
ARI #21 120
Josh Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl #14
WAS
Pass pro vs rushARI offense · WAS defense
ARI 3.1 #26
WAS #10 2.6
ARI
Pass attackARI offense · WAS defense
ARI +0.00 #17
WAS #30 +0.20
WAS
Run gameWAS offense · ARI defense
WAS +0.02 #9
ARI #21 +0.01
ARI
3rd downARI offense · WAS defense
ARI 42% #12
WAS #23 42%
WAS
Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · ARI defense
WAS 2.0 #11
ARI #21 2.0
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #9
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
WAS
Pass attackWAS offense · ARI defense
WAS -0.01 #18
ARI #27 +0.15
WAS
3rd downWAS offense · ARI defense
WAS 38% #22
ARI #29 45%
ARI
Run block vs frontARI offense · WAS defense
ARI 96 #28
WAS #31 141
ARI
Red zoneARI offense · WAS defense
ARI 56% #26
WAS #28 70%
ARI
Pass yardsWAS offense · ARI defense
WAS 196 #24
ARI #24 243
WAS
Run gameARI offense · WAS defense
ARI -0.06 #28
WAS #28 +0.07
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units WAS offense against what it runs into
WAS OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ARI DEFENSE
WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
OFF +9
#27 +0.15
+0.02 #9
Run game
OFF +12
#21 +0.01
196 #24
Pass yards
even
#24 243
135 #4
Rush yards
OFF +21
#25 127
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +14
#29 1.8
38% #22
3rd down
even
#29 45%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +17
#21 67%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
WASpass pro
line +10
ARIpass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sk#9
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sk#235
Baron Browning LB
2.0 sk#191
2.0 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#21 2.0
WASrun block
line +17
ARIrun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Josh Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#14
Roy Lopez LDT
4.0 tfl#230
Walter Nolen III RDT
5.0 tfl#193
Dante Stills RDE
2.0 tfl#418
Jack Gibbens WLB
8.0 tfl#74
134 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 120
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ARI offense against what it runs into
ARI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC WAS DEFENSE
ARI offence: Drew Petzing called these → Nathaniel Hackett calls it now.
WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
OFF +13
#30 +0.20
-0.06 #28
Run game
even
#28 +0.07
256 #5
Pass yards
OFF +23
#28 257
93 #31
Rush yards
even
#30 142
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#14 2.5
42% #12
3rd down
OFF +11
#23 42%
56% #26
Red zone
even
#28 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ARIpass pro
rush +16
WASpass rush
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
7.5 sk#29
Odafe Oweh LB
7.5 sk#30
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sk#58
3.1 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
ARIrun block
even
WASrun D
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Tim Settle LDE
3.0 tfl#350
Daron Payne NT
7.0 tfl#98
Javon Kinlaw RDE
5.0 tfl#202
Odafe Oweh WLB
9.0 tfl#59
Frankie Luvu LILB
5.0 tfl#194
96 #28rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#31 141