Washington Commanders
@
Arizona Cardinals
MODEL ARI 54%
Week 12 · 2026-11-29 · 16:25
· State Farm Stadium
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: WAS 2 – 0 ARI
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
WAS OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
ARI OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
WAS OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
OFF +9
#27 +0.15
+0.02 #9
Run game
OFF +12
#21 +0.01
196 #24
Pass yards
even
#24 243
135 #4
Rush yards
OFF +21
#25 127
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +14
#29 1.8
38% #22
3rd down
even
#29 45%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +17
#21 67%
ARI OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
OFF +13
#30 +0.20
-0.06 #28
Run game
even
#28 +0.07
256 #5
Pass yards
OFF +23
#28 257
93 #31
Rush yards
even
#30 142
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +15
#13 2.5
42% #12
3rd down
OFF +11
#23 42%
56% #26
Red zone
even
#28 70%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
WAS PASS RUSH
vs
ARI PASS PRO
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
10.5 sacks '25
Odafe Oweh LB
10.5 sacks '25
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sacks '25
3.5 #28
sacks allowed /g
#29 2.5
ARI PASS RUSH
vs
WAS PASS PRO
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sacks '25
Jonah Williams DE
3.0 sacks '25
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sacks '25
2.2 #15
sacks allowed /g
#13 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
WAS
Jayden Daniels QB
vs #27 PASS D
180.3 pass y/g 4/7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
vs #21 RUN D
47.4 rush y/g 2/10
Terry McLaurin WR1
vs #27 PASS D
58.2 rec y/g 4/10
Antonio Williams WR2
vs #27 PASS D
— rec y/g
Luke McCaffrey WR3
vs #27 PASS D
22.6 rec y/g 4/9
Chig Okonkwo TE
2025: TEN
vs #27 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 6/10
ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB
vs #30 PASS D
240.4 pass y/g 8/10
Jeremiyah Love RB
vs #28 RUN D
— rush y/g
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR1
vs #30 PASS D
50.7 rec y/g 5/10
Michael Wilson WR2
vs #30 PASS D
59.2 rec y/g 6/10
Kendrick Bourne WR3
2025: SF
vs #30 PASS D
36.7 rec y/g 1/10
Trey McBride TE
vs #30 PASS D
72.9 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.